Dow - Which Way?

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Hi bid a-tool
over bought over sold oscillators thats what your using is my guess :D
I reckon one indicator could be a 12 period RSI, thats showing a buy on a 30 min dow chart
although on a daily chart everything else still says sell at the mo not over sold yet

have you actually called a long yet or just said it is immanent. :confused:

nice selection of tools by the way, power seller also. never sold myself but i am a buyer

cheers

Don

:)
 
Bid A-Tool said:
DATE: 17 April 2006 9:00pm

At the close of trading today, the indicators have confirmed a reversal (RISE) is on it's way. The Dow, NASDAQ 100 S&P 500, NYSE Comp, NASDAQ Comp, AMEX Comp, Russell 1000, Russell 2000 & Russell 3000 all show the SAME signal......an immanent rise.

How long it's duration or strength or how many points it will rise, I am unable to say. DOW presently at 11,073

Bid A-Tool
Click to expand...

Bid A-Tool,
Can't say much to pick it apart, makes sense to me...............looking for entry tommorrow as well.
Good trading,
erie
 
Bid A-Tool said:
I will be "Sticking my neck out". I obviously will not be right all of the time and I can only inform of the possible turns so the DOW can be traded. What I am unable to do is predict the duration of each turn but if I can predict the tops & bottoms with some accuracy, then the profit should be in between.
Click to expand...

Sounds fair enough to me.

I will be keeping an eye on this thread. I hope the thread stays good humoured.

Good luck for today Bid A Tool
 
rols said:
Bid A-Tool . You say you want us to"pull this system to bits" but there's nothing there to pull, apart from our legs of course. Hey, you're not Bramble in disguise are you?
Click to expand...

My first thought was could it be mug2k
 
I Called it Long yesterday. DOW was at 11,073 although it did fall to about 10,032. My indicators were still saying "go Long" even at this level.
From all the indicators that are being used, is there anyone else that would call a "Long" yesterday on the DOW. I know some of the indicators have a bad reputation for being "time lagged" (late in calling the signal).

Bid A-Tool
 
rols said:
This thread bears an uncanny resemblance in humour and blind faith to
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=16044&page=1&pp=10

An object lesson in Kamikazi Trading.

I wonder if by any chance they are related....
Click to expand...

Who the hell is "Mohamed Gamal"? No not related.

This is about creating a system that works most of the time. If this signal failed (You normally have a good idea tough before it happens and get out) then you would double up on contracts on the next signal. In other words if you bought 1 Long contract now and this signal failed, you would then buy 2 more Long on the next signal....making 3 contracts. Technically if you had enough money you wouldn't loose.

This is my Thread. If anyone wants to pull it apart then I don't mind. Speak your mind, that is what I always say.
I know it's not easy believing in a system but listening to all the News stories from professionals saying were the DOW is going is at best, when you weigh it up, 50/50.

I intend to let you know what it is in time but I just need to see what kind of a reaction it gets compared to other systems that are being used.

Bid A-Tool
 
Last edited:
Kamikazi Trader

Bid A-Tool said:
Who the hell is "Mohamed Gamal"? No not related.

If this signal failed then you would double up on contracts on the next signal. In other words if you bought 1 Long contract now and this signal failed, you would then buy 2 more Long on the next signal....making 3 contracts. Technically if you had enough money you wouldn't loose.

Bid A-Tool
Click to expand...

I rest my case....
 
The Charge of the Light Brigade

One of my favourite poems....

1.
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!
"Charge for the guns!" he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.


2.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Their's not to make reply,
Their's not to reason why,
Their's but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.


3.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.


4.
Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the sabre stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.


5.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.


6.
When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honor the charge they made,
Honor the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred.
 
rols said:
This thread bears an uncanny resemblance in humour and blind faith to
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=16044&page=1&pp=10

An object lesson in Kamikazi Trading.

I wonder if by any chance they are related....
Click to expand...

Hi rols,

Guess you're trying to expose the fake sheikh like Galloway :)

And calling the market to go up after several days of dropping in this bull market is nothing significant. If you buy the DOW now, I would say the chance of making money is 80/20. But the question is where you put your stop. That's why I don't trade it.

Appreciate your patience in building up 'your case' :)

Best,

Hung
 
Bid A-Tool said:
This is about creating a system that works most of the time. If this signal failed (You normally have a good idea tough before it happens and get out) then you would double up on contracts on the next signal. In other words if you bought 1 Long contract now and this signal failed, you would then buy 2 more Long on the next signal....making 3 contracts. Technically if you had enough money you wouldn't loose.
Click to expand...

:LOL:

Funniest thing I've read in a while. Regardless of where the Dow is going (FWIW I'm short) if you strictly followed the approach, above, I can guarantee you will blow your account.

Good luck with it...
 
hungvir said:
Hi rols,

Guess you're trying to expose the fake sheikh like Galloway :)

And calling the market to go up after several days of dropping in this bull market is nothing significant. If you buy the DOW now, I would say the chance of making money is 80/20. But the question is where you put your stop. That's why I don't trade it.

Appreciate your patience in building up 'your case' :)

Best,

Hung
Click to expand...

DOGS OF THE DOW

I'm just having a bit of fun. I'm afraid cynicism is a necessary part of trading too. Once Bid -A-Tool starts trading with his own hard earned lucre he'll perhaps have second thoughts about proclaiming himself as the next prophet of the DOW.

The ATR of the YM/DJI makes it possibly one of the trickiest things to trade. There are many sites online claiming to predict the DOW and as far as I can see they don't come close. In fact for a bit of fun recently I asked my two dogs each morning to predict the number of points they though the DOW would move by wagging their tails and counting the number of wags (the male dog is BULLISH and the female BEARISH) and comparing their combined forecast to five online services. Over the period of two weeks my DOGS OF THE DOW tied in second place. Not very scientific but just making an observation.

Shortly after Bid -A-Tool announced yesterday that his indicator was about to say go 'long' the index proceeded to fall nearly 100 points. Now this is where a bit of humility would go a long way, and myself and others would have been happy to give him a few pointers . Instead he insisted that he was going to prove us all wrong.

I propose a T2W charter which is endorsed by the members and which must be read before any newbie makes his/her first post.

1. We do not believe in Holy Grails or Magic Indicators or Foolproof Systems. So please don't even think about it.
2. Trading is a personal quest which requires blood sweat tears and much else besides and if you want to get rich quick for no effort then try the National Lottery.
3. Collectively we can help each other find our own true paths to success.
 
........I didn't call the DOW Long until the end of the day. I never do until then because the signal could fail. And no I am not DOW a prophet and would never claim to be.

One tip if you are looking for a trading system. If you see this below in the "Disclaimer".....Run a mile. It means "We have fiddled the results".......and we want to RIP you off.......I would also recommend NOT using DOGS to predict a DOW move.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
 
I quite liked the dog idea, was thinking about buying a couple... cheaper than most systems off the net and good company too! (Just ask Gordon Gekko)! :LOL:
 
Bid A-Tool said:
:rolleyes: Over the next year I am going to try and predict each and every DOW turning point (for short term trades). This will be based on only two technical indicators I am using (slightly modified) for my own use.

It's actually the combination of these two indicators that gives the accuracy. The predictions will not include any News Stories, Oil prices or any other factors. This is purely technical analysis.

What do you think the DOW will do you traders (short term)?

The predictions will appear below in RED when they are posted.

DATE: 17 April 2006 9:00pm

At the close of trading today, the indicators have confirmed a reversal (RISE - GO LONG) is on it's way. The Dow, NASDAQ 100 S&P 500, NYSE Comp, NASDAQ Comp, AMEX Comp, Russell 1000, Russell 2000 & Russell 3000 all show the SAME signal......an immanent rise.

How long it's duration or strength or how many points it will rise, I am unable to say. DOW presently at 11,073

Bid A-Tool
Click to expand...

It's the chocolate teapot syndrome again. I give up!

BTW
I believe the word you're looking for is
imminent = adj. about to occur; impending

The spelling you have chosen has a certain Freudian irony
immanent = adj. restricted entirely to the mind; subjective
 
Bid A-Tool said:
I Called it Long yesterday. DOW was at 11,073 although it did fall to about 10,032. My indicators were still saying "go Long" even at this level.
From all the indicators that are being used, is there anyone else that would call a "Long" yesterday on the DOW. I know some of the indicators have a bad reputation for being "time lagged" (late in calling the signal).

Bid A-Tool
Click to expand...

Mine called a SELL trade initially and then a reversal BUY for the afternoon session. I did post these (especially the reversal) before they happened. So I'm not trying to be clever after the event.
 
Bid A-Tool said:
Out of interest what are your "10 day momentum crossed with a 10 day moving average of momentum" saying at the moment? Is it a "buy Signal" now 17th April 9:00pm.

In answer to this question "Problem......what about the signals that turn out not to be turning points?".......Answer: You would double up on contracts on the next signal and not before. So if you bought 1 contract on the DOW, you would then buy 2 more to make 3.

Bid A-Tool
Click to expand...

Keep doubling up mate, I think that's a great strategy, in fact, why wait? Go to a casino, bet on red, if black comes up, double up on red, if it's black again double up, you can't lose! Red has to come up!

Problem - Black Swan!

Anyway FWIW - 10 Mom/MA gave a buy signal at 11053 on the 11th.
 
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