Is the whole thread gone or just your replies?
victorycountry
Junior member
- Messages
- 14
- Likes
- 0
Yes, Euro will definitely continue to appreciate at this stage.
Euro will surely recover this year not only because of inflation but also because of elections
arigoldman
Established member
- Messages
- 626
- Likes
- 10
It's a month of high uncertainty!
With all the risk residing to the downside in the $
victorycountry
Junior member
- Messages
- 14
- Likes
- 0
I have read from somewhere that new high or low tend to be created in January. If that's true, I am thinking it will happen around Inauguration.
I prefer not to do long term trading but this time looks like I will have to.
Also I will have to use TA.
I anticipate that dollar will gradually gain strength again close to inauguration.
I will take long positions in usdjpy, USDCAD and peso and short positions in GBP, euro and gold, ANZ.
Since I will have to take more risk I hope I gain more profit than I got when Feb reserve raised the interest rate last year
Last edited:
Next move for EUR/USD ? Easy !
Look at chart 1. We have three waves down since july 2008 - waves A-B-C.
Wave B is a correction and has a triangular form. Triangles in corrections
always preceed the final move. So wave C after triangle is a final wave down
in construction A-B-C since july 2008. Wave C will end and euro will rise.
Wave C is an impulse and is in its fifth wave - wave 5, which is a final
wave of any impulse wave. Wave 4 of wave C is a contracting triangle,
and we have already knew, that correction triangles preceed the final move.
Triangles have more properties, one of them is to attract future
price moves to its levels, and we can say in advance, that future euro
arise will try to reach the end of triangular wave 4 - it is usual
triangles property. So, a good looking BUY position can be established at
the end of wave 5 of wave C.
we can directly mark the target for wave 5. Usually price comes out of
corrective triangle very sharp and decisively, with thrust length equal
to the widest part of triangle. Take triangle width, add width to the
triangle end - wave 5 start, and we get price target 1.015 - 1.02 or
near it. So wave 5 will try to end in that space. Of course wave can
stop above this target, right in this zone or shortly break through.
All variants are valid, but usually happens, that happens usually.
Close look, parts of wave C - wave 1 and wave 3.
Close look, parts of wave C - wave 4.
is a good place to establish new LONG position(BUY EUR against USD)
with a price target 1.13 (the end of triangular wave 4).
Wave B is a correction and has a triangular form. Triangles in corrections
always preceed the final move. So wave C after triangle is a final wave down
in construction A-B-C since july 2008. Wave C will end and euro will rise.
When will wave C end ?
Let us look at the chart 2.
Wave C is an impulse and is in its fifth wave - wave 5, which is a final
wave of any impulse wave. Wave 4 of wave C is a contracting triangle,
and we have already knew, that correction triangles preceed the final move.
Triangles have more properties, one of them is to attract future
price moves to its levels, and we can say in advance, that future euro
arise will try to reach the end of triangular wave 4 - it is usual
triangles property. So, a good looking BUY position can be established at
the end of wave 5 of wave C.
When will wave 5 of wave C end ?
Wave 5 of wave C is unfolding right now. Having got triangle in wave 4,we can directly mark the target for wave 5. Usually price comes out of
corrective triangle very sharp and decisively, with thrust length equal
to the widest part of triangle. Take triangle width, add width to the
triangle end - wave 5 start, and we get price target 1.015 - 1.02 or
near it. So wave 5 will try to end in that space. Of course wave can
stop above this target, right in this zone or shortly break through.
All variants are valid, but usually happens, that happens usually.
Close look, parts of wave C - wave 1 and wave 3.
Close look, parts of wave C - wave 4.
What we should do now ?
Wait for wave 5 of wave C to completely unfold itself. Bottom of wave Cis a good place to establish new LONG position(BUY EUR against USD)
with a price target 1.13 (the end of triangular wave 4).
Look after our updates to find the end of wave C.
Euro reverse.
Probably, we have already seen wave C bottom. For this case we have remade our waves count. Here is our new view. The more euro stays in place without a drop - the more we confident in reverse.
Wave 4 of wave C down and wave 5 - run out of triangle. Yes, such an ending triangle.
Probable reverse point - end of wave C and first waves up.
Also some main values have already made a significant move into reverse side - CAD, US dollar index, GOLD and SILVER.
Last edited:
arigoldman
Established member
- Messages
- 626
- Likes
- 10
Out of the pair for now.
Today is 17 january 2017.
It is better to track all major values against US dollar, because their basic moves run in concordance, offering different points of view for the same object. It can help to understand future euro moves.
EUR/USD.
Wave C down has ended, first move up is running. Trend has changed. We mark first wave up as an initial triangle, if it would be so, then the last triangle's wave "e" is still ending. Waves count becomes invalid, when wave "c" - the middle of triangle, will become the shortest wave among a-c-e. Triangles, usually, have deep retracements, We could hope for a deep euro correction, if our waves count is right.
Strong BUY at a deep "a-b-c" looking drop. Price target - magic level.
Strong BUY at a deep "a-b-c" looking drop. Price target - magic level.
GBP/USD.
Pound is in wave 4, making either flat surface correction a-b-c, or triangle. Now wave "c" up is unfolding. BUY is preferred, price target is not clear. Anyway pound will rise and is already rising, helping us to track euro.
USD/CHF.
To better understand frank squiggles, we offer frank's long term and medium term articles at our site. USD/CHF has made initial triangle up, correction down is awaited, and, probably, has already started. We have labeled initial triangle in frank's move, as we have already done for euro, but frank's triangle is not perfect, due to price overshoots, it may be valid, but looks suspicious. We apply usual rule - wave "c" of triangle can't be the shortest. One we can say now - USD/CHF has made a serious move down, breaking upside trend. Maybe SELL US dollar against frank, price targets will be at the nearest fractals down - it is better to look at our site, we are updating all stuff now.
USD/JPY.
We awaited wave "c" down, but have seen flat correction a-b-c, move up should follow this correction, so we have decided to close our SELL position on Yen until clearance. Profit, however.
USD/CAD.
Wave 4, wave "c" of wave 4 makes its first steps. We wait for a clear a-b-c move up to SELL US dollar against CAD. Our current view - wave 1 down has ended, wave 2 up is unfolding, maybe wave 2 is an expanded flat correction with wave "c" on the run.
CONCLUSION: wait for correction on your chosen market - EUR, CAD, YEN, Frank, GOLD, SILVER to open long term position against US dollar. The most reliable commodities - CAD, EUR, GOLD, SILVER. Anyone can open position, having got just 15-20 $ in pocket, with microlots - 0.01 of usual bourse lot. You can track price unfolding and trend targets at our articles.
Last edited:
Waiting to BUY
Initial triangle as wave 1. Now wave 2 is running. Is wave 2 over ? Can we buy now ? NO.
Wave 2 has a-b-c form, we have just seen its first wave "a". Now "b" is running, and there will be "c" down. Wait for "c" to complete itself and BUY. By the way, here we see another initial triangle - expanding one.
You can get intraday forecasts at our page. Intraday forecasts for EUR, GBP, Frank GOLD have been updated, more will be added.
Correctional wave 2 after initial triangle on EUR/USD.
Wave 2 is a flat surface, as wave 2 on USD/CHF is. Also we can see flat corrections on USD/CAD and GBP/USD. Flat correction has the same a-b-c form, as any zigzag has, we are in wave "b", wave "c" down should start soon. End of wave "c" down will be the end of wave 2 - the place to BUY euro.
Note, wave "a" of this correction is an expanding initial triangle.
Wave 2 is a flat surface, as wave 2 on USD/CHF is. Also we can see flat corrections on USD/CAD and GBP/USD. Flat correction has the same a-b-c form, as any zigzag has, we are in wave "b", wave "c" down should start soon. End of wave "c" down will be the end of wave 2 - the place to BUY euro.
Note, wave "a" of this correction is an expanding initial triangle.
We have made common mistake - we have counted triangle too early, but triangles become obvious just in their last wave. Wave 1 on euro is still running.
The last wave "e" of initial triangle is an ending triangle. Triangle is ending, wave 2 down is awaited. The same move is on Frank and US dollar index, all in the same direction
There's no any good pull back on euro. Neither frank, nor US dollar index can't give us a good clue about wave 2 down. Maybe we have already seen it and now we look at the unfolding wave 3 up ? In this case - BUY then price goes over the current top.
British pound.
But let us look at the most clear picture - pound. GBP has made a huge unstoppable thrust up. But this joy won't last forever. Wave up is complete, wave down should start now. We see ending triangle in wave 5 of the wave 5. Usually price retraces the whole ending triangle very fast and sharply. Pound - reverse and fall.
We have decided to make deal against US dollar on the most reliable market - we have bought SILVER.
Time to buy.
Wave 2 on euro is ending. The whole wave was a flat surface a-b-c with an expanded ending triangle as wave "c". Also note, that wave 2 has reached its usual target - Fibonacci level 0.618 of wave 1 length and bottom of triangle's wave "d".
Time to buy. The same action against US dollar should be done for USD/CAD, USD/CHF and US dollar index. Hold your BUY all first wave up. Price target for euro - end of previous triangular wave 4.
British pound is in correction - wave 4, and is not suitable for a long term BUY or SELL.
Last edited:
6 february 2017. First move up and its correction.
We wait for decisive thrust up over the previous top. Also note, where wave 2 is ending - where previous wave "a" ends.
But USD/CAD offers more beautiful picture - big triangle in wave 4. Chart below.
Now wave 5 down is running, the last wave in current sequence, so we shall close our SELL's partially at the end of canadian wave 5. Partially, the main trend is down and down.
GBP/USD. We suppose currently running wave 4 will have a form of contracting triangle. Chart below.
