Dow Intraday Charts 31 Jan - 04 Feb

DIN said:
I remember you saying that from the start of this year you were trading for real income (or something like that) it's surprising the impact that can have.

It's a powerful thing the human mind.......

and those holy grails come up more often than you think.

off to watch the fokkers.

see ya.

It's always been real money, to a lesser or greater extent, and I put the size up in December without any major adverse effects. The difference was that I hope to draw some profits out from January to feel that I am actually paying my way doing this. I suspect the problems may have been caused by something different in that I had really got into the mood of the market before Christmas. I was using judgement for entries or exits rather than anything really systematic but it worked with very few losing trades. In the new year I had lost this feel and had nothing systematic to fall back on so I sudenly started over trading and compounding losses. That's why I'm trying to add a little more science now (at least to risk:reward ratios) to protect me more.
 
The thing that really gets me about this lark is...

If it is so hard to make money with a trend following approach during these frequent choppy periods/days, why can't I just fade all the signals and clean up?
 
TraderTony said:
The thing that really gets me about this lark is...

If it is so hard to make money with a trend following approach during these frequent choppy periods/days, why can't I just fade all the signals and clean up?

Because that will result in a trending day :)
 
Fruigi

I have done exactly as you have stated in para. 1 & 2. In fact on my screen I can see the price but no EMA line. Below is the RSI and CCI but no lines, however i can see the figures for them both and they fluctuate with the market. It seems that the chart is not set up correctly and Sierra charts help seems pretty well useless.

As far as printing a screenshot is concerned when you say "them open paint". what do you mean?
 
Orky..... Under Programs\accessories you will find Microsoft 'Paint'.
OK here's where you're going wrong. Having clicked add, you need to click on settings. RSI mov average neeeds to be set to 1, chart region 2, and the colour is the 4th one down on the left hand side- RSI Avg. Line 1 value and line2 value set to 70 and 30 or 80 and 20.Value format is 0.01
For CCI length is 150, mult. is 0.015. Chart region is 3. line colur is the top left one (CCI)
hop this sorts you out..
 
Wrong thread TS Chart Patterns = Tosh..... :cheesy:
Nice if you know what they're telling you. Channel break as suggested, breaking through that 650 tank trap. :cheesy:
CCI RS swich was correct, but now we're at O/B...... So now I have modified the channel lines which show more volatility- lines further apart.
 

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Today I will try to work out what would happen to partial targets (+6, +12 and +30 for 3) and stops trailed on swing high/lows as an alternative to all off at +30, moving stop to b/e around +6.

9:44 1) L 10591. Needs to break up through 600 which may cause problems. Stop to b/e and now I'll let it run. Horrible reversal bar bringing it back below 600 looks ominous. But up again. Beautiful.
9:55 EXIT: +30. (+6 and +12 both hit - average +15 from 3). +30 on trailing stop.

10:00 1) L 10616. Stop to b/e. But struggling this time.
10:05 EXIT: B/e. (+6 hit - average +2 from 3). B/e on trailing.

10:15 3) L 10614. Stops to b/e. Needs to take out HOD. Yes. Hit +19 then straight back down. Ugly. Me thinks this will fail now. Slowly but surely. Then another push up but stalls below HOD. Then through. But stalls 2 ticks from target (+28). Not this again so soon after the last one. Not looking good. Agonising. Dropping like a stone. Urghhhhhhh. And out. Gut wrenching. I knew this approach would be hard at times but that was no fun at all. Too painful if it keeps happening.
11:59 EXIT: B/e. (+6 and +12 hit - average +6 from 3). +8 on trailing stop.

Having missed the target by 2 ticks, that last trade turned out to be stopped out at b/e on the very lowest tick of the pullback before turning back up and going straight to the target at 10644/5. My lucky day. I know, I should have re-entered, but the trend didn't really look strong enough until it was too late.

So, moving the stop to b/e saved me 6 or so on the last trade but cost me 30 on this one. Question is, will this happen (i.e. an eventual winning trade if the stop is left as at entry but a stop out if it is moved to b/e) more than 1 trade in 6?

Also, the trailing stop method is now ostensibly ahead (after the sum total of three trades!). But....and it is a difficult but to assess.....had I taken the 8 point win I may well have taken more trades (likely losers) in the prolonged period of chop that followed whilst I was kept inactive in the original trade.

Taking more wins quickly is certainly a more pleasant way to trade for me, but I am still not convinced that I don't end up more profitable in the long run holding out for the big wins. I'll try to keep comparing and see if it gets clearer.

13:31 4) L 10643. Probably last trade for me - I'm don't want to give back what I've made so far. Needs to push up through the HOD quickly. Stops to b/e. Stalled at +20. Back to 50 level. Needs to push again here. It does but cannot get through high. Go on my son. And out.
14:03 EXIT: +30. (+6 and +12 hit - average +15 for 3). Trailing stop +11.

OK, that's me done but loks like it's going up and up here. Nice total - could have been amazing.

Cannot get chart to load for some reason - will try again later.

+60 from 4
+56 for the day after comms.
+106 for February so far aftr comms. (4 trading days)

Hypothetical alternative exits:
Using +6/+12/+30 targets = +39 average
Using swing high/low trailing stop = +49.

So all in all out came out best today. Might be very different on a typical choppy day.
 
Taking more wins quickly is certainly a more pleasant way to trade for me, but I am still not convinced that I don't end up more profitable in the long run holding out for the big wins. I'll try to keep comparing and see if it gets clearer.

just a thought, tradertony [and thanks for your daily commentry..excellent]..being "true to yourself" is never more apt than in this line of work: The market will surely test your resolve; and until the trader becomes more self assured he or she will be very much at the mercy of the usual insecurities which plague all of us to a greater or lesser degree, self doubt being one of them. Developing your own style is entirely congruent with becoming ever more "true to yourself" but it takes time, lots of time: And time isn't something much of feel we have when the issue of survival rears its ugly head!
Embracing the advice of others who have been before us has its place when looking to develop a own sense of ourselves; and in any arena of life. After all, it would be arrogant to dismiss the wisdom of our teachers and elders when we can bring very little to the table ourselves through a relative degree of inexperience. I dare say the idea of back testing others ideas is a sensible one, even essential if one is to be assured of the usefulness of a particular bit of advice/tool etc. But when trading with your own money it is probably better to do as you will which feels most comfortable to you. After all it is you that has to live [or die ] by the decisions you take: A huge responsibility, i feel. I read somewhere that as humans we make our decisions useing our intellect but act on our feelings.
Trying to live by some elses rules will bring with it huge conflict and your spirit will be desperate to free itself of such a burden . When ever you sense conflict in what your heart is telling you with what someone elses' system is telling you, act on the former prompt! if scalping's your game for now then so be it! trailing stops are for those who rely more on a mechanical approach to trading. Fine for those who prefer that. Targets, too, are all well and good, in theory [and at times in practice], but often as not the market will contrive to defeat those players with a sharp pull back to shake out weak positions only to then return and complete the target objective . etc etc
There are others who watch the p/l and take a profit when it seems enough! to them. A little arbitrary and lacking in finesse, but if it works for them! etc. I elliott wave coupled with chart patterns and macd +14 stochastic and 145 period[!] stochastic on 1 min charts
WHATEVER works for you is right for you! Yoiur personal style must be allowed to develop naturally or any enjoyment this works affords you will be eclipsed by nagging doubt, internal conflict and, dare i say it, the possibilty of your account going nowhere over the longer term. have a look at http://www.winspread.com/Simulator.htm
And Be true to yourself.
 
wellshot said:
Taking more wins quickly is certainly a more pleasant way to trade for me, but I am still not convinced that I don't end up more profitable in the long run holding out for the big wins. I'll try to keep comparing and see if it gets clearer.

just a thought, tradertony [and thanks for your daily commentry..excellent]..being "true to yourself" is never more apt than in this line of work: The market will surely test your resolve; and until the trader becomes more self assured he or she will be very much at the mercy of the usual insecurities which plague all of us to a greater or lesser degree, self doubt being one of them. Developing your own style is entirely congruent with becoming ever more "true to yourself" but it takes time, lots of time: And time isn't something much of feel we have when the issue of survival rears its ugly head!
Embracing the advice of others who have been before us has its place when looking to develop a own sense of ourselves; and in any arena of life. After all, it would be arrogant to dismiss the wisdom of our teachers and elders when we can bring very little to the table ourselves through a relative degree of inexperience. I dare say the idea of back testing others ideas is a sensible one, even essential if one is to be assured of the usefulness of a particular bit of advice/tool etc. But when trading with your own money it is probably better to do as you will which feels most comfortable to you. After all it is you that has to live [or die ] by the decisions you take: A huge responsibility, i feel. I read somewhere that as humans we make our decisions useing our intellect but act on our feelings.
Trying to live by some elses rules will bring with it huge conflict and your spirit will be desperate to free itself of such a burden . When ever you sense conflict in what your heart is telling you with what someone elses' system is telling you, act on the former prompt! if scalping's your game for now then so be it! trailing stops are for those who rely more on a mechanical approach to trading. Fine for those who prefer that. Targets, too, are all well and good, in theory [and at times in practice], but often as not the market will contrive to defeat those players with a sharp pull back to shake out weak positions only to then return and complete the target objective . etc etc
There are others who watch the p/l and take a profit when it seems enough! to them. A little arbitrary and lacking in finesse, but if it works for them! etc. I elliott wave coupled with chart patterns and macd +14 stochastic and 145 period[!] stochastic on 1 min charts
WHATEVER works for you is right for you! Yoiur personal style must be allowed to develop naturally or any enjoyment this works affords you will be eclipsed by nagging doubt, internal conflict and, dare i say it, the possibilty of your account going nowhere over the longer term. have a look at http://www.winspread.com/Simulator.htm
And Be true to yourself.


Good insight Wellshot and much appreciated. One thought I have though is that when trying to master something new, what feels right initially isn't necessarily what is best in the long run. Taking a profit quickly does feel right and easy. Holding for a bigger win is hard. But perhaps that is just inexperience. And perhaps that is why so many of us struggle for a good time at this. If going for the bigger wins starts to prove successful (and I do not know if this will be the case) then maybe over time it will become second nature and feel like the obvious way of doing this.
 
TRADERTONY
glad it was of use..holding for a bigger win [letting your profits run underscores this view] will come . to get there i believe the key is in understanding price action at pivot or tuning points [i use elliott for this mostly...try www.elliott-wave-theory.com ]. Price action is likely as not the best indicator you can have to determine whether or not to exit a trade as price action is "in the now" or "of the moment" , all indicators will confirm a decision but after the event...and if you trade the 1 min chart they're way too slow!
knowing where to exit can be governed by pre determined targets either by profit measure or chart pattern [ i see you split your trades with a 6 then 12 point guarantee out], closing below a moving average, break and close 3 bars past a trend line ..etc etc ...all very fine but, in the end, having a belief that the market will move from place A [ a known] to place B [an unknown] is a trap. In absolute terms , no one on Earth can guarantee where a particular wave will end, even if it's a given in your own mind, only price action will tell you in REAL TIME whether or not to exit sooner or hold for further gains, and nothing else matters ultimately, since it is how you personally read the action that will govern your decision making process.
understand price action and turning points is THE KEY to knowing wihout hesitation when to enter and more importantly , exit a trade. Studying the points on any time frame may well breed the familiarity you're looking for that will allow you to hang in on a trade knowing that until the familiar signs of a reversal appear, the trades is a goodun!
i know little about your history, how long you've been trading , how many contracts you use etc..so PLEASE forgive me if this message is trying you tell you what u already know. my sincere apologies if thats the case.
thank you for your daily posts
 
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Jus a simplistic view and I'm prepared to be shot down, but if you like to take a small move as a profit, would it be prudent to significantly up your stake size to achieve your monthly cash profit requirement? You have proven you can consistently make small points profits........
 
Mr. C cool question, I've been through the experience of it and would say a BIG no , until one has actually been profitable with small moves for about 6-9 months and your balance is twice what it was you started with.
 
ChartMan said:
Orky..... Under Programs\accessories you will find Microsoft 'Paint'.
OK here's where you're going wrong. Having clicked add, you need to click on settings. RSI mov average neeeds to be set to 1, chart region 2, and the colour is the 4th one down on the left hand side- RSI Avg. Line 1 value and line2 value set to 70 and 30 or 80 and 20.Value format is 0.01
For CCI length is 150, mult. is 0.015. Chart region is 3. line colur is the top left one (CCI)
hop this sorts you out..


Thanks Chartman

Unfortunately it did not help so I uninstalled and re-installed which looks like to has cleared the problem. Nevertheless I appreciate your assistance.

orky
 
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