tradesmart
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I’ve ‘pencilled’ in a couple of lines that I'm working with, that may prove to constitute a downtrend channel which may possibly morph into a big bull flag with a target well into the 10700’s……
Early days yet, but support seems to be holding for now...........
But, of course there’s always a chance that Mr Greenspan may decide to speak again and bring out the bears……
Early days yet, but support seems to be holding for now...........
But, of course there’s always a chance that Mr Greenspan may decide to speak again and bring out the bears……
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tradesmart
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Soya
The charting package is SierraCharts…..
Artwork is by yours truly……
I’m moving on to the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel next……
The charting package is SierraCharts…..
Artwork is by yours truly……
I’m moving on to the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel next……
Hi All,
I paper-traded CMs system for about 2 months over the summer period, but despite having a positive result overall, my weekly average was declining. I never developed enough confidence to trade for real and I got a bit confused with the strategy.
I eventually got bored with paper-trading and gave up...but I'm back to give it another go and this time I have decided to follow Trader Tonys' excellent example and post some of my trading attempts here. (Tony, I hope you don't mind me copying your reporting format).
I'm not sure what preparation I should be doing...I see on Bloomberg that the Dow futures are down , but after looking at the daily and the 10min Dow charts, I have no 'feeling' for what direction the market will follow today.....well, here goes...
11:01 ENTER short at 10442 (ema-10446, sl-10466). Price has crossed the ema twice since the open, but this is the first 'pullback to the ema' opportunity that I have seen. But I am nervous going short as I can see a PD on the 10min chart, indicating that the trend might eventually be up.
12:26 The market seems indecisive and price has just come off 10434. The LOD is 10432 so far and it is the 'magic' 32 level, so perhaps this will provide strong support - should I close the short?. On the other hand, if it breaks down here, surely it will continue to move much lower. It would be safe to get out (with only 8 points), but I can't help thinking of that phrase..."cut your losses and let your profits run".
13:14 EXIT at 10461 with a 19 point loss. (At 12:26, I should have been thinking about the phrase "never let a profit turn into a loss!"). What a terrible start.
Well, that was my one and only trade for the day. I couldn't find the right time to re-enter, so I missed the run up to 10500 (hope you others got it ). Hindsight is a great thing...if only I had waited another half hour before entering my trade; then I might have gone long at the pullback to ema at 11:28 and been on the right side of the market for the rest of the day.
What have I learnt?...pay attention to the bigger picture (in this case, the PD on the 10min chart) and "if in doubt, STAY OUT!". Oh well, tomorrow is another day......
Debs
I paper-traded CMs system for about 2 months over the summer period, but despite having a positive result overall, my weekly average was declining. I never developed enough confidence to trade for real and I got a bit confused with the strategy.
I eventually got bored with paper-trading and gave up...but I'm back to give it another go and this time I have decided to follow Trader Tonys' excellent example and post some of my trading attempts here. (Tony, I hope you don't mind me copying your reporting format).
I'm not sure what preparation I should be doing...I see on Bloomberg that the Dow futures are down , but after looking at the daily and the 10min Dow charts, I have no 'feeling' for what direction the market will follow today.....well, here goes...
11:01 ENTER short at 10442 (ema-10446, sl-10466). Price has crossed the ema twice since the open, but this is the first 'pullback to the ema' opportunity that I have seen. But I am nervous going short as I can see a PD on the 10min chart, indicating that the trend might eventually be up.
12:26 The market seems indecisive and price has just come off 10434. The LOD is 10432 so far and it is the 'magic' 32 level, so perhaps this will provide strong support - should I close the short?. On the other hand, if it breaks down here, surely it will continue to move much lower. It would be safe to get out (with only 8 points), but I can't help thinking of that phrase..."cut your losses and let your profits run".
13:14 EXIT at 10461 with a 19 point loss. (At 12:26, I should have been thinking about the phrase "never let a profit turn into a loss!"). What a terrible start.
Well, that was my one and only trade for the day. I couldn't find the right time to re-enter, so I missed the run up to 10500 (hope you others got it ). Hindsight is a great thing...if only I had waited another half hour before entering my trade; then I might have gone long at the pullback to ema at 11:28 and been on the right side of the market for the rest of the day.
What have I learnt?...pay attention to the bigger picture (in this case, the PD on the 10min chart) and "if in doubt, STAY OUT!". Oh well, tomorrow is another day......
Debs
Well done Debs. Beware the 10 min divergences. They may be ok for a short term reversal, but they need 3 days ( generally) to signal a trend reversal. So whilst it came good today,AND there is a nice bull flag there, don't bank on more up tomorrow. As I said in the last thread, I'd like to see CCI go through zero before I was convinced.Having said that, there's an easy stop at 480 for a long tomorrow....probably worth the gamble if the futs hold up...
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A useful rise if you had the patience to wait for the triangle to pan out or taking an early long off the 32's....T1 was never really in doubt at the 464 bounce .... Three or four opportunities to get out around 500, but no clear cut exit, bar the failure to make a re test of 505.
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Bill
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Hi
Just one loser today. Home after 5 to see what looked like complete apathy and a perfect day for the channel rules?....Err...No !
I saw another of my dodgy tri's [see chart] with target but wasn't sure which way it would break so I waited and 'by the time the market 'confirmed' what I suspected, it is was too late'. Now where have I heard that before?... Don't worry it'll come to me Anyway the target was not all that large so I wasn't too bothered so waited for a channel rule entry. The first touch on the ema100 +15 line was a no no since the tri target had not been met but the ND rule 3 entry seemed a good one. A change in sentiment always catches me out as by this time the MMs must have 'done lunch' and worked up an appetite for buying. By the time it finally dawned on me the trade was in loss. I was glad to close it at ema100 +15, now as a support line rather than resistance.
After that I wasn't sure what to do. Would there be res @ 500? Would it go straight through. There was nd but as TS once said 'you always get nd/pd when the price is trending' it is not necessarily a good entry point. Anyway I stayed out which I still think was the right thing to do.
So another day another dollar......less ! -16 today
Regards
Bill
Welcome to the dow thread Debs and great post btw.
+-15 ema Rules are
1. Short if price crosses 100ema and touches/crosses 100ema+15.
2. Long if price crosses 100ema and touches 100ema-15.
3. Short if nd and price is 100ema +15 [or v close]
4. Long if pd and price is 100ema -15 [or v close]
5. Don't trade in the 1st hour
6. Stop losses above/below obvious SR
7. Don't open a trade in the last hour
+ a few more under development
Just one loser today. Home after 5 to see what looked like complete apathy and a perfect day for the channel rules?....Err...No !
I saw another of my dodgy tri's [see chart] with target but wasn't sure which way it would break so I waited and 'by the time the market 'confirmed' what I suspected, it is was too late'. Now where have I heard that before?... Don't worry it'll come to me
Anyway the target was not all that large so I wasn't too bothered so waited for a channel rule entry. The first touch on the ema100 +15 line was a no no since the tri target had not been met but the ND rule 3 entry seemed a good one. A change in sentiment always catches me out as by this time the MMs must have 'done lunch' and worked up an appetite for buying. By the time it finally dawned on me the trade was in loss. I was glad to close it at ema100 +15, now as a support line rather than resistance.After that I wasn't sure what to do. Would there be res @ 500? Would it go straight through. There was nd but as TS once said 'you always get nd/pd when the price is trending' it is not necessarily a good entry point. Anyway I stayed out which I still think was the right thing to do.
So another day another dollar......less ! -16 today
Regards
Bill
Welcome to the dow thread Debs and great post btw.
+-15 ema Rules are
1. Short if price crosses 100ema and touches/crosses 100ema+15.
2. Long if price crosses 100ema and touches 100ema-15.
3. Short if nd and price is 100ema +15 [or v close]
4. Long if pd and price is 100ema -15 [or v close]
5. Don't trade in the 1st hour
6. Stop losses above/below obvious SR
7. Don't open a trade in the last hour
+ a few more under development
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Bill said:Hi CM
I'm not sure how you got a T1 of 490. I made the height of the triange about 25 and therefore the breakout 25 which gave me about 470ish? What did I miss? [apart from lots of points of course
TIA
Bill
You're right, I'm wrong. Got carried away with the bounce at 64. T1 was around 470/475
TraderTony
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Monday 22nd November 2004
I'm left with mixed feelings today. I started pretty well and then spotted the CT divergence entries in the flat choppy period. Although I did not take them, I at least stayed out and refrained from trying with-the-trend entries. However, when the market then broke out and rode ever on wards I lacked the confidence, bottle or insight to let any of the trades run which seriously curtailed my returns. Trailing a stop under the swing lows (which I have been experimenting with recently) would have kept me in the entire run until finally giving an exit at 10503 at 14:33. Having said all that, I shouldn't be too disappointed with 30 plus points.
9:41 1) S 10451. Drops a little but stalls at Friday's LOD at 10447.
9:47 EXIT: +1 on indicator hook with price unable to break 447.
9:57 2) S 10451. Try again! Has to take out 447 this time or I'm out. It does but no real follow through.
10:02 EXIT: +7. Closed on inability to break 43 level on 4 consecutive bars.
Then it goes through!! But only for one tick, so a decent exit.
I didn't take the counter trend move up off the PD but it was good for a quick 10. And some!
Ditto the ND back down from 10:35 for another 10. I'm seeing the counter trend trades but still lack confidence in taking them (having spent the past few months conditioning myself to trade with the trend).
10:48 3) S 10451. Back to a trend trade which may be risking when the CT trades are working so well. Small follow through but not convincing.
10:55 EXIT: +4 on indicator hook.
Then absolutely flat.
Good PD at 12:25 to go long ahead of the break up (but I didn't take it as the range has become so narrow that even a 10 point move looks beyond it). Then a second good chance to go long after the higher low at 12:47.
Potential ND at 13:06 failed and is followed by another possible long entry so perhaps it really is going up now. Soon find out...
13:15 4) L 10470. Anxious going in after I've passed so many possible entries already. Staggers around but in a generally up wards direction. Could reverse at any moment though.
13:25 EXIT: +5. I'm not going to stick around in trades yet today.
But I should have done as it's still going up. In fact, from the big PD at the double bottom low at 12:25 (mentioned above) it has been up all the way without taking out a swing low yet.
13:30 5) L 10477. Even more nervous this time, especially when I probably should still be long from the last entry at 470. The question now is should I finally let it run or keep scalping? It could be heading back to 500 so I'll put a target there regardless.
13:43 EXIT: +10. Bottled it! Out too soon.
14:00 6) L 10492. This is getting silly. Target at 500 again.
14:00 EXIT: +8. Well, that was sweet, at least.
But out too soon again and still no swing low has been taken out since the low.
Possible CT ND entry short following double top at 14:30 (511) would have again hit my 10 point CT target without any heat (but I didn't take it).
Swing low finally taken out at 14:33 at 10503.
+35 from 6
+29 for the day after commissions
+241 for November so far after commissions (12 days of trading)
I'm left with mixed feelings today. I started pretty well and then spotted the CT divergence entries in the flat choppy period. Although I did not take them, I at least stayed out and refrained from trying with-the-trend entries. However, when the market then broke out and rode ever on wards I lacked the confidence, bottle or insight to let any of the trades run which seriously curtailed my returns. Trailing a stop under the swing lows (which I have been experimenting with recently) would have kept me in the entire run until finally giving an exit at 10503 at 14:33. Having said all that, I shouldn't be too disappointed with 30 plus points.
9:41 1) S 10451. Drops a little but stalls at Friday's LOD at 10447.
9:47 EXIT: +1 on indicator hook with price unable to break 447.
9:57 2) S 10451. Try again! Has to take out 447 this time or I'm out. It does but no real follow through.
10:02 EXIT: +7. Closed on inability to break 43 level on 4 consecutive bars.
Then it goes through!! But only for one tick, so a decent exit.
I didn't take the counter trend move up off the PD but it was good for a quick 10. And some!
Ditto the ND back down from 10:35 for another 10. I'm seeing the counter trend trades but still lack confidence in taking them (having spent the past few months conditioning myself to trade with the trend).
10:48 3) S 10451. Back to a trend trade which may be risking when the CT trades are working so well. Small follow through but not convincing.
10:55 EXIT: +4 on indicator hook.
Then absolutely flat.
Good PD at 12:25 to go long ahead of the break up (but I didn't take it as the range has become so narrow that even a 10 point move looks beyond it). Then a second good chance to go long after the higher low at 12:47.
Potential ND at 13:06 failed and is followed by another possible long entry so perhaps it really is going up now. Soon find out...
13:15 4) L 10470. Anxious going in after I've passed so many possible entries already. Staggers around but in a generally up wards direction. Could reverse at any moment though.
13:25 EXIT: +5. I'm not going to stick around in trades yet today.
But I should have done as it's still going up. In fact, from the big PD at the double bottom low at 12:25 (mentioned above) it has been up all the way without taking out a swing low yet.
13:30 5) L 10477. Even more nervous this time, especially when I probably should still be long from the last entry at 470. The question now is should I finally let it run or keep scalping? It could be heading back to 500 so I'll put a target there regardless.
13:43 EXIT: +10. Bottled it! Out too soon.
14:00 6) L 10492. This is getting silly. Target at 500 again.
14:00 EXIT: +8. Well, that was sweet, at least.
But out too soon again and still no swing low has been taken out since the low.
Possible CT ND entry short following double top at 14:30 (511) would have again hit my 10 point CT target without any heat (but I didn't take it).
Swing low finally taken out at 14:33 at 10503.
+35 from 6
+29 for the day after commissions
+241 for November so far after commissions (12 days of trading)
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Tues 23 Nov.
The market is just about to open and I have taken on board Chartmans' comments about divergences on the 10min chart (thanks CM for the feedback – it is greatly appreciated).
I think it may be a ‘downish’ day .The futures have been down for most of the morning, although it now looks as though there will be a flat open. But I wonder if things will slow down as the US approaches Thanksgiving on Thursday.
9:43 ENTER Short at 10483 (ema -10486, sl-10506). I know we are only 15 mins into the session and there is support at 480, but I have such a strong suspicion that we are heading down and I don’t want to miss an entry point.
10:12 EXIT at 10505 for a loss of 22 points. Well that will teach me a lesson. I should ignore my ‘feelings’ and “trade what I see, not what I think”.
(I think it was Dr Alexander Elder who wrote, (in Trading for a Living), that novices have no right to have ‘feelings’ about what the market might do. He says you only earn that right after many years of experience. I must remember this next time I have a 'hunch').
And I should be more patient. But if I hadn’t gone short at the 9:43 pullback, I suppose I would have at the 9:53 pullback (PB).
10:33 the DOW has come back down to the 100ema, but I still can’t bring myself to enter a long trade. I think the steady decline from the recent high is making me cautious.
10:57 I have now watched the DOW fall thru the ema, and the previous LOD (10472) and finally hit a triangle target of 10454. It happened so fast, I didn’t find an entry point.
12:08 The market is flat at the 10450 level. According to the system, I should enter a short now as it has retraced back to the ema, but instead I have decided to take a break as this is just too boring for words.
13:34 ENTER long at 10456 (ema-10451, sl-10431). I’m back and have decided to take a chance and enter on this PB to the ema.
14:51 EXIT at 10486 for 30 pts. I’m exiting because I don’t want to lose this gain. But I think if I was following the system properly, I should have stayed in and let the profits run, as I am still above the ema. Or perhaps I should have exited earlier at the 10500 resistance point.
Two trades in total for the day (-22+30 = 8pt gain). But I think it was just pure luck that I ended up positive at all. It could have so easily gone the other way....if I hadn’t taken a break from the screen, I would have followed the rules and gone short at 12:45 PB which would have resulted in 2 losses for the day.
I can’t follow the markets tomorrow due to other commitments. This is a great shame as I obviously need all the practice I can get!. Best of luck to all tomorrow.
Debs
The market is just about to open and I have taken on board Chartmans' comments about divergences on the 10min chart (thanks CM for the feedback – it is greatly appreciated).
I think it may be a ‘downish’ day .The futures have been down for most of the morning, although it now looks as though there will be a flat open. But I wonder if things will slow down as the US approaches Thanksgiving on Thursday.
9:43 ENTER Short at 10483 (ema -10486, sl-10506). I know we are only 15 mins into the session and there is support at 480, but I have such a strong suspicion that we are heading down and I don’t want to miss an entry point.
10:12 EXIT at 10505 for a loss of 22 points. Well that will teach me a lesson. I should ignore my ‘feelings’ and “trade what I see, not what I think”.
(I think it was Dr Alexander Elder who wrote, (in Trading for a Living), that novices have no right to have ‘feelings’ about what the market might do. He says you only earn that right after many years of experience. I must remember this next time I have a 'hunch').
And I should be more patient. But if I hadn’t gone short at the 9:43 pullback, I suppose I would have at the 9:53 pullback (PB).
10:33 the DOW has come back down to the 100ema, but I still can’t bring myself to enter a long trade. I think the steady decline from the recent high is making me cautious.
10:57 I have now watched the DOW fall thru the ema, and the previous LOD (10472) and finally hit a triangle target of 10454. It happened so fast, I didn’t find an entry point.
12:08 The market is flat at the 10450 level. According to the system, I should enter a short now as it has retraced back to the ema, but instead I have decided to take a break as this is just too boring for words.
13:34 ENTER long at 10456 (ema-10451, sl-10431). I’m back and have decided to take a chance and enter on this PB to the ema.
14:51 EXIT at 10486 for 30 pts. I’m exiting because I don’t want to lose this gain. But I think if I was following the system properly, I should have stayed in and let the profits run, as I am still above the ema. Or perhaps I should have exited earlier at the 10500 resistance point.
Two trades in total for the day (-22+30 = 8pt gain). But I think it was just pure luck that I ended up positive at all. It could have so easily gone the other way....if I hadn’t taken a break from the screen, I would have followed the rules and gone short at 12:45 PB which would have resulted in 2 losses for the day.
I can’t follow the markets tomorrow due to other commitments. This is a great shame as I obviously need all the practice I can get!. Best of luck to all tomorrow.
Debs
Bill
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Oh dear....
More of the same I'm afraid. Home after 5pm to see a big rise in oil and a big fall in the Dow. So we're looking for shorts? The price came back up close to the 100ema and, at the time, looked like a bear flag forming with huge target. Yes let me have some O' dat. To be honest the trade did go into profit but quickly went out again. Then a small expanding triangle started to form with target around 480. Should have closed for a small loss then looked for an entry but instead I lost 18 points.
The short just after 500 looked promising but it was getting late so I closed at expected resistance at the 100ema for +12.
So -6 is not a disaster is it? (lie to me ok)
A question for all the IB experts.
I've been looking at the IB TWS demo trading system and for YM Dec the Bid Ask difference seems to be 2 [and sometimes 3] points. I was under the impression that it was 1 point. If we allow another point for trading costs then a 3 point spread isn't that much better than SB is it? Bear in mind I have absolutely no idea about this type of system. Did I do something wrong, or is the real price different to the demo one?
TIA
Regards
Bill
More of the same I'm afraid. Home after 5pm to see a big rise in oil and a big fall in the Dow. So we're looking for shorts? The price came back up close to the 100ema and, at the time, looked like a bear flag forming with huge target. Yes let me have some O' dat. To be honest the trade did go into profit but quickly went out again. Then a small expanding triangle started to form with target around 480. Should have closed for a small loss then looked for an entry but instead I lost 18 points.
The short just after 500 looked promising but it was getting late so I closed at expected resistance at the 100ema for +12.
So -6 is not a disaster is it?
(lie to me ok)A question for all the IB experts.
I've been looking at the IB TWS demo trading system and for YM Dec the Bid Ask difference seems to be 2 [and sometimes 3] points. I was under the impression that it was 1 point. If we allow another point for trading costs then a 3 point spread isn't that much better than SB is it? Bear in mind I have absolutely no idea about this type of system. Did I do something wrong, or is the real price different to the demo one?
TIA
Regards
Bill
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Could have been an easy day, with the first entry at the 500 rest/short time ND going short, covering on the PD bottom around 445/450. Looked like it wasn't going lower as the three drops failed to make it to the 32 line, so looking for a long... Taking either the early break of the 100MA or the later pullback would have earned a few more points.Confirmation was soon to come as the price went through 64 and pulled back before taking off to the top again, testing yet again 500. Common sense should have told you to get out in the absence of TA as the second peak failed 500 at 496.
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Quote
Two trades in total for the day (-22+30 = 8pt gain). But I think it was just pure luck that I ended up positive at all. It could have so easily gone the other way....if I hadn’t taken a break from the screen, I would have followed the rules and gone short at 12:45 PB which would have resulted in 2 losses for the day.
Hi Debs
I got the feeling you paper trading. And above you had 8 point gain, When you trade for real Please remember that in the real world you would have had a loss of 4 points not a 8 point gain, on the best spreadbetting spreads you would have paid 3 points to get in and out, on 2 trades this would have cost you 12 points. Just make sure when paper trading add this to you gains or loses. Then you wont be surprised when trading with real money and finding, dam this game his hard.I MADE 8 POINTS BUT IM DOWN 4 TICKS. be careful
Good luck
CJ
Two trades in total for the day (-22+30 = 8pt gain). But I think it was just pure luck that I ended up positive at all. It could have so easily gone the other way....if I hadn’t taken a break from the screen, I would have followed the rules and gone short at 12:45 PB which would have resulted in 2 losses for the day.
Hi Debs
I got the feeling you paper trading. And above you had 8 point gain, When you trade for real Please remember that in the real world you would have had a loss of 4 points not a 8 point gain, on the best spreadbetting spreads you would have paid 3 points to get in and out, on 2 trades this would have cost you 12 points. Just make sure when paper trading add this to you gains or loses. Then you wont be surprised when trading with real money and finding, dam this game his hard.I MADE 8 POINTS BUT IM DOWN 4 TICKS. be careful
Good luck
CJ
cj12 said:
Hi CJ,
You are right - I am paper-trading and only posting the gross points. However, as I trade, I keep my SB account open (and on screen), so that I can monitor what the true entry and exit points would be on each trade. I enter all this info into a spreadsheet (i.e. both the market quote and the SB quote). But at the moment, I am just interested in improving my trade execution and finding out if there is any chance of making consistent profits.
I paper-traded for some weeks during summer and I only recently realised how much better my results would have been if I had been using direct access, rather than SB. Over a 2 month period, I was profitable (on paper) despite the SB spread. But I can see that based on the last 2 days, perhaps my earlier results were just down to luck. We will see......
Thanks for your message. I welcome the feedback ..........
Best wishes, Debs
Bill
Quote
A question for all the IB experts.
I've been looking at the IB TWS demo trading system and for YM Dec the Bid Ask difference seems to be 2 [and sometimes 3] points. I was under the impression that it was 1 point. If we allow another point for trading costs then a 3 point spread isn't that much better than SB is it? Bear in mind I have absolutely no idea about this type of system. Did I do something wrong, or is the real price different to the demo one?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
During market hours the spread on IB is 1, i.e the difference between the bid and ask. Pre and post market the spread varies between 2 and 3 points.
Hope this answers your question.
Quote
A question for all the IB experts.
I've been looking at the IB TWS demo trading system and for YM Dec the Bid Ask difference seems to be 2 [and sometimes 3] points. I was under the impression that it was 1 point. If we allow another point for trading costs then a 3 point spread isn't that much better than SB is it? Bear in mind I have absolutely no idea about this type of system. Did I do something wrong, or is the real price different to the demo one?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
During market hours the spread on IB is 1, i.e the difference between the bid and ask. Pre and post market the spread varies between 2 and 3 points.
Hope this answers your question.
