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wiseambitions
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Results for 10tp/40sl compounded at various risk % since 1/1/2011
2% +14% capital accumulation
5% +37%
10% +83%
15% +135%
20% +190%
25% +242%
This set has suffered some horrendous drawdown in the last 11 trades, losing 140 pips. Prior to this the growth was somewhat better, but this seems to be a good set for compounding.
2% +14% capital accumulation
5% +37%
10% +83%
15% +135%
20% +190%
25% +242%
This set has suffered some horrendous drawdown in the last 11 trades, losing 140 pips. Prior to this the growth was somewhat better, but this seems to be a good set for compounding.
Please can you remove all these information these is a public forum,no information about indicators .
And can you and all the others that have quoted the post remove the reference to the indicators please.
Jashfx
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Ok -- lets get this right.
Toatrader -- where you see stars above should not be published on this public forum. Please edit or remove post so as to not give away specifics to indicators.
Wise, I ran a couple of quick tests with Alpari @90% accuracy from 10 Jan 2011 thru today, using 25% risk on 40/10 (left) and Desereagle's 38 38 27 5 (1:1 ratio). Even with a significantly lower hit rate, the 38 38 out-performs the 40/10.
40/10 is a great pip machine if it remains very accurate, and if used for income. But I find it a poorer way to compound. (I tried this test on my own data for BST 2010 and the lots got so high on the 38 38 that the platform stopped trading at 150 lots).
40/10 can be great, but it's too tough for me personally (I'm a mental whimp). I would maybe consider it on a faster intraday system, with very high accuracy. But like I said before, my personal aim is the smoothest and quickest growth possible.
Edit: Test used FMT 4.3 at 6:15
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FMT for me this morning, (45-35-25-5) Forex.com-UK broker
6:15 start, short signal, No Trade
6:30 start, short signal, hit SL -47 pips
6:45 start, short signal, hit SL -24 pips (half lots)
total today, -71 pips..
total this week -163 pips.
must be the weather ?..
6:15 start, short signal, No Trade
6:30 start, short signal, hit SL -47 pips
6:45 start, short signal, hit SL -24 pips (half lots)
total today, -71 pips..
total this week -163 pips.
must be the weather ?..
wiseambitions
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Thanks, I'll try and forward test revised DesertEagle settings, and see what 38/38+BE does for my stats. I have to admit his 43/65 set doesn't do badly but the R/R ratio is a bit adrift.
Adamus
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Good question. Any institutional traders out there reading want to comment? Probably none reading, knowing the huge message through-put here.
As far as May's performance goes, the system is just out of synch at the moment. Unfortunately it can remain out of synch indefinitely ("the markets can remain irrational for longer than you can stay solvent....")
As far as when to bail out, as someone else asked, we should have made plans which answer that question already. Ooops, looks like I forgot too.
I was short today too. Ouch!
wiseambitions
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I wish I knew what it was, too.
We had a period in January where the market behaved very unpredictably and some writer on here came up with theory about the Chinese buying up US dollar bonds. These kind of activities are bound to be short lived, and I can't see why the FMT effect will not come back round to work for us again soon.
yes, but this morning we were very unlucky, the bottom indicator (you know the one
) just barely dipped below the line at the wrong time for us, otherwise it's NO Trade and no losses today..I am riding out the storm and still hoping for recovery and a profitable month. You have to look at the longer term with FMT and it will be worth it. IMO..
cheers !..
deserteagle
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Hi Coral and Wise!
Thanks for your analysis.
Just to say I do backtesting for specific time entries, in this case set 38/38/27/5 has been got just for 06:15 entry, and set 65/43/20 has been got for 06:30.
Cheers
With regards to the reduced risk poll (thanks pod for doing it) I find it interesting how most people are not going to reduce their exposure in this time of drawdown, quite honestly i'm an amateur (pro in the making?!) and am not sure what to do...
Ive read a lot of books now on trading though, including all the market wizard ones (recommend reading) and one thing all the top traders do in times of drawdowns/losing streaks is reduce their exposure to the market NOT increase it or keep it the same in the hope things turn around suddenly. They wait until things are back on track with a few winners then remain trading at old levels.
Another poll suggestion might be how many amateurs we have posting their opinions in here (im in that group) as i think it greatly affects the herd mentality as we all try to learn from each other...
Anyways, until then, heres "hoping" the month turns around "suddenly"
Ive read a lot of books now on trading though, including all the market wizard ones (recommend reading) and one thing all the top traders do in times of drawdowns/losing streaks is reduce their exposure to the market NOT increase it or keep it the same in the hope things turn around suddenly. They wait until things are back on track with a few winners then remain trading at old levels.
Another poll suggestion might be how many amateurs we have posting their opinions in here (im in that group) as i think it greatly affects the herd mentality as we all try to learn from each other...
Anyways, until then, heres "hoping" the month turns around "suddenly"
I have been a supporter of FMT since 9/2010. When I began trading the system I set a drawdown limit based on my trade size and would continue to trade the system until it reached that level. I can say that I am near that level and am evaluating the system now to determine if I will continue. I can say that I have made money with the system and complement the system for that. This is not a negative for the FMT but a business decision to decide whether or not to tie up capital with this system. I will continue to trade a small micro account regardless of what happens to see long term if it can survive and how it performs. Thanks to all the contributors of this forum.
With regards to the reduced risk poll (thanks pod for doing it) I find it interesting how most people are not going to reduce their exposure in this time of drawdown, quite honestly i'm an amateur (pro in the making?!) and am not sure what to do...
Ive read a lot of books now on trading though, including all the market wizard ones (recommend reading) and one thing all the top traders do in times of drawdowns/losing streaks is reduce their exposure to the market NOT increase it or keep it the same in the hope things turn around suddenly. They wait until things are back on track with a few winners then remain trading at old levels.
Another poll suggestion might be how many amateurs we have posting their opinions in here (im in that group) as i think it greatly affects the herd mentality as we all try to learn from each other...
Anyways, until then, heres "hoping" the month turns around "suddenly"
I am very much like you; new, learning, keen.
Where in the plan does one decide to reduce risk? When does a LWLLWLL.... streak become drawdown sufficient to reduce risk?
My 'Vanilla FMT' account is low-risk so I have left it to weather the storm. My higher risk 'play' money is burning though....
ive decided to reduce risk as of this morning. I was running at 3% risk, now reduced to 1% risk.
Hasn't helped that i started the scalping strategy (40/10)with 2% of my "main account" 4 days ago with 3 losers in a row.. one down to slippage, so i stopped that yesterday and thankfully saved myself another 2% this morning.
Currently I am total down 16% of my total initial investment as i went live beginning April. I understand some of the longer term players who are in profit over all not reducing risk, but sadly I dont have that luxury.
I'm sure the system will recover over the next few weeks, which when it does i will increase risk to normal 3% levels (are people really risking 10%+ per trade???!!)
I will of missed out on some profit in the meantime but id rather pay that price then see it decline anymore rapidly than it is.
Anyways, thats just my strategy due to my personal situation and finances, everyone is different and should trade in a style that suits them. That is critical to trading success... so ive been told :idea:
andycon
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thruster9121
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Definitely reduce your exposure until you've had a good few winning trades on the bounce.
What concerns me right now is that this system can only be successful when it wins more trades than it loses, rather than being successful from a good risk vs reward ratio. In addition to FMT, I trade on a daily time frame using price action with low risk (2%) and high potential reward (4-8%), which right now is much more profitable - even though I don't win a lot of trades!
FMT is currently losing more than it wins; add to this the 1:1 or worse risk vs reward ratio, it doesn't do much for a positive trading psychology.
What concerns me right now is that this system can only be successful when it wins more trades than it loses, rather than being successful from a good risk vs reward ratio. In addition to FMT, I trade on a daily time frame using price action with low risk (2%) and high potential reward (4-8%), which right now is much more profitable - even though I don't win a lot of trades!
FMT is currently losing more than it wins; add to this the 1:1 or worse risk vs reward ratio, it doesn't do much for a positive trading psychology.
