DOW Thrown Into The Mix
11th January 2006
Hi all, the year is starting fairly well, I'm live in the market with my increased bankroll and trading two pairs, GBPUSD and EURUSD.
I've been researching a DOW method which was inspired by a commercial system I purchased before Christmas. I've backtested the last 8 years of DOW daily data and have found remarkably consistent results from what is a very simple end of day system. There's not a trade every day, so I'll only post when there is a trade.
A summary of the past week is as follows:
4/1/06 -36 points
5/1/06 +36 points
9/1/06 -52 points
10/1/06 +50 points
So, fairly breakeven so far, watch this space.
11th January 2006
Hi all, the year is starting fairly well, I'm live in the market with my increased bankroll and trading two pairs, GBPUSD and EURUSD.
I've been researching a DOW method which was inspired by a commercial system I purchased before Christmas. I've backtested the last 8 years of DOW daily data and have found remarkably consistent results from what is a very simple end of day system. There's not a trade every day, so I'll only post when there is a trade.
A summary of the past week is as follows:
4/1/06 -36 points
5/1/06 +36 points
9/1/06 -52 points
10/1/06 +50 points
So, fairly breakeven so far, watch this space.
Sanity Check
13th January 2006
OK, I've closed all my positions after a bas**rd of a day yesterday. My running totals stand at:
EURUSD: +46
GBPUSD: -52
I left the office at 12 noon with a long position on both and came back in at 3pm to find all the profit I'd build up over the past few days had been obliterated, and then some!
No stops? I hear you ask, well yes, but quite wide due to the strategy and indicators I'm using, it hurts like hell.
Then, on the other side of the fence, the DOW method I'd devised came in strong with a nice 30 point gain as expected. I've re-reviewed the results of that method, looking at the last eight years, pulled in my stop loss tighter and it looks great.
I'm considering moving over to the DOW method alone, leaving the FX behind. The advantage to the DOW method also is that its an end of day method, only requiring checking at 9pm each evening, and setting up the trade for the next day.
I dont want it to seem like I'm jumping from system to system, but to have developed something on my own, totally mechanical, independant of TA and Indicators feels right to me and what I should be aiming for all along.
So, no more trading today, market closed on Monday, so expect me back on Tuesday with a new method to trade the DOW only.
Henceforth, this Journal is officially renamed as "Dancing With The Dow" Ha Ha.
Have a good weekend all.
13th January 2006
OK, I've closed all my positions after a bas**rd of a day yesterday. My running totals stand at:
EURUSD: +46
GBPUSD: -52
I left the office at 12 noon with a long position on both and came back in at 3pm to find all the profit I'd build up over the past few days had been obliterated, and then some!
No stops? I hear you ask, well yes, but quite wide due to the strategy and indicators I'm using, it hurts like hell.
Then, on the other side of the fence, the DOW method I'd devised came in strong with a nice 30 point gain as expected. I've re-reviewed the results of that method, looking at the last eight years, pulled in my stop loss tighter and it looks great.
I'm considering moving over to the DOW method alone, leaving the FX behind. The advantage to the DOW method also is that its an end of day method, only requiring checking at 9pm each evening, and setting up the trade for the next day.
I dont want it to seem like I'm jumping from system to system, but to have developed something on my own, totally mechanical, independant of TA and Indicators feels right to me and what I should be aiming for all along.
So, no more trading today, market closed on Monday, so expect me back on Tuesday with a new method to trade the DOW only.
Henceforth, this Journal is officially renamed as "Dancing With The Dow" Ha Ha.
Have a good weekend all.
Dancing With The Dow
17th January 2006
Welcome back. It's the start of a new week for me with my own devised DOW method, backtested over 8 years with fantastic results. I'm leaving FX well alone, I'm not afraid to say it isnt for me.
A quick recap on my DOW method. Its an EOD strategy, entering a trade for the next day at close of play on the current day, simple, enter trade long or short, set stop, set limit, thats it.
I will not be divulging the specifics, only the resultant P and L.
I made a slight error on my last post with the trades so far this year, so I've included an updated summary below:
4/1/06 -33
5/1/06 +50
6/1/06 -77
9/1/06 -52
10/1/06 53
11/1/06 -31
12/1/06 50
13/1/06 -2
So, down 40 odd points just now, but plenty of the month left for a nice comeback. Stay tooned for daily updates.
17th January 2006
Welcome back. It's the start of a new week for me with my own devised DOW method, backtested over 8 years with fantastic results. I'm leaving FX well alone, I'm not afraid to say it isnt for me.
A quick recap on my DOW method. Its an EOD strategy, entering a trade for the next day at close of play on the current day, simple, enter trade long or short, set stop, set limit, thats it.
I will not be divulging the specifics, only the resultant P and L.
I made a slight error on my last post with the trades so far this year, so I've included an updated summary below:
4/1/06 -33
5/1/06 +50
6/1/06 -77
9/1/06 -52
10/1/06 53
11/1/06 -31
12/1/06 50
13/1/06 -2
So, down 40 odd points just now, but plenty of the month left for a nice comeback. Stay tooned for daily updates.
Damn Data
18th January 2006
It turns out the data I used to check my method (EOD from the Yahoo Finance site) has the incorrect High and Low prices for the days trading range - which I have reported to Yahoo.
This means, my fantastic system is scuppered.
Back to the drawing board.
Watch this space.
18th January 2006
It turns out the data I used to check my method (EOD from the Yahoo Finance site) has the incorrect High and Low prices for the days trading range - which I have reported to Yahoo.
This means, my fantastic system is scuppered.
Back to the drawing board.
Watch this space.
I'm Back
27th January 2006
Well, it's been a good week or so since I last posted.
What have I been doing? Take a wild guess, investigating systems of course, looking again for something I can make my future and fortune from, ha!
It's been one hell of an emotional rollercoaster this month, I started out, convinved I had the FX market sussed, upped my stakes and got shot down in the first week.
I (stupidly) abandoned that idea and went in search of something less volatile and decided on the DOW, did all my back testing, with great results, then was absolutley dumbfounded to find that the data I'd used was wrong.
Got updated data, tested again and found my approach still profitable, but with massive drawdowns that I simply couldnt survive mentally through.
So, last week, I've been pondering life, backtesting charts etc etc and have (finally) come up with an approach that I can practically trade.
I'm back on FX (what? I hear you say) trading GBPUSD only for the time being and have had a good day today, with a short signal at 7am from 1.7800 and am sitting on a nice profit at the moment, even after the spike on todays news.
I'm still trading 4H charts. My GBPUSD balance from the previous session was -52 pips, so I'll continue from there.
Looking forward to finally making this damn business pay!
All the best, have a good weekend.
27th January 2006
Well, it's been a good week or so since I last posted.
What have I been doing? Take a wild guess, investigating systems of course, looking again for something I can make my future and fortune from, ha!
It's been one hell of an emotional rollercoaster this month, I started out, convinved I had the FX market sussed, upped my stakes and got shot down in the first week.
I (stupidly) abandoned that idea and went in search of something less volatile and decided on the DOW, did all my back testing, with great results, then was absolutley dumbfounded to find that the data I'd used was wrong.
Got updated data, tested again and found my approach still profitable, but with massive drawdowns that I simply couldnt survive mentally through.
So, last week, I've been pondering life, backtesting charts etc etc and have (finally) come up with an approach that I can practically trade.
I'm back on FX (what? I hear you say) trading GBPUSD only for the time being and have had a good day today, with a short signal at 7am from 1.7800 and am sitting on a nice profit at the moment, even after the spike on todays news.
I'm still trading 4H charts. My GBPUSD balance from the previous session was -52 pips, so I'll continue from there.
Looking forward to finally making this damn business pay!
All the best, have a good weekend.
