Tarhini_Trade
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haha, i was referring to what you think theyll say...but I guess youre saying that'll be the outcome no matter what
Pippy5000
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Here's what Gain Capital has to say..
"Summary Outlook: On Wednesday, December 16 at approximately 1415EST/1915GMT, the FOMC is widely expected to announce a steady Fed Funds target of between zero and 0.25%. There has been some speculation in recent days that the Fed may hike the discount rate (the emergency lending rate to banks) from 0.25% to 0.50%, but we think it's too soon for that shift. However, should they move on the discount rate, it would represent a marginal tightening of credit conditions, but should be viewed as another step in the exit process from extraordinary liquidity provision and not as a tightening of monetary policy, i.e. liquidity withdrawal, not a signal on rate hikes. Still, the effect on markets is likely to be risk-negative/USD positive as perceptions of tighter US monetary policy increase. The main area where the Fed may make some changes would be to extend the duration or increase the size of the asset purchase programs, but we also think this is unlikely. But if they did increase the scope of asset purchases, it would likely be taken as a risk-positive/USD negative, as it would be seen to be lending additional support to the housing market. Overall, we expect a very status-quo announcement that will retain the 'rates to remain low for an extended period' language on interest rates and generally note further improvement in the US economic recovery. After past meetings, reaffirming the commitment to low rates for an extended period has been a risk-positive/USD negative, and we expect that to be case tomorrow.
Trading Strategy: We would first note pre-holiday lethargy has already set in to markets, so if we get no surprises tomorrow, there may be only a negligible market reaction. Overall, we are looking for a relatively benign Fed, which should be good for risk sentiment and possibly dent some of the USD's recent strength. In a risk-positive outcome (stocks up/bond yields down) we would expect to see the JPY-crosses move higher, with the USD strengthening against the JPY, but coming under pressure against most others. In a risk-negative result (stocks down/yields up), we would look for the USD to weaken against JPY, but maintain recent strength against most other currencies, likely sending JPY-crosses lower. Lastly, we would note the key support zone in EUR/USD between 1.4450/4500 and the key resistance zone in USD/JPY between 90.20/70 as important levels to watch. "
"Summary Outlook: On Wednesday, December 16 at approximately 1415EST/1915GMT, the FOMC is widely expected to announce a steady Fed Funds target of between zero and 0.25%. There has been some speculation in recent days that the Fed may hike the discount rate (the emergency lending rate to banks) from 0.25% to 0.50%, but we think it's too soon for that shift. However, should they move on the discount rate, it would represent a marginal tightening of credit conditions, but should be viewed as another step in the exit process from extraordinary liquidity provision and not as a tightening of monetary policy, i.e. liquidity withdrawal, not a signal on rate hikes. Still, the effect on markets is likely to be risk-negative/USD positive as perceptions of tighter US monetary policy increase. The main area where the Fed may make some changes would be to extend the duration or increase the size of the asset purchase programs, but we also think this is unlikely. But if they did increase the scope of asset purchases, it would likely be taken as a risk-positive/USD negative, as it would be seen to be lending additional support to the housing market. Overall, we expect a very status-quo announcement that will retain the 'rates to remain low for an extended period' language on interest rates and generally note further improvement in the US economic recovery. After past meetings, reaffirming the commitment to low rates for an extended period has been a risk-positive/USD negative, and we expect that to be case tomorrow.
Trading Strategy: We would first note pre-holiday lethargy has already set in to markets, so if we get no surprises tomorrow, there may be only a negligible market reaction. Overall, we are looking for a relatively benign Fed, which should be good for risk sentiment and possibly dent some of the USD's recent strength. In a risk-positive outcome (stocks up/bond yields down) we would expect to see the JPY-crosses move higher, with the USD strengthening against the JPY, but coming under pressure against most others. In a risk-negative result (stocks down/yields up), we would look for the USD to weaken against JPY, but maintain recent strength against most other currencies, likely sending JPY-crosses lower. Lastly, we would note the key support zone in EUR/USD between 1.4450/4500 and the key resistance zone in USD/JPY between 90.20/70 as important levels to watch. "
Masquerade
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Tarhini_Trade
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stopped out of EUR/USD but I'll get back in for the breakout again. I should have seen the failure coming, as it only tested the 1.4585 level once before, and didnt make a higher low...rookie mistake, but glad Im not over leveraged and ok with the loss. lunch break
Masquerade
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Looks like I missed the usd/jpy trade - it's just ranging. Screw the markets though.
Skitch
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Been a great day! :]]
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blancspa
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yeah I guess scalping the range is the main strategy
Masquerade
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No change as expected. They seem fairly happy with the recovery. But this statement still cropping up:
"With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time."
So it's neither one or the other really. Just as well i'm flat.
"With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time."
So it's neither one or the other really. Just as well i'm flat.
Tarhini_Trade
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took a loss today but it was a wake up call. i have to remember that there will be these days of consolidation after a run in one direction. My recent strategy doesnt involve scalping so I either need to adjust or stay out during times like this...just thinking out loud here.
Pippy5000
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tenkan and kijun were the co-lead singers of this ultra-lame 80s hair metal band from Japan..
I got flat for an 11 pip loss after the umpteenth failure at 1.459 .. As of now I've got 25,5,46 and -11 trying to land the resurgence of the Euro.. I'm back in now 1.4505 and feeling pretty good about my chances in Asia.. Worst case scenario if my stop is hit at 1.442 is that I will have lost 15 pips total on 5 trades... best case scenario I'm going to make a giant heap of cash... 575 pips
Tarhini_Trade
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sounds good...i mean yeah, if youre right then you caught the pivot point perfectly, if not you dont have a bad risk/reward scenario here and Im sure youll try again
as for me, I'll be waiting for another chance to catch a USD/JPY breakout...possibly 90.00 with a t/p at 90.25-90-50 and a tight stop. in that case (dollar strength) ill short EUR/USD for the 1.45 break out. It all depends on how the rest of the world digests FOMC
as for me, I'll be waiting for another chance to catch a USD/JPY breakout...possibly 90.00 with a t/p at 90.25-90-50 and a tight stop. in that case (dollar strength) ill short EUR/USD for the 1.45 break out. It all depends on how the rest of the world digests FOMC
