tradesmart
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Cool new 'T2W MODERATOR' logo CM........ 
Bill
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Hi
Was a bit concerned about the reduction in posts on this thread so I thought I'd bore everyone with my own.
I'm still faffing about trying to figure out a more long-term indicator but more of that in a bit. Attached is todays chart showing the channel rule entry points for academic interest. I feel a bit of a fraud posting when I haven't actually traded what I've shown but it does show that today was an appropriate day for these rules.
(Btw the red line is a 100Dema which I'm evaluating Atm)
Bill
+-15 ema Rules are
1. Short if price crosses 100ema and touches/crosses 100ema+15.
2. Long if price crosses 100ema and touches 100ema-15.
3. Short if nd and price is 100ema +15 [or v close]
4. Long if pd and price is 100ema -15 [or v close]
5. Don't trade in the 1st hour
6. Stop losses above/below obvious SR
7. Don't open a trade in the last hour
Was a bit concerned about the reduction in posts on this thread so I thought I'd bore everyone with my own.
I'm still faffing about trying to figure out a more long-term indicator but more of that in a bit. Attached is todays chart showing the channel rule entry points for academic interest. I feel a bit of a fraud posting when I haven't actually traded what I've shown but it does show that today was an appropriate day for these rules.
(Btw the red line is a 100Dema which I'm evaluating Atm)
Bill
+-15 ema Rules are
1. Short if price crosses 100ema and touches/crosses 100ema+15.
2. Long if price crosses 100ema and touches 100ema-15.
3. Short if nd and price is 100ema +15 [or v close]
4. Long if pd and price is 100ema -15 [or v close]
5. Don't trade in the 1st hour
6. Stop losses above/below obvious SR
7. Don't open a trade in the last hour
Attachments
Last edited:
ChartMan said:
Is oil a clue....
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6679511
sorry from going slightly off topic..
Bill
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Me again!
Making sense of the bigger picture is incredibly difficult. Attached are some of my ideas.
The first chart shows a 60 minute chart with 50ema and the 50ema +-100 lines added. I do like these kind of channels as you can probably guess. It looks like pd/nd have similar significance to the 1 minute chart but we kinda knew that already as experts like TS keep showing charts like that. 50ema provides SR, again nothing new. What I am interested in is the significance, if any of the +-100 lines. The bottom about a week ago exhibited pd and was in 'nose-bleed' terrritory beyond 50ema -100. I sort of expected a pull-back and re-test of the 50ema line after that bottom but of course it went the whole-hog and blasted through it.
So now we're tracking the 50ema +100 line and nd is developing, although I suspect not yet fully fledged. In the second chart(s) you will see 3 possible scenarios for tomorrow:
1. 80 point fall
2. 80 point rise
3. flat
and the effect it would have on the charts for tomorrow.
Which do you think is the most likely [or none at all]
I'll make a wild stab at a fall back to re-test the 50ema line then a continuation of the upward trend. I think we have had enough sideways for the moment. OK no! In the tradition of all good seers I'll cover myself and say perhaps one more sideways to up followed by the re-test of the 50ema. There that should do it...
The green line is 60Dema under evaluation. Ignore it.
Ok that ought to pad the thread out a bit.
Regards
Bill
Wd TTony for October. Nice result.
Edit sorry kok-up
Making sense of the bigger picture is incredibly difficult. Attached are some of my ideas.
The first chart shows a 60 minute chart with 50ema and the 50ema +-100 lines added. I do like these kind of channels as you can probably guess. It looks like pd/nd have similar significance to the 1 minute chart but we kinda knew that already as experts like TS keep showing charts like that. 50ema provides SR, again nothing new. What I am interested in is the significance, if any of the +-100 lines. The bottom about a week ago exhibited pd and was in 'nose-bleed' terrritory beyond 50ema -100. I sort of expected a pull-back and re-test of the 50ema line after that bottom but of course it went the whole-hog and blasted through it.
So now we're tracking the 50ema +100 line and nd is developing, although I suspect not yet fully fledged. In the second chart(s) you will see 3 possible scenarios for tomorrow:
1. 80 point fall
2. 80 point rise
3. flat
and the effect it would have on the charts for tomorrow.
Which do you think is the most likely [or none at all]
I'll make a wild stab at a fall back to re-test the 50ema line then a continuation of the upward trend. I think we have had enough sideways for the moment. OK no! In the tradition of all good seers I'll cover myself and say perhaps one more sideways to up followed by the re-test of the 50ema. There that should do it...
The green line is 60Dema under evaluation. Ignore it.
Ok that ought to pad the thread out a bit.
Regards
Bill
Wd TTony for October. Nice result.
Edit sorry kok-up
Attachments
Last edited:
Hi Bill
You're sounding like a true professional ... either up, down or neither
Election day tomorrow, and if they muck things up like last time we might find out who has won by Christmas.
Chart 1 shows a 30 min view with a 3 PK div on RSI (sorry if it isn't very clear).
Chart 2 is the daily chart, 5 up days in a row and heading for triangle resistance but is it running out of steam?
My guess would be down tomorrow. Then based on the election result, maybe up through triangle resistance and beyond or carry on back down towards 9700 again.
Justyn.
You're sounding like a true professional ... either up, down or neither
Election day tomorrow, and if they muck things up like last time we might find out who has won by Christmas.
Chart 1 shows a 30 min view with a 3 PK div on RSI (sorry if it isn't very clear).
Chart 2 is the daily chart, 5 up days in a row and heading for triangle resistance but is it running out of steam?
My guess would be down tomorrow. Then based on the election result, maybe up through triangle resistance and beyond or carry on back down towards 9700 again.
Justyn.
Attachments
All,
I just wanted to put past you guys the question of stake size, I 've been trading the dow for about a year , wish I had come across this site earlier. But my point is ,I haven't to be honest ,kept constant stake size , hence it might be the reason why I 'm failing at this.I have been successful on smaller stake sizes but when I up my stake for some reason it doesn't work as consistently. I would say the I have about 3 successfull trades out 10 if they were higher stake size, if stake size is lower then it's about 7-8 out of 10. Confusing I know, I don't know maybe it's psychological.Does anyone have any comments on when one should increase stake size, i.e what parameters would you apply to yourself, there was slight mention of this in last week's thread, by Trader Tony which was helpful. I mean would it make sense to be collecting 200 odd points a month for about 6 months till one must increase stake size with confidence??
I just wanted to put past you guys the question of stake size, I 've been trading the dow for about a year , wish I had come across this site earlier. But my point is ,I haven't to be honest ,kept constant stake size , hence it might be the reason why I 'm failing at this.I have been successful on smaller stake sizes but when I up my stake for some reason it doesn't work as consistently. I would say the I have about 3 successfull trades out 10 if they were higher stake size, if stake size is lower then it's about 7-8 out of 10. Confusing I know, I don't know maybe it's psychological.Does anyone have any comments on when one should increase stake size, i.e what parameters would you apply to yourself, there was slight mention of this in last week's thread, by Trader Tony which was helpful. I mean would it make sense to be collecting 200 odd points a month for about 6 months till one must increase stake size with confidence??
TraderTony
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Monday 1st November 2004
Not an easy day but I don't think I did too much wrong today yet I've ended up getting stuffed. Two stops each a tick too aggressive cost me two big wins and the losses slowly added up through the day. Disappointing way to start a new month...
10:21 1) S 10002. Chasing again here.
10:24 EXIT: -5. No follow through and quickly stopped out to start the new month with an immediate loss.
10:42 2) S 1009. Out of synch completely with these entries - right at the bottom of big bars without any follow through at all. This one eventually goes a little but cannot break 10,000.
10:44 EXIT: b/e on an ugly candlestick.
11:03 3) L 10024. Trying the long side now. No trend in market yet though. Into profit but quickly back to entry and loss.
11:06 EXIT: +1. Closed again on doji bar and lack of follow through. Then it turns back up and shoots away! I didn't chase the long bar back in and got left out of a huge up move. Sod's law - that really hurts. The entry was excellent but I was shaken out right at the bottom of the move. Thereafter it was just up all the way for an easy 40ish points before any exit signal.
11:39 4) L 10061. Hoping for another push up but very much after the Lord Mayor's Parade I fear. No upwards push though. Then peeps into profit but cannot hold. Stop to b/e.
11:44 EXIT: b/e.
12:42 5) L 10050. No direction or momentum here though. And it goes no where.
12:46 EXIT: -4.
13:15 6) S 10042. Now back on the short side. Flip flopping and directionless.
13:19 EXIT: -2. And then it collapses. Arghhh! Shaken out by one tick for the second time before a big move in my direction. Now I don't want to chase it so instead I run the risk of missing the second big move of the day. Yep - it's gone without me. +17 this time if I'd stayed with it.
14:09 7) S 10024. In at the end of a longish bar and no follow through again. Not happening for me today. Soon well into loss and whipped out for -10. I do not believe it.
14:12 EXIT: -10. That is really horrible.
14:45 8) L 10047. But right in another choppy region. No follow through. Again.
14:54 EXIT: +2. Just cannot get it to move much once I'm in a position today.
-18 from 8
-26 for the day including commissions
-26 for November so far including commissions
Not an easy day but I don't think I did too much wrong today yet I've ended up getting stuffed. Two stops each a tick too aggressive cost me two big wins and the losses slowly added up through the day. Disappointing way to start a new month...
10:21 1) S 10002. Chasing again here.
10:24 EXIT: -5. No follow through and quickly stopped out to start the new month with an immediate loss.
10:42 2) S 1009. Out of synch completely with these entries - right at the bottom of big bars without any follow through at all. This one eventually goes a little but cannot break 10,000.
10:44 EXIT: b/e on an ugly candlestick.
11:03 3) L 10024. Trying the long side now. No trend in market yet though. Into profit but quickly back to entry and loss.
11:06 EXIT: +1. Closed again on doji bar and lack of follow through. Then it turns back up and shoots away! I didn't chase the long bar back in and got left out of a huge up move. Sod's law - that really hurts. The entry was excellent but I was shaken out right at the bottom of the move. Thereafter it was just up all the way for an easy 40ish points before any exit signal.
11:39 4) L 10061. Hoping for another push up but very much after the Lord Mayor's Parade I fear. No upwards push though. Then peeps into profit but cannot hold. Stop to b/e.
11:44 EXIT: b/e.
12:42 5) L 10050. No direction or momentum here though. And it goes no where.
12:46 EXIT: -4.
13:15 6) S 10042. Now back on the short side. Flip flopping and directionless.
13:19 EXIT: -2. And then it collapses. Arghhh! Shaken out by one tick for the second time before a big move in my direction. Now I don't want to chase it so instead I run the risk of missing the second big move of the day. Yep - it's gone without me. +17 this time if I'd stayed with it.
14:09 7) S 10024. In at the end of a longish bar and no follow through again. Not happening for me today. Soon well into loss and whipped out for -10. I do not believe it.
14:12 EXIT: -10. That is really horrible.
14:45 8) L 10047. But right in another choppy region. No follow through. Again.
14:54 EXIT: +2. Just cannot get it to move much once I'm in a position today.
-18 from 8
-26 for the day including commissions
-26 for November so far including commissions
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TraderTony
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Sall - my advice would be to take the conservative option and build up slowly. Depending on the kind of success you have and the draw downs your trading tends to incur, you might decide you need to have a fixed amount of £ or $ in your account for every contract traded (I would suggest this being a fair bit more than the minimum margin allowed by the broker).
Let's say you decide $5k per YM contract and start with $7k in the account. Check before each trade and continue to trade 1 contract until the account reaches $10k and then go to two contracts. Should the account balance fall back below $10k then you go back to 1 contract on the next trade. Reach $15k and you go to 3 contracts and so on. If the account drops below $5k perhaps you paper trade for a while.
Obviously the early jumps from 1 to 2, 2 to 3, represent big psychological steps, but as you progress each step becomes relatively less important and should not affect the way you trade. You can also stand a sustained period of loss without blowing the account. Once you start winning regularly, the number of contracts will grow surprising quickly without it feeling like you have changed the goalposts or increasing the anxiety factor. By scaling back down if you suffer losses you will limit the drawdowns and ensure you stay in the game.
One other thought is that even if you have enough in your account to trade multiple contracts, I would recommend still starting with one and growing when you have reached a certain amount of profit, as above, but in this case you might go up or down 1 contract for every $1k or so of profit/loss, providing the account still actually covers the $5k you have decided upon per contract.
In my opinion there is no need to trade too large too soon - the focus should be on working out how to win and then letting the positions gently grow as the profits come in.
How do other people handle position sizing?
Let's say you decide $5k per YM contract and start with $7k in the account. Check before each trade and continue to trade 1 contract until the account reaches $10k and then go to two contracts. Should the account balance fall back below $10k then you go back to 1 contract on the next trade. Reach $15k and you go to 3 contracts and so on. If the account drops below $5k perhaps you paper trade for a while.
Obviously the early jumps from 1 to 2, 2 to 3, represent big psychological steps, but as you progress each step becomes relatively less important and should not affect the way you trade. You can also stand a sustained period of loss without blowing the account. Once you start winning regularly, the number of contracts will grow surprising quickly without it feeling like you have changed the goalposts or increasing the anxiety factor. By scaling back down if you suffer losses you will limit the drawdowns and ensure you stay in the game.
One other thought is that even if you have enough in your account to trade multiple contracts, I would recommend still starting with one and growing when you have reached a certain amount of profit, as above, but in this case you might go up or down 1 contract for every $1k or so of profit/loss, providing the account still actually covers the $5k you have decided upon per contract.
In my opinion there is no need to trade too large too soon - the focus should be on working out how to win and then letting the positions gently grow as the profits come in.
How do other people handle position sizing?
trendie
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TT,
the plan to trade proportionately to your account size is mathematically simple and logical and accepted wisdom.
The problem is the psychological aspect.
If you lose 50 pts on 1 contract, you accept $250 loss.
If you lose 50 pts on 3 contracts, you have to accept $750 loss.
The problem is we tend to still see the "monetary" value.
If we focus on the points won or lost, the strategy stands.
If we focus on the monetary value, the discipline falters.
So, I suppose, we have to focus on the percentage increase/decrease or points won/lost, not the money.
We are trading to make money, by not focussing on it, we win it, but by focussing on the money we lose it.
How very Zen.
the plan to trade proportionately to your account size is mathematically simple and logical and accepted wisdom.
The problem is the psychological aspect.
If you lose 50 pts on 1 contract, you accept $250 loss.
If you lose 50 pts on 3 contracts, you have to accept $750 loss.
The problem is we tend to still see the "monetary" value.
If we focus on the points won or lost, the strategy stands.
If we focus on the monetary value, the discipline falters.
So, I suppose, we have to focus on the percentage increase/decrease or points won/lost, not the money.
We are trading to make money, by not focussing on it, we win it, but by focussing on the money we lose it.
How very Zen.
TraderTony
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trendie said:
Good points Trendie. My own experience, fwiw, is that points become the be all and end all. I know if I can consistently make points, I will make money. If I can't, I'm doomed. And the jury is still out!
In your example above, the $750 loss on 3 contracts should be less of an ordeal if one has had the discipline to follow the scaling up plan because there should by that stage already be $10k or so profit in the account to have enabled one to have scaled up from 1 contract at $5k account size to 3 contracts at $15k account size.
Trader Tony , Trendie,axthree Many Thanks for your input. This has given me new light in way of doing things and hopefully I 'll programme myself to act accordingly. Increasing contract or stake size as the pool of money grows makes sense, I ave never done that, I 've jumped from say 1 to 5 in a matter of days regardless of money in the account , probably why I blew my first account. I will have to take on this perspective in order to survive the account I have at present , only time will tell.Trendie mentions the importance of looking at it as a points thing rather than money , wish I could do that easily , I am trying though.
Thanks Guys
Thanks Guys
