new_trader
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Don't get your knickers in a twist BSD, I am not trying to raise another argument with you. I am just clarifying my position.
Everybody hurts...sometimes...
- Thread starter Black Swan
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new_trader
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DionysusToast
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Up the Ante - come out & see for yourself BSD. I will make the bet as fair and transparent as you like. You select the lawyer to draw up the terms and manage the escrow funds.
I don't particularly mind how it's done. If you don't believe me - just put your money where your mouth is. I am fairly sure I can match any stake you come up with.
Well - that's exactly the point, isn't it?
Once you figure out why the above proves my point and not yours - well, we may make a day trader of you yet.
B
Black Swan
So this thread has now degenerated into a pi55ing contest, well played guys, no really, nice one...
wtf would anyone waste their time wanting to prove themselves on an internet trading forum? btw why this obsession/over exaggeration of the live calls aspect to T2W proving *ability* to trade, it's like the T2W version of a duel..
wtf would anyone waste their time wanting to prove themselves on an internet trading forum? btw why this obsession/over exaggeration of the live calls aspect to T2W proving *ability* to trade, it's like the T2W version of a duel..
So this thread has now degenerated into a pi55ing contest, well played guys, no really, nice one...
wtf would anyone waste their time wanting to prove themselves on an internet trading forum? btw why this obsession/over exaggeration of the live calls aspect to T2W proving *ability* to trade, it's like the T2W version of a duel..
It's true what you say but, remember 4xtrader? It's a shame, nevertheless.
B
Black Swan
There are/has been so many multi nic trolls on T2W I lose track, but I think I recall him, a bit of a mess wasn't he? Was he the no stops guy who'd punt up to 80% of his account and told me he traded 93 pairs at the same time?
BSD
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Here's what happens when you sell 75 000 contracts in one of the most liquid markets around, you, umm, move the market:
"It was a stock market mystery that had everyone guessing for months: just what caused that harrowing flash crash last May?
On Friday, after months of investigation and speculation, federal authorities finally provided the answer: it all began with the click of a computer mouse in Kansas.
The mutual fund started a program at about 2:32 p.m. on May 6 to sell $4.1 billion of futures contracts, using a computer sell algorithm that over the next 20 minutes dumped 75,000 contracts onto the market, even automatically accelerating its selling as prices plunged.
The report set out the sequence of events that began with the sale by Waddell & Reed of 75,000 E-Mini Standard & Poor’s 500 futures contracts, using computer sell algorithms. Normally, a sale of this size would take place over as many as five hours, but the large sale was executed in 20 minutes, the regulators said."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/02/business/02flash.html?_r=2&scp=1&sq=flash+crash&st=nyt
That's why you cannot compound daytrading, you move the market.
It's just perfectly obvious.
Swan you get it it, as of course liquidity is the issue behind making it big...
I say Toast should get banned coz he posts seriously miseleadingcrap and even invented a buddy to support his ludicrous claim that you can compound daytrading with no problems when the above clearly proves that that is bull**** just like everything that Toast guy who just completed a daytrading course posts.
There are/has been so many multi nic trolls on T2W I lose track, but I think I recall him, a bit of a mess wasn't he? Was he the no stops guy who'd punt up to 80% of his account and told me he traded 93 pairs at the same time?
Anything you say, BS, anything you say-
BSD
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I honestly think that people like Socrates, Toast etc who post obvious totaly misleading BS like that TA doesn't work or the absoutely criminal and perfectly ludicrous claim towards newbies that you can get daytrading compounded into size should get banned.
This board should help newbies get their feet on the ground, and not lead them down a deep and treacherous slope towards losers destroying their capital with their inane "advice" !
This board should help newbies get their feet on the ground, and not lead them down a deep and treacherous slope towards losers destroying their capital with their inane "advice" !
timsk
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Hi BSD,
This is a slight red herring, but not one that I feel too guilty about as I've rather lost the thread of the thread with all the bickering! Here's an interesting alternative perspective on the the 'real' cause of the flash crash:
Revisiting 'Price Action' post #75, P10
Tim.
FX Bandit
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You've got a point actually. I can't even keep track of all my own nics, there's that many, let alone everyone else's.
DionysusToast
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Lol It's not a straw man argument - All I have seen BSD do is show examples of big time day traders who couldn't keep compounding due to liquidity and then I've seen you argue that he's talking sh1t - Show us some traders who have proven this wrong and viola you have backed up your case. Aren't you the one with the straw man argument in this case?
I don't know either way, I only assume that it can't be done - I'm happy to be proven wrong
Well - problem is that if we talk about people we know - BSD will claim they don't exist and then refuse to take part in a wager to let us prove they do.
The fund guys that I know are pulling in about $80k on a good day. Now - BSD will probably argue that this is not true and that anyway, $80k is peanuts compared to some billionaire in a trading book. On the other hand, people on planet earth will probably agree that $80K in a day is a fairly good day and not to be sniffed at.
What you have to remember is that when you go up in size, it is correct that you move the market with your trades and as such, if you can play the game, then you will be one of the people that is actually gaming other traders.
Here's a typical play:
The green hilly thing at the bottom is a cumulative delta - buys at market minus net sells at market. It is reset at roughly 9:30am. So - at 10:13 am we were net long roughly 30,000 contracts. Over the next 10 minutes or so, there was a decent amount of selling but the sellers were not getting anything for their efforts. Note that at this time, there were also buyers but there were a lot more sellers. After 10 minutes, we were not net long roughtly 18,000 contracts.
So - we had net selling of 12,000 contracts. What we are actually seeing here is a very large trader manipulating the market in the short term. He's doing 2 things - he's putting a lot of size on the offer whilst sucking up all the selling with iceberg orders on the bid. It is not unreasonable to presume that this single trader is now net long somewhere between 10,000-12,000 contracts at this point (or $120,500-$150,000 a tick), probably with an average price of 1196.25.
In terms of targets - these traders are looking for 4-6 ticks usually. They have enticed sellers into the market - people that faded the high. They brought all that those sellers sold. These sellers will get out if the market makes a new high of day, some will be a tick above the high with their stops - some will have more room. There will also be people who enter just above the high of day - the breakout players. At this point, the sellers are screwed. The breakout traders may/may not be OK - it just depends on how many people jump in on the new high.
The guy with the 10,000-12,000 contract long position is going to be closing his position against the stop loss orders of the people that went short and the entry orders of the people that will go long the breakout.
The end of the play is very simple. Size dissapears from the offer, size appears on the bid and there is a flurry of buys coming in which gets the ball rolling and entices buyers (or short covering). The move up is faster than the move down - as you can see we were back to being net long 30k delta in a couple of minutes.
So - let's say he averages 4 ticks on 10,000 contracts - we are looking at $480k before comissions (which will be minimal).
Of course, there is risk. The risk of being a big fish is that a bigger fish will come & eat you. In this case someone could have come and taken him on - throwing more & more sell orders until he caved in.
For little minnows like us - you can follow big fish like this once you recognise the plays - you just have to have the nerve to buy in the face of all that selling.
So - someone pulling in $480k in 10 minutes - this would be scaleable in my book.
ES is 2 million contracts a day. If anyone here ends up growing out of that, I will be astonished.
Of course, it could be that I am dangerous, don't know what I'm talking about and should be banned for what I write here.
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BSD
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Here's what happens when you sell 75 000 contracts in one of the most liquid markets around, you, umm, move the market:
"It was a stock market mystery that had everyone guessing for months: just what caused that harrowing flash crash last May?
On Friday, after months of investigation and speculation, federal authorities finally provided the answer: it all began with the click of a computer mouse in Kansas.
The mutual fund started a program at about 2:32 p.m. on May 6 to sell $4.1 billion of futures contracts, using a computer sell algorithm that over the next 20 minutes dumped 75,000 contracts onto the market, even automatically accelerating its selling as prices plunged.
The report set out the sequence of events that began with the sale by Waddell & Reed of 75,000 E-Mini Standard & Poor’s 500 futures contracts, using computer sell algorithms. Normally, a sale of this size would take place over as many as five hours, but the large sale was executed in 20 minutes, the regulators said."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/02/business/02flash.html?_r=2&scp=1&sq=flash+crash&st=nyt
That's why you cannot compound daytrading, you move the market.
It's just perfectly obvious.
Lol yes you should be banned for inventing buddies and posting nothing but drivel.
If your invented buddy existed and could compound his daytrading style he'd be the richest man on the planet, which he ain't, coz he don't exist.
Your not gonna gettit coz you get nothing else tho.
DionysusToast
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BSD - if you look in the picture above, you'll see net buying of 12,000 S&P contracts in 2 minutes.
As such - you should realise that 75,000 contracts in 20 minutes ain't gonna cause a crash. I reckon 75,000 thrown in in one order would cause a pretty good reaction - but 20 minutes for 75k ? Not at all likely.
You bring to mind an excerpt from the movie "Spinal Tap"...
Ring any bells, BSD?
BTW - out with my imaginary friend tonight.
As such - you should realise that 75,000 contracts in 20 minutes ain't gonna cause a crash. I reckon 75,000 thrown in in one order would cause a pretty good reaction - but 20 minutes for 75k ? Not at all likely.
You bring to mind an excerpt from the movie "Spinal Tap"...
Ring any bells, BSD?
BTW - out with my imaginary friend tonight.
DionysusToast
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Let me get this straight.
Someone that pulls in $80k on a good night cannot be real because if he was, he'd be the richest person on the planet ?
I'd say that $80k WAS scaled up.
The example a few posts above shows a trade pulling in over $400k - I presume this can't be real or that guy would be the richest person on the planet too. Is $400k not scaled up either?
I guess by your measure - all longer term traders would also be the richest guys on the plant too. In fact, I am the richest person on the planet and so is my wife.
Life sure must be fascinating on planet BSD
I don't usually resort to name calling but you sincerely are a total retard.
BSD
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This is so nuts in incredible...
If your friend existed and if one could COMPOUND daytrading...
which means keep increasing your contract size with your growing equity...
he would be the richest person on this planet in NO time...
Which clearly your imaginary buddy ain't unless you wanna tell us next that Bill Gates daytraded his way all the way up there lol.
The reason why you cannot compound your way to howling with the top dogs is coz you will eventually be moving the market lol.
"It was a stock market mystery that had everyone guessing for months: just what caused that harrowing flash crash last May?
On Friday, after months of investigation and speculation, federal authorities finally provided the answer: it all began with the click of a computer mouse in Kansas.
The mutual fund started a program at about 2:32 p.m. on May 6 to sell $4.1 billion of futures contracts, using a computer sell algorithm that over the next 20 minutes dumped 75,000 contracts onto the market, even automatically accelerating its selling as prices plunged.
The report set out the sequence of events that began with the sale by Waddell & Reed of 75,000 E-Mini Standard & Poor’s 500 futures contracts, using computer sell algorithms. Normally, a sale of this size would take place over as many as five hours, but the large sale was executed in 20 minutes, the regulators said."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/02/bu...h+crash&st=nyt
Unlike you the SEC doesn't invent crap out of the blue air like the average time big size orders take to be initiated.
Dan who turned 11k into 42 million in two years has the exact same message:
"Dan: I mostly use daily charts. You just can't buy 70000 shares off of a 5 minute chart. Most institutions don't use 5 minute charts, they are using 30 or 60 minute and certainly daily charts."
http://www.chartpattern.com/cf/image...world-2010.pdf
This fact resistance is really beyond imbecilic !
If your friend existed and if one could COMPOUND daytrading...
which means keep increasing your contract size with your growing equity...
he would be the richest person on this planet in NO time...
Which clearly your imaginary buddy ain't unless you wanna tell us next that Bill Gates daytraded his way all the way up there lol.
The reason why you cannot compound your way to howling with the top dogs is coz you will eventually be moving the market lol.
"It was a stock market mystery that had everyone guessing for months: just what caused that harrowing flash crash last May?
On Friday, after months of investigation and speculation, federal authorities finally provided the answer: it all began with the click of a computer mouse in Kansas.
The mutual fund started a program at about 2:32 p.m. on May 6 to sell $4.1 billion of futures contracts, using a computer sell algorithm that over the next 20 minutes dumped 75,000 contracts onto the market, even automatically accelerating its selling as prices plunged.
The report set out the sequence of events that began with the sale by Waddell & Reed of 75,000 E-Mini Standard & Poor’s 500 futures contracts, using computer sell algorithms. Normally, a sale of this size would take place over as many as five hours, but the large sale was executed in 20 minutes, the regulators said."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/02/bu...h+crash&st=nyt
Unlike you the SEC doesn't invent crap out of the blue air like the average time big size orders take to be initiated.
Dan who turned 11k into 42 million in two years has the exact same message:
"Dan: I mostly use daily charts. You just can't buy 70000 shares off of a 5 minute chart. Most institutions don't use 5 minute charts, they are using 30 or 60 minute and certainly daily charts."
http://www.chartpattern.com/cf/image...world-2010.pdf
This fact resistance is really beyond imbecilic !
B
Black Swan
DT & BSD, I like and respect both of you and your views and contributions on T2W are (IMHO) as valuable as you can get on 'ere, however, this petty feud doesn't do either of you justice or credit, you're both better than this. Let's just put it down to Xmas *tensions* and move on eh? There are merits in both of your positions, just bury it...
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