Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

Re: NZD_USD update

Here is the NZD_USD update. The triangle did not hold up and the NZD has gone up from there. The technical indicators on several levels say that the NZD is overbought and due for a correction. That is my general opinion as well. I see more USD strength pretty much across the board. The interesting part about this all is that the Aussie has not even been close to the parity level even as the Kiwi has made new highs. That tells me that the USD has earned a 2 or 3 year reprieve, but not much more than that.

There was the Aussie run at 1.0001. It was a phenonimal "C" wave, but it failed, so there ya go........There should be plenty of downside from here.....

 

[JahDave]

Re: NZD_USD update

There was the Aussie run at 1.0001. It was a phenonimal "C" wave, but it failed, so there ya go........There should be plenty of downside from here.....

It extended for a triple three and Elliott Wave Theory says that that is all it could do.

 

[JahDave]

This is a very good time to sell.

 

[JahDave]

It is also a good time to sell the EUR_USD..........

 

[JahDave]

It is also a good time to sell the EUR_USD..........

People buying the Euro right now are suckers...........LOL..... there may be a little upside, but the Eurozone is going to get hammered harder than any other region in the world...............

 

[JahDave]

I feel sorry for Germany because they are working so hard and they think they are making a difference............ Noone in the free world is really making a difference right now............China is making slave labor faster than we can make a difference with paid labor

 

[JahDave]

Everything is written in the charts.............Learn it and believe it...........I am going to post my really long term charts one more time ... I am only saying this because many people here believe that I have no idea what I am doing or where the major forex pairs are going. Just read the charts, because they are never wrong. If you make a wrong trade then it is because you have interpreted the charts wrong because of your own bias.........

 

[Ian Copsey]

I'd like to introduce Harmonic Elliott Wave. It is a small adaptation to Elliott's impulsive structure that provides more accuracy in forecasting. Basically, the big difference is that Waves 1, 3 & 5 do not develop in 5-waves but in 3-waves. From what I have seen extended waves do not exist and are a factor of the fact the 3-wave issue. More information is available on www.harmonic-ewave.com.

Just as an example of how this all works I posted the analysis below earlier on FXCM DailyFX forums:

MONTHLY

Note here the swing lows from the 0.8225 low have not yet been broken - specifically the 1.1640 low. The decline from 1.6036 has come in a double zigzag. The relationships between each (a)(b)(c) are not the best but do have legs. I have counted the 1.6036 high as a Wave (III) being a 323.6% projection of Wave (I) and Wave (C) a 109% projection. (These are all Fibonacci ratios added to 100%, 200%, 300% etc.) Another weakness of the count is that 1.1879 low was a 66.7% retracement in Wave (IV). While that is seen from time to time, by biggest concern is that it is very, very close to the Wave (B) of Wave (III) which is not normally seen. Coupled with the fact that we have only seen a double zigzag - and could therefore turn into a triple three the risk is obvious...

WEEKLY

This merely highlights the double zigzag and a few ratios.


DAILY

The daily chart shows the expectation that the rally to 1.3333 was a Wave (i), retracement to 1.2586 (being just over 50% retracement) and rally in Wave (a). I have shown the ratios (which do have some small variances) which are normal for an impulsive wave. This ended just below an 85.4% projection in Wave -v-.

The pullback to 1.3696 came in 3 waves and therefore risked a complex correction. From there it did for a long while resemble a triangle. However, in the pullback last Friday it broke the bullish structure that would have been required to push this higher in Wave (c). Thus, this implied an expanded flat with prospect for a retest of 1.3696 and then we should be aware of the retracements in Wave (B) which were 1.3633 (33.3%) and 1.3557 (38.2%.)


HOURLY

Here is the move down from 1.4281. The basic expectation was a 5-wave decline that should reach 1.3696 at least. The ratios are all normal ones I see. An interesting point was that the Wave -a- of Wave -v- was at the 66.7% projection in Wave -v-. I had thought (without analyzing) that this may have finished the move. However, momentum broke down and it was then obvious that we still had further to go. A 76.4% projection in Wave -v- was at 1.3622 and this leaves the 85.4% projection at 1.3581. We should also consider the 85.4% projection in Wave -c- that is at 1.3562 - so 5 pips above the 38.2% retracement in Wave (B).

So as long as momentum begins to pick up - mainly the hourly this is a valid target and should be watched.

What can go wrong? Well, if this breaks below 1.3550 it's going to be quite weak. It's possible to switch the Wave (a) to the 1.4281 high although the projection in Wave (v) there is not so neat. A 50% correction is around 1.3434.

Much below there would begin to threaten the entire rally and may imply that we're going to see a triple three appear in the monthly charts...

I hope all this makes sense... It is how Harmonic Elliott Wave works.
Good luck
Ian
Edit/Delete Message

 

[JahDave]

Interesting stuff Ian. Here is my take on the Euro currently from a more traditional EW viewpoint. Although, to address your double three instead of impulse waves is true to a degree. There are times when the market is truly impulsive, but I haven't seen it since I have been trading. Anyway, Here is my most current Euro chart. I would say that the Euro will probably hit the 50 or 61.8 fibo level.

 

[Ian Copsey]

Hi Dave
It's quite possible actually as I've been following a possible triple three move lower which has stalled 12 pips above the 50% retracement of the move up from 1.2586. That would still keep the count I placed in my chart but have the Wave (a) at 1.4281 and this being Wave (b). Until 1.3600 breaks there is a chance we could see further lows with the 58.6% retracement at 1.3288 and the prior high at 1.3333 also potentially acting as pivot support... The bullish divergences are in place already though... I can't see this as impulsive as yet as all corrections have been shallow which on an alternation basis tends to reduce the odds... So we'll have to see how strongly the rally develops...

 

[JahDave]

Hi Dave
It's quite possible actually as I've been following a possible triple three move lower which has stalled 12 pips above the 50% retracement of the move up from 1.2586. That would still keep the count I placed in my chart but have the Wave (a) at 1.4281 and this being Wave (b). Until 1.3600 breaks there is a chance we could see further lows with the 58.6% retracement at 1.3288 and the prior high at 1.3333 also potentially acting as pivot support... The bullish divergences are in place already though... I can't see this as impulsive as yet as all corrections have been shallow which on an alternation basis tends to reduce the odds... So we'll have to see how strongly the rally develops...

Hi Ian,

If my count is correct then the move down made a triple three which is the maximum it could make. I suspect this correction will gain some momentum to the upside, but it could stall out at the 38.2 which is around the 1.3760 area. I think that is the minimum level for this retracement, but as you know, there is a possibility it may stall out at the 1.3650 area (the 23.6).

Good Trading,
Dave

 

[JahDave]

The EUR_USD still looks corrective up, and it did break the 23.6 level I talked about last night, so I am thinking it will still make one of the big three fibonacci levels. For anyone who doesn't know this, the big three fibo levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement of the previous move in either direction. That is 1.3760,= 38.6 retracement; 1.3860, =50% retracement; 1.3960, =61.8% retracement. I do think this is very unusual because every level finishes up at the .0060 level. I have never seen this before. Anyway, here is my Euro hourly chart today.

 

[Ian Copsey]

You called the low well.. I didn't get it as I was still seeing USDCHF needing another push higher and maybe Cable lower... In the end all look possible:

My preference is for the downside here to be complete.

There are two counts as there are decent ratios even for an impulsive Wave (a) lower. However, the Wave (ii) and Wave (iv) are both brief and shallow. I tend not to see this in a Harmonic Elliott Wave structure unless the Wave (b) of Wave (iii) is very deep. In this case it was a "normal" 50%. Therefore I feel the triple three count has more legs. It also met the 50% retracement of the 1.2586-1.4281 rally which is a "normal" Wave (B) of Wave (III)... Note also the first rally from 1.3447 has risen into the span of the third Wave (b).

The recovery from 1.3447:

These ratios were just about perfect. Note the bearish divergence at the end that tends to confirm the reversal lower - which ideally should only be a correction in my book. Also notice the first pullback has dipped into the span of the Wave (b) of Wave (v)...

Table for the rally from my spreadsheet:

Note all ratios are the normal type I see and in this case the alternation between Wave (ii) (81%) and Wave (iv) (38.2%) are also in support.

I'm looking for a Wave (b) pullback and then Wave (c) rally probably by the end of next week (??) which will form Wave (i) of Wave (C) of Wave (III).

Clear break below 1.3447 and the 58.6% retracement in Wave (B) at 1.3288 will break the uptrend completely...

 

[JahDave]

My first guess at where this is going is drawn ahead on my chart I am posting. This looks like it is forming up a zig-zag for a larger wave B that may be targeting the 50% level I have drawn up to.

 

[Ian Copsey]

I agree, good chance of an expanded flat. The key for me is that I feel USDCHF needs to get to 1.03...

 

[JahDave]

Just my opinion because everyone sees charts different, but I am watching for a triangle for a wave 4 and this pair is in a channel for now. With that being said I have the 1.0300 area as the 38% retracement form the larger move down and the 1.0600 area as the 50% retracement. BTW, I like your spreadsheet. It is very good.

 

[JahDave]

My first guess at where this is going is drawn ahead on my chart I am posting. This looks like it is forming up a zig-zag for a larger wave B that may be targeting the 50% level I have drawn up to.

Now that there are more candles to look at, this looks much more like a flat correction. And as some confirmation of that, just look at the modified stochastic below the chart. it is about to give a buy signal because the euro is oversold on the 1 hour chart.

 

[JahDave]

The EUR_GBP has taken a big hit and looks oversold on a technical level and looks like it is finishing up a B wave. This is adding some confirmation that the Euro is going on a small rally soon.

 

[JahDave]

Here is the EUR__USD day chart. It is drawn out like I think things will go for the next several months or so. The red lines represent fibo levels and it is labeled on several different Elliott Wave scales.

 

[JahDave]

Here is the EUR__USD day chart. It is drawn out like I think things will go for the next several months or so. The red lines represent fibo levels and it is labeled on several different Elliott Wave scales.

So here is an update for the EUR_USD. It is playing out so far as I thought it would. On this daily chart I have Bolinger Bands that show it definitely could go up as I suspect it will to about the 1.4550 or 1.460 level. After that the odds favor a wave 3 down which will be very strong. The alternate count will be an X wave and then another corrective wave up before a very strong move down.