Eliminating choppy signals

[jd1888]

Useful contribution Pi, perhaps in our mental process we first think an ever more complex solution / indicator is required, and by doing so we make things overly comlicated hence we jump to an easy conclusion as some sort of way out ... The indicator is what it is and doing it's job, conclusions are often our own interpretation and filled with our judgment as you say.

But getting back to the initial topic of the thread, how do you precisely evade the false signals in choppy markets and what indicators do you use for that? And how did your realisation of the true nature of indicators impact your trading? The realisation that eg the EMA200 is just an average over the past 200 bars, doesn't really give you a clear advice/signal but may rather lead to dropping it all together (which us back into the Brambles argument... ;-)

thanks for sharing your thoughts

You will never ever ever ever be able to do this 100% of the time that's what I was trying to get at with my earlier post. If you are going to use an indicator you'll need to find one that will work most of the time the way you want it to (maybe not quite the right words for what I mean). B

But what you have to remember is an indicator will only be telling you what the price is already doing, so they need price action to be doing the exact same thing to be able to produce the same outcome from the indicator any slight change in price action will produce a different outcome from the indicator.

 

[Valentino104]

Have a look at this thread, interesting lecture from codebreaker on another forum also looking to exclude NOISE.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=68181&page=3

Will have a further read and report

 

[Jason101]

Discussion is developping nicely, but the insight hasnt come to me yet...

So we’re lost and doomed and no hope is left for us stock market perverts… What are we doing here except for intellectual exercising ;-) Somebody making money??`

 

[fcta]

FCTA did post a link showing pretty impressive results (hitrate >80%, profit factor > 3), if it's an EA I would love to know the trading rules it's based on...but probably these are highly secretive and burried deep in the Saint Peter catacombs...

It is not secretive, if it is I will not be posting it. The knowledge is there in the Bible, I built everything from the scratch. You start by sketchy down what you want to do based on what is written in the Bible. Model building and constructs.

Stage one:
http://www.marketchaos.co.za/framework.jpg

Stage two, you look for method - graph/chart to help you know when market participants arebreaching your conditions in stage one

You must follow the condition in stage one.

You can read half of module 1 here.
http://www.slideshare.net/doherein/believers-trading-academy

The % drawdown shown is the largest loss of equity at some point - a peak to trough decline. For example if at some point the account equity was $100,000 then FROM THAT POINT a 50% drawdown means losses took the account equity to $50,000. In other words you would have lost 1/2 of what you had.
Accordingly, the higher the draw down figure in the statistics, the more likely the account is to go bust at some point.

Peter

We are saying the same point. This is why you must seek all solutions to control draw downs - That draw down was incurred in the second month around August 2010, which means the available equity grew higher than 100,000, it could not have been 1/2 of what is available. A draw down is actually a closed trade in a loss; but if you take the trading over a span of a year there was no loss.

There was no reason for me to have closed down those trades since they all recovered. There was a learning curve. You can either avoid those silly draw downs or ignore them as follows:

1) Avoidig markets or instruments that will cause you serious draw downs.
2) Have efficient means of spreading risk - based on my proper application of chaos and fractal theory - I am using a type of risk management recommended by king Solomon - you will find this in Eccl. 11:1-2. That is one of the greatest fractal statement ever and verstile for risk management of all sort depend on what you are applying it to. You find my explanation here:

http://www.slideshare.net/doherein/king-solomon-cast-thy-bread-upon-the-waters

This becomes a subset model inside the main model. I believe sometimes Elliot Wave theorists are talking about nested fractals. Eccl 11:1-2 is a nested fractal statment.

My original plan was to be having 980 pips per week. This is possible in a stable economy. Just study 7 markets when they hit the bottom and click and go. I am just having 980 pips per month, 3 times lower than what the strategy can do if markets are not in recession. Also, I decided to change my mind so that one is not driven by greed of making 980 pips per week when markets are in great fear. There is nothing you can down when there are whipsaws or fears in the markets, you avoid them or you hold your trades without increasing risk more than 1/7th of your equity.

Lastly, you do not need economics or truck load of indicators to interpret market charts. You need ideologies/doctrines. I am a Geographer who happened to abandon Satanic/worldly doctrines to that of Christ. It works let them call me names, what is important is that it works! You need to know how to interpret chart in my own way.

http://www.slideshare.net/doherein/believers-trading-academy

Year to-date:
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/daniel-feeds.htm

See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/january.htm

Few days into Libya Crisis:
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/february1.htm

Final February results
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/february.htm

March result
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/march.htm

I know when a market will crash and bumble or spike high and tumble. But I do not go and start telling people this that market is going to crash, I keep quiet because if I do they call me names and bad prophet. There is no magic in it, you see it vividly from your chart that a market is going to crash.

There are other times you cannot help and you got caught up in some bad markets like nzdlfx, I opened in 2010.11.22 and I believe that was when the first Equake hit that country, and again recently, so it keep tumbling down. But the economy will recover some day in the next 4 years, so the current problem is not sufficient to start withdrawing your investment out of that country.

Another example is Euro/USd I opened on 2010.11.09 08: I only closed it down today after 4 months in profit of 1400. These are the longest running bad markets so far that I have experienced. All other markets tends to go up and not down. thinking of market going down at the middle of a 7 year cycle is foolish and Satan's plan.

Whether you are trading futures, spot, property, energy, pork, gold and silver, all markets have good future outlooks. you must know the right time to invest and what you are fighting against. - draw downs. You do not need indicators but doctrines on what you want to obey - simple mind game and mind control.

I hope this helps you V. you can control whipsaws and choppy signals. You can see them in the markets and you can avoid them.

 

[Valentino104]

he's back...and so is the bible ;-)

 

[wackypete2]

unbelievable...
He doesn't even understand what he is talking about. What he says about drawdowns is total BS.

Peter

 

[Valentino104]

It is not secretive, if it is I will not be posting it. The knowledge is there in the Bible, I built everything from the scratch. You start by sketchy down what you want to do based on what is written in the Bible. Model building and constructs.

Stage one:
http://www.marketchaos.co.za/framework.jpg

Stage two, you look for method - graph/chart to help you know when market participants arebreaching your conditions in stage one

You must follow the condition in stage one.

You can read half of module 1 here.
http://www.slideshare.net/doherein/believers-trading-academy




We are saying the same point. This is why you must seek all solutions to control draw downs - That draw down was incurred in the second month around August 2010, which means the available equity grew higher than 100,000, it could not have been 1/2 of what is available. A draw down is actually a closed trade in a loss; but if you take the trading over a span of a year there was no loss.

There was no reason for me to have closed down those trades since they all recovered. There was a learning curve. You can either avoid those silly draw downs or ignore them as follows:

1) Avoidig markets or instruments that will cause you serious draw downs.
2) Have efficient means of spreading risk - based on my proper application of chaos and fractal theory - I am using a type of risk management recommended by king Solomon - you will find this in Eccl. 11:1-2. That is one of the greatest fractal statement ever and verstile for risk management of all sort depend on what you are applying it to. You find my explanation here:

http://www.slideshare.net/doherein/king-solomon-cast-thy-bread-upon-the-waters

This becomes a subset model inside the main model. I believe sometimes Elliot Wave theorists are talking about nested fractals. Eccl 11:1-2 is a nested fractal statment.

My original plan was to be having 980 pips per week. This is possible in a stable economy. Just study 7 markets when they hit the bottom and click and go. I am just having 980 pips per month, 3 times lower than what the strategy can do if markets are not in recession. Also, I decided to change my mind so that one is not driven by greed of making 980 pips per week when markets are in great fear. There is nothing you can down when there are whipsaws or fears in the markets, you avoid them or you hold your trades without increasing risk more than 1/7th of your equity.

Lastly, you do not need economics or truck load of indicators to interpret market charts. You need ideologies/doctrines. I am a Geographer who happened to abandon Satanic/worldly doctrines to that of Christ. It works let them call me names, what is important is that it works! You need to know how to interpret chart in my own way.

http://www.slideshare.net/doherein/believers-trading-academy

Year to-date:
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/daniel-feeds.htm

See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/january.htm

Few days into Libya Crisis:
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/february1.htm

Final February results
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/february.htm

March result
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/march.htm

I know when a market will crash and bumble or spike high and tumble. But I do not go and start telling people this that market is going to crash, I keep quiet because if I do they call me names and bad prophet. There is no magic in it, you see it vividly from your chart that a market is going to crash.

There are other times you cannot help and you got caught up in some bad markets like nzdlfx, I opened in 2010.11.22 and I believe that was when the first Equake hit that country, and again recently, so it keep tumbling down. But the economy will recover some day in the next 4 years, so the current problem is not sufficient to start withdrawing your investment out of that country.

Another example is Euro/USd I opened on 2010.11.09 08: I only closed it down today after 4 months in profit of 1400. These are the longest running bad markets so far that I have experienced. All other markets tends to go up and not down. thinking of market going down at the middle of a 7 year cycle is foolish and Satan's plan.

Whether you are trading futures, spot, property, energy, pork, gold and silver, all markets have good future outlooks. you must know the right time to invest and what you are fighting against. - draw downs. You do not need indicators but doctrines on what you want to obey - simple mind game and mind control.

I hope this helps you V. you can control whipsaws and choppy signals. You can see them in the markets and you can avoid them.

FCTA,

I just had a brilliant idea...will work on it once I can fully grasp it...a trading system based on the principles of the Kuran!!

Do you think it would work?

 

[wackypete2]

Are we on candid camera or something?

Peter

 

[Valentino104]

Time to close down the thread, it's use has been reduced by the predetermined input of some thereby deviating much from the original subject.

As it's my first, I thank all contributors for their inputs and hope to meet you shortly on one of the other threads.

regards

 

[wackypete2]

Hope to see you around. There really is a lot to learn here but as Bramble said, it's sometimes hidden in between somewhere!

Peter

 

[Jason101]

Wackypete2, I think after this thread you should consider changing your name. "Wacky" on T2W has just been surpassed.

 

[fcta]

unbelievable...
He doesn't even understand what he is talking about. What he says about drawdowns is total BS.

Peter

They have told me that since the last 4 years, but they cannot tell me why it is BS or what is wrong with what I said. Here is the framework again.
http://www.marketchaos.co.za/framework.jpg

Take time to study it your trading will turn around, if you are really a TA man.
I don't even worry about news, etc. Meditate about the framework when you are alone. And you can contact me in secret if you cannot ask question bodly here.

The results are obvious. At the end of the day it is profits that matters and not your wrong views.

 

[Jason101]

Discussion is developping nicely, but the insight hasnt come to me yet...

I Had to repeat that.


OP, imho post No.7 is about as good as it gets on trend.

I have multiple ma’s as default on my screens.
Not to trade with but as a quick visual as I scan through charts at speed looking for trends. Then I pretty much ignore the ma’s.

Ps I assume you know about higher highs, higher lows (within multiple time frames, if you like) and all that.

Ps Thanks for the laughs, this thread has cracked me up.

Jason

 

[jd1888]

It is not secretive, if it is I will not be posting it. The knowledge is there in the Bible, I built everything from the scratch. You start by sketchy down what you want to do based on what is written in the Bible. Model building and constructs.

Stage one:
http://www.marketchaos.co.za/framework.jpg

Stage two, you look for method - graph/chart to help you know when market participants arebreaching your conditions in stage one

You must follow the condition in stage one.

You can read half of module 1 here.
http://www.slideshare.net/doherein/believers-trading-academy




We are saying the same point. This is why you must seek all solutions to control draw downs - That draw down was incurred in the second month around August 2010, which means the available equity grew higher than 100,000, it could not have been 1/2 of what is available. A draw down is actually a closed trade in a loss; but if you take the trading over a span of a year there was no loss.

There was no reason for me to have closed down those trades since they all recovered. There was a learning curve. You can either avoid those silly draw downs or ignore them as follows:

1) Avoidig markets or instruments that will cause you serious draw downs.
2) Have efficient means of spreading risk - based on my proper application of chaos and fractal theory - I am using a type of risk management recommended by king Solomon - you will find this in Eccl. 11:1-2. That is one of the greatest fractal statement ever and verstile for risk management of all sort depend on what you are applying it to. You find my explanation here:

http://www.slideshare.net/doherein/king-solomon-cast-thy-bread-upon-the-waters

This becomes a subset model inside the main model. I believe sometimes Elliot Wave theorists are talking about nested fractals. Eccl 11:1-2 is a nested fractal statment.

My original plan was to be having 980 pips per week. This is possible in a stable economy. Just study 7 markets when they hit the bottom and click and go. I am just having 980 pips per month, 3 times lower than what the strategy can do if markets are not in recession. Also, I decided to change my mind so that one is not driven by greed of making 980 pips per week when markets are in great fear. There is nothing you can down when there are whipsaws or fears in the markets, you avoid them or you hold your trades without increasing risk more than 1/7th of your equity.

Lastly, you do not need economics or truck load of indicators to interpret market charts. You need ideologies/doctrines. I am a Geographer who happened to abandon Satanic/worldly doctrines to that of Christ. It works let them call me names, what is important is that it works! You need to know how to interpret chart in my own way.

http://www.slideshare.net/doherein/believers-trading-academy

Year to-date:
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/daniel-feeds.htm

See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/january.htm

Few days into Libya Crisis:
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/february1.htm

Final February results
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/february.htm

March result
See result at: http://www.marketchaos.co.za/monthly/march.htm

I know when a market will crash and bumble or spike high and tumble. But I do not go and start telling people this that market is going to crash, I keep quiet because if I do they call me names and bad prophet. There is no magic in it, you see it vividly from your chart that a market is going to crash.

There are other times you cannot help and you got caught up in some bad markets like nzdlfx, I opened in 2010.11.22 and I believe that was when the first Equake hit that country, and again recently, so it keep tumbling down. But the economy will recover some day in the next 4 years, so the current problem is not sufficient to start withdrawing your investment out of that country.

Another example is Euro/USd I opened on 2010.11.09 08: I only closed it down today after 4 months in profit of 1400. These are the longest running bad markets so far that I have experienced. All other markets tends to go up and not down. thinking of market going down at the middle of a 7 year cycle is foolish and Satan's plan.

Whether you are trading futures, spot, property, energy, pork, gold and silver, all markets have good future outlooks. you must know the right time to invest and what you are fighting against. - draw downs. You do not need indicators but doctrines on what you want to obey - simple mind game and mind control.

I hope this helps you V. you can control whipsaws and choppy signals. You can see them in the markets and you can avoid them.

Total dribble, spout your s*it else where because nobody here wants to hear/read it.