Dow Intraday Charts 22 Nov - 26 Nov

[Bill]

Hi Debs

Re paper trading

I don't know if this is of any use to you. I use the CapitalSpreads SB simulation which seems to work well. It allows stop losses and limit orders as a normal SB account would and 5 point spread on Dow cash. Address is www.CapitalSpreads.com if you're at all interested.

Keep posting

Bill

 

[ChartMan]

Debs and others.... explaining it is easy. Doing it for real is another matter. Don't get disheartened because I make it sound so easy. I know it most certainly is not. But I do know that others have persevered and prospered. At he end of the day, it will come with experience and repeated self batterings as things finally sink in and become second nature.

 

[ChartMan]

Debs- re Sierra, if nothing else, it will get you on a level playing field with the rest of us so you can cross correlate other posts on here with your set-up.

 

[Bill]

Bill

Quote
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
During market hours the spread on IB is 1, i.e the difference between the bid and ask. Pre and post market the spread varies between 2 and 3 points.

Hope this answers your question.

I was looking at it 'in-hours' so I suspect the extra spread must be something to do with the fact that it is a demo system and as such doesn't know if it's 'in-hours' or not.
Thanks for the info Mojazz, clearly the real system is better.

Bill

 

[TraderTony]

Tuesday 23rd November 2004

Opportunity to get long just after 10 at 10487 on the counter trend higher low/indicator TLB (see chart) right at the pivot back to the upside. This subsequently pushed right up to yesterday's HOD but I sat out.

10:22 1) L 10514. Looking for another push up through yesterday's HOD. Takes it out. But then stalls and reverses.
10:24 EXIT: -1. Possible ND now back to the downside.

10:25 2) S 10513. Taking the divergence for a target of 10. Moving down.
10:31 EXIT: +10. Out way too soon as it looks like it is going to run all the way down to the lows.

Stupidly passed up the next opportunity to re-enter the short as it gathered momentum to the down side at 10:45.

10:51 3) S 10487. Looks like the downside may have finished (especially as we're right at the pivot again) but my stop is tight. Whoosh. How wrong can you be (pleasantly for once). Shame I didn't let the previous divergence just run though - it got the entry spot on and could have held all this way.
11:05 EXIT: +29. Indicator hook after sharp bounce near yesterday's support just below 450.

11:19 4) L 10447. Took the PD again for 10. Moves nicely. Then back to entry. Tempted to close. Then able to move stop to -1 so letting it run.
11:25 EXIT: +10.

10 points was a good target this time, although maybe the bottom is in for the day here. Or is it just a bear flag? Best left until it breaks I think.

Wow - sideways, sideways, sideways.

I'm watching the footie this evening and will cash in my chips for the day there.

+48 from 4
+44 for the day after commissions
+285 for November so far after commissions (13 days of trading)

 

[ChartMan]

wd TT.
Futs up 100 or so at around 5:20 am- anyone know why?

 

[debs]

Debs and others.... explaining it is easy. Doing it for real is another matter. Don't get disheartened because I make it sound so easy. I know it most certainly is not. But I do know that others have persevered and prospered. At he end of the day, it will come with experience and repeated self batterings as things finally sink in and become second nature.

CM - thanks for the encouragement. I will persevere for as long as it takes if there is a chance of eventual success.

TT - I'm very impressed. Keep it up. Other peoples' success provides inspiration for us all.


D.

 

[tradesmart]

Futs up 100 or so at around 5:20 am- anyone know why?

It's the prospect of the traditional 'Pre-Thanksgiving' rally CM........!

They're gonna forget about the oil and the dollar and think of the holiday turkey........ :cheesy:

(hope that pre/early market data doesn't spoil the party...... )

 

[TraderTony]

Anyone know if today (Thanksgiving Eve) tends to be a proper trading day?

 

[tradesmart]

"The days around the Thanksgiving holiday have traditionally been good for stocks. The Wednesday before and the Friday after have only 9 losses combined in 52 years on the Dow, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Recent years haven't been quite as kind as past years, though, with six losses in 16 years going back to 1988"

The ‘seasonality’ factor hasn’t done too much for the Dow so far today, but maybe the evening session will be more inspiring…..

A triangle in construction just now, so perhaps we’ll get a decent break later….despite the volatility, the short term bias seems to be ‘up’…….

However, the ‘big picture’ shows a potential H&S which could deter buyers imho, until a possible upside break negates this…….

ps - Bond markets/NYMEX remain closed Friday, while stock markets will open for a shortened session, ending at 1 p.m. ET.

 

[ChartMan]

Mixed signals here with the slope change on CCI but not much headroom. The burried bull flag today gives a minimum target of 550 +/-. Could just squeeze 600 if RSI and CCI get up to their recent peaks, but then what? Best scenario is to break above that downtrend resistance line, then a pullback to make it support... That could be around 500. The other side of the coin is a bear flag across the last 3 days. I have to squint to see that so it's probably wrong.

 

[ChartMan]

Very hard day by the looks with nothing jumping out to say "trade me".... A gamble short at the open, but where was the exit? A gamble long towards the close, as the triangle broke,but would it be worth it with nothing to suggest it would make 520....

 

[Bill]

Hi

Was a little bit too quiet even for the channel rules. Must be
holiday mood.

The price did seem to be bouncing nicely from the 100ema -15 line
but then the exits at the ema100 +15 were just not there. I took a
long after 6:00pm [home @ 5:00pm] and then waited for a sensible
exit. Ater seeing short ND, but nowhere near the upper channel, I
decided enough was enough and accepted 10 points. I took a December
short soon after when the price bounced from the 100ema line and an
intraday long on the next lower channel touch.

Closed the short, again after a bit of divergence, for +6, and
allowed the long to run. I set the stop at BE after an hour or so
but it was taken soon after. Pity really as the price continued to
run.

I've shown a rather iffy bull flag 7:30-8:30 with target met but
only saw this too late.

+16 on such a flat day = Happy bunny

Regards

Bill

+-15 ema Rules are

1. Short if price crosses 100ema and touches/crosses 100ema+15.
2. Long if price crosses 100ema and touches 100ema-15.
3. Short if nd and price is 100ema +15 [or v close]
4. Long if pd and price is 100ema -15 [or v close]
5. Don't trade in the 1st hour
6. Stop losses above/below obvious SR
7. Don't open a trade in the last hour

 

[TraderTony]

Wednesday 24th November 2004

With tomorrow being a holiday the ideal scenario for me would be a couple of early wins then shut up shop early.

10:11 1) L 10518. No follow through.
10:12 EXIT: -7. Ugly.

So much for the ideal scenario.

10:43 2) L 10498. CT going for 10.
10:43 EXIT: +10. Better.

10:56 3) L 10515. No follow through. Looking dire.
11:01 EXIT: -10. Jeez. Should have got out as soon as that one turned against me. No clear trend = no with-trend trades.

Damn damn damn. Mr Angry.

12:36 Could be breaking to downside but I won't risk it as this market looks dead. If I was in profit I would definitely quit now. Too cautious - the short entry was good this time. Although not for too much before it turned back round to the upside.

13:46 Possible ND entry short but even 10 points looks like an awful long way at the moment so again I pass. But again, too cautious - it worked for 10 without any difficulties. And it keeps going down. It has been a messy day but that last entry was good and clear - it was counter trend which is what I've been looking for in the absence of any trend - and I should have taken it.

14:17 4) L 10493. PD with reversal candlesticks to upside. Taking this one (so watch it trend down). Nope - going up.
14:18 EXIT: +10.

I'm liking these counter trend trades in choppy conditions - they are really helping me. Shame I didn't take the previous one.

I'm pretty much back to break even with an hour and a half to go and I suspect it may get quieter and quieter now. I'm going to call it a day, pleased that I just about got away with it.

+3 from 4
-1 for the day after commissions
+284 for November so far after commissions (14 days of trading)

I wonder what we can expect from Friday - I guess many in the US will turn this into a long weekend now?

 

[tradesmart]

The ‘pencilled’ channel from the early part of this week has proved to be not a million miles out – in fact it’s pretty damn close……

An ND top on RSI/CCI suggests that another down leg within the consolidation range may be imminent, but it will be interesting to see what the ‘big boyz’ do when they return from the long holiday weekend – notably the futs close at 505 is considerably below the cash.

Also the Naz is showing signs of retracement which can be a useful guide….

The YM futs market hours chart shown here ‘cos the volume info is useful, but the geometry is virtually identical to the ‘cash’….

 

[ChartMan]

Not much action over the two days..... Still waiting for that triangle to break....

 

[ChartMan]

Barely worth getting out of bed for....what a yawn....

 

[TraderTony]

Thankfully, on learning it was only a half day, I decided to take the day off and get some chores done.