Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

So here is an update for the EUR_USD. It is playing out so far as I thought it would. On this daily chart I have Bolinger Bands that show it definitely could go up as I suspect it will to about the 1.4550 or 1.460 level. After that the odds favor a wave 3 down which will be very strong. The alternate count will be an X wave and then another corrective wave up before a very strong move down.

This is still playing out very nice from an Elliott Wave scenario.........I will not pretend to know everything here, but it does look like the Euro is going to go up to new highs. The beauty of Elliott Wave is that it does allow for unexpected moves, but there are still rules to follow. I have been using Elliott Wave Theory now more on the five minute charts, but I will still keep this thread going........

 

[JahDave]

Here is the day chart............from an Elliott Wave point then the Euro will go down for several months.......

 

[JahDave]

The "C" wave will be very strong according to Elliott Wave Theory. On a larger scale, then after this (probably 2 or 3 years) the euro and the U.S. stock market will go back up...........This is hard for me to imagine, but I have learned to believe in my method, because it has never been wrong yet........

 

[JahDave]

The long term scenario is that all western nations are declining and asian nations will be climbing...

 

[JahDave]

Here is my long term look at the USD_JPY. I have two Elliott Wave counts on the chart. The blue count is primary and the red count is the alternate count,,,,,,,, although at this point I will say it is a toss up between which count is more likely to happen. The bottom line is that if the low from April 1995 is broken then there will be some more downside and this formation is an ending diagonal. If this pair starts back up in five waves before it breaks the 79.78 level then this is a very deep wave two retracement, and the USD should start back up in a massive wave three.......I guess I am favoring this scenario because there are other clues pointing this way. Either way there is not a lot of downside before a strong move up........

 

[JahDave]

Here is a pretty long term view of the DJIA. I think that this move up is over or very close to over........I don't trade stock indexes, but when the Dow goes down then the USD gets stronger as a rule. That is why I track the Dow Jones Industrials. In the bigger picture when the USD gets stronger then commodities lose ground.......This why I track the Dow.......

 

[JahDave]

Here is a pretty long term view of the DJIA. I think that this move up is over or very close to over........I don't trade stock indexes, but when the Dow goes down then the USD gets stronger as a rule. That is why I track the Dow Jones Industrials. In the bigger picture when the USD gets stronger then commodities lose ground.......This why I track the Dow.......

The only way this can keep going according to Elliott Wave rules is if it extends into 9 waves up........If anyone looking at this previous chart doesn't know then this is a zig-zag.......(which is a corrective pattern)

 

[JahDave]

The only way this can keep going according to Elliott Wave rules is if it extends into 9 waves up........If anyone looking at this previous chart doesn't know then this is a zig-zag.......(which is a corrective pattern)

This was a good start today for what I suspected was getting ready to happen.......It is still too early to tell if this long term up is over or not, but I think the charts will confirm one way or the other in the next week or two.

 

[JahDave]

This was a good start today for what I suspected was getting ready to happen.......It is still too early to tell if this long term up is over or not, but I think the charts will confirm one way or the other in the next week or two.

The five minute chart can be counted down in five waves, but it can also be easily counted as being in a wave 4 currently. If this move down is in fact over then it should retrace back to at least the fibo 50% level and then start wave 3 which should be very strong down....... If the retracement makes a new high then we will be in an extended wave 5 that should make 9 or 13 waves up.

 

[brettus]

This was a good start today for what I suspected was getting ready to happen.......It is still too early to tell if this long term up is over or not, but I think the charts will confirm one way or the other in the next week or two.

I think you should take into account that the market has been very cyclical over the last 2 years with the majority of the falls occuring after quarterly earnings, usually end of January,April,July,October.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my latest daily Euro chart..........Ask me any questions you want to........

 

[JahDave]

Here is my latest daily Euro chart..........Ask me any questions you want to........

"d" may overshoot a bit.......

 

[JahDave]

I think you should take into account that the market has been very cyclical over the last 2 years with the majority of the falls occuring after quarterly earnings, usually end of January,April,July,October.

Cycles change Brettus.........I do watch cycles, but there are different cycles at work all the time............Cycles are on a fractal system just like the entire market..........They may go by different names,,,,,,,, but cycles are still fractals just like the entire market ,,,,,,,,,and larger cycles will trump smaller cycles most of the time........

 

[JahDave]

Here is a pretty long term view of the DJIA. I think that this move up is over or very close to over........I don't trade stock indexes, but when the Dow goes down then the USD gets stronger as a rule. That is why I track the Dow Jones Industrials. In the bigger picture when the USD gets stronger then commodities lose ground.......This why I track the Dow.......

The Dow is exhausted as it is showing on the hour chart.............It has completed or has almost completed the final move up before a medium term or long term reversal begins.........When the US stock market starts declining then the USD gains strength.........and also commodities go down.........The dow is in an ending diagonal that may have finished today, unless it extends into nine waves...........Even if it extends into nine waves then it still will not go up much..........

 

[JahDave]

Here is my latest daily Euro chart..........Ask me any questions you want to........

Right now I am expecting a retracement back up to 1.3675 or 1.3700 level and then a breakdown to the 1.3250 level. I sold last week and closed my positions today expecting a gap up on Sunday night because of Mubarack stepping down and everyone feeling good. My charts say that wave one down is probably over and wave two up is coming next week. I will definitely be selling at 1.3675........... My thread is for educated traders........If you don't know what I posted, then I will be glad to explain it to you or direct you to some good resources............

 

[JahDave]

Right now I am expecting a retracement back up to 1.3675 or 1.3700 level and then a breakdown to the 1.3250 level. I sold last week and closed my positions today expecting a gap up on Sunday night because of Mubarack stepping down and everyone feeling good. My charts say that wave one down is probably over and wave two up is coming next week. I will definitely be selling at 1.3675........... My thread is for educated traders........If you don't know what I posted, then I will be glad to explain it to you or direct you to some good resources............

The Aussie has not even made a low yet for wave 5, but it should soon...........Then there will be a wave two back up.........I made the most pips last on the Aussie down, But I cashed out today at 3:30 Eastern time........I will sell after a large bounce.........

 

[Ian Copsey]

The Dow is exhausted as it is showing on the hour chart.............It has completed or has almost completed the final move up before a medium term or long term reversal begins.........When the US stock market starts declining then the USD gains strength.........and also commodities go down.........The dow is in an ending diagonal that may have finished today, unless it extends into nine waves...........Even if it extends into nine waves then it still will not go up much..........

It's due a pullback... but a pullback only. I'm a long term bull though this year probably won't look much like after April. The decline from 14K as far as I can see was a triple three and had corrective wave ratios - not impulsive ratios.

This week should see a top around 12,327-330 for a 450-500 point drop approx. However, the next larger target is 12,660 and that's where we'll see the bigger drop - a full 20% price drop. Chart:

We're just coming to the top of Wave -iii- of Wave (c) of Wave (iii)... The Wave (iii) target is at 12,660... so a 50% pullback in Wave (iv) is probable...

 

[Ian Copsey]

Right now I am expecting a retracement back up to 1.3675 or 1.3700 level and then a breakdown to the 1.3250 level. I sold last week and closed my positions today expecting a gap up on Sunday night because of Mubarack stepping down and everyone feeling good. My charts say that wave one down is probably over and wave two up is coming next week. I will definitely be selling at 1.3675........... My thread is for educated traders........If you don't know what I posted, then I will be glad to explain it to you or direct you to some good resources............

We haven't yet seen a decent pullback which should come in a Wave (iv) soon but then target the 94.4% projection in Wave (c) lower around the 1.3410 area where there is a big daily pivot support...

 

[JahDave]

Here is a look at the EUR_USD weekly chart. Look at the candles in the blue box. This pair could have an up week, but it looks very bad for the Euro. Two spinning tops with a doji in the middle. Now that's some serious indecision from market participants.

 

[JahDave]

I was looking for the 1.3675 - 1.3700 area as a top. The Euro just made the 1.3683 so I just went short for probably long term. Also, I had said several weeks ago that i thought the dow jones move up was over or almost over. I have had a target price based on fibonacci levels of 12,361. The dow just made 12,373 at the same time the Euro made it's high. Good Trading Everyone, things are about to get volatile.