Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[brettus]

I am convinced that social mood and not fundamentals drive the markets. The reason I say this is because I have seen the exact same type of announcements interpreted opposite ways by the masses. This is what I need to work on because it is not that difficult to watch the financial shows and know whether the bulk of Americans are feeling positive or negative about the markets. Anyway, I don't think we need a large event to send the markets on a down trend, the social mood just has to shift to negative. When people start to realize how bad things really are across the board in the U.S., then I think this will be enough to shift market sentiment. The market sentiment always gets too exuberant during uptrends and too pessimistic during downtrends, so be prepared when it changes to down......... It will go farther than it should.

Yea. Things are bad there in the service industry according to a few friends so I think it's not worth risking holding onto my shares.

 

[JahDave]

It looks like the Aussie is in an ending diagonal. I'm not sure how far down this will go, but I think that the parity level will be rejected this time and that equals a good trading opportunity.

 

[JahDave]

The Euro modified stochastic is overbought on the 5 minute charts, so this is presenting a nice short trade opportunity at the moment and there is a mature wave count in place. Now this doesn't mean that this move can't extend farther up, but it's not that likely.

 

[JahDave]

One more point I would like to add here is that I have been reading a lot of things on line in the last week about currency wars and the demise of the US dollar. My experience trading has been that when everyone is talking about the demise of any currency then that is the time to start looking for a rebound. So the dollar should start a large rally soon.

 

[JahDave]

And another thing..........The dollar yen plunge is almost over as well........Get ready for a big run to the upside here as well........I think the bottom is less than 100 pips away.

 

[JahDave]

The Euro modified stochastic is overbought on the 5 minute charts, so this is presenting a nice short trade opportunity at the moment and there is a mature wave count in place. Now this doesn't mean that this move can't extend farther up, but it's not that likely.

It looks like the usd major pairs are finally making the turn down. If the markets follow through then most of today's down move should be retraced and the there should be a strong move down. If this happens then it will be good evidence that the trend has changed and we should see USD strength for at least 6 months.

 

[JahDave]

It looks like the usd major pairs are finally making the turn down. If the markets follow through then most of today's down move should be retraced and the there should be a strong move down. If this happens then it will be good evidence that the trend has changed and we should see USD strength for at least 6 months.

It doesn't look very much like a good five wave move down. Even though it is strong right now I think that there may be one more push up,,,,,,,,,that will probably happen when the U.S. stock market opens tomorrow. Look at this long term DJIA chart. Unless it goes up to new highs over 14200 then it appears that it is making a long term head and shoulders pattern. I think that this will be a bear market that is going to be a once in a lifetime event for us. This should equal dollar strength for a long time. But there will be a lot of whipsaws in the markets, just like in the Great Depression. Also the dollar index has not reached the 75.60 level yet. It doesn't have to reach it, but I think it probably will.

 

[JahDave]

The only major pair I see right now that might be in an impulse wave up is the USD_CHF. Here is the 1 hour chart. Wave 1 can be interpreted as a leading diagonal.

 

[JahDave]

The only major pair I see right now that might be in an impulse wave up is the USD_CHF. Here is the 1 hour chart. Wave 1 can be interpreted as a leading diagonal.

Actually the USD_JPY is a toss up as well. It has made a very nice double bottom, and it should go up some from where it is currently, but there are not enough candles yet to tell if this is impulsive up yet.

 

[JahDave]

Actually the USD_JPY is a toss up as well. It has made a very nice double bottom, and it should go up some from where it is currently, but there are not enough candles yet to tell if this is impulsive up yet.

Here is my really long term JPY chart. I got the basic chart from the St. Louis fed if you would like to get one not marked up.

 

[JahDave]

It looks like the Aussie is in an ending diagonal. I'm not sure how far down this will go, but I think that the parity level will be rejected this time and that equals a good trading opportunity.

On a small time frame it looks like the Aussie may be in a wave one down. The next 2 days should reveal if this is so or not. Anyway, here is the Aussie daily chart and you will see the ending diagonal I spoke about the other day, and that my modified stochastic and fractal indicator reached the 90+ level and is now showing a sell signal on my daily chart.

Good Trading Everyone,
Jah Dave

 

[JahDave]

NZD_USD update

NZD_USD update. As more time goes by then the chart patterns are clearing up a bit and possibilities are narrowing. Right now my preffered count is as my chart indicates and the NZD is just starting a C wave down. This means it should bottom out around the first part of next year around the .6600 area.

 

[JahDave]

EUR/USD update

Here is an interesting sidenote on the Euro compared to the NZD. The Euro has clearly completed a five wave down pattern against the USD, so this means that there will be two more of these after some corrections in between. In contrast the NZD_USD is starting a C wave down and after this is complete it should be making new highs. Anyway, what I am saying here is that I believe the chart patterns more than what current logic tells me what will happen because chart patterns are more accurate than my logic.

 

[JahDave]

USD_JPY Update

Check out the triangle on the USD_JPY. Elliott Wave Theory says that a triangle is always the next to last formation in a trend, so this is encouraging for an end to the dollar's slide against the yen. This is only on the hourly chart and if you have read my thread at all then you know I am in long already with some small stops. I will take some small losses to make the big gains.

 

[JahDave]

Re: NZD_USD update

NZD_USD update. As more time goes by then the chart patterns are clearing up a bit and possibilities are narrowing. Right now my preffered count is as my chart indicates and the NZD is just starting a C wave down. This means it should bottom out around the first part of next year around the .6600 area.

Here is a shorter time frame NZD chart. The Kiwi looks to be in a triangle and this means it should go 5 or 9 waves before breaking out to the down side. I am in this trade short for probably the next 2 or 3 weeks.

 

[JahDave]

Re: USD_JPY Update

Check out the triangle on the USD_JPY. Elliott Wave Theory says that a triangle is always the next to last formation in a trend, so this is encouraging for an end to the dollar's slide against the yen. This is only on the hourly chart and if you have read my thread at all then you know I am in long already with some small stops. I will take some small losses to make the big gains.

I just cashed out my JPY trade at .8155 and will look to get back in it long at the .8070 which is the fibo 76.4 retracement from where it is now

 

[JahDave]

Re: NZD_USD update

Here is a shorter time frame NZD chart. The Kiwi looks to be in a triangle and this means it should go 5 or 9 waves before breaking out to the down side. I am in this trade short for probably the next 2 or 3 weeks.

I know I just said yesterday that I would probably sit on this one a while, I couldn't resist taking the profits so I cashed this position out a little while ago. I also set up an if done buy order that will make 90 pips if all goes according to my setup. You will see the entry, the stop and the take profit on this chart I am posting. If this all works out then I will sell it again at the .7545.

 

[JahDave]

Re: USD_JPY Update

I just cashed out my JPY trade at .8155 and will look to get back in it long at the .8070 which is the fibo 76.4 retracement from where it is now

The dollar yen went a little higher than when I posted last night so the new Fibo target to buy at is the .8080.

 

[JahDave]

Re: NZD_USD update

I know I just said yesterday that I would probably sit on this one a while, I couldn't resist taking the profits so I cashed this position out a little while ago. I also set up an if done buy order that will make 90 pips if all goes according to my setup. You will see the entry, the stop and the take profit on this chart I am posting. If this all works out then I will sell it again at the .7545.

My order triggered and it's live now, so we will see if the triangle finishes out like I think it will.

 

[JahDave]

Re: NZD_USD update

My order triggered and it's live now, so we will see if the triangle finishes out like I think it will.

Here is the NZD_USD update. The triangle did not hold up and the NZD has gone up from there. The technical indicators on several levels say that the NZD is overbought and due for a correction. That is my general opinion as well. I see more USD strength pretty much across the board. The interesting part about this all is that the Aussie has not even been close to the parity level even as the Kiwi has made new highs. That tells me that the USD has earned a 2 or 3 year reprieve, but not much more than that.