Dow 2008

[francisfinley]

are you all as dumbfounded as i am on today, its utter sheer bloody madness. FTSE has only just turned on.

 

[Atilla]

The US government has taken temporary control of troubled American mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the largest state bailout in history.

On a fundamental level this is BIG BAD NEWS.

Somebody has to service that debt. We are looking at;

1. Tax rises or
2. Interest rate rises

to balance the books. Typically, I don't think this important piece of what comes next has been built into the rises.

Having said all that I still see the DOW at 13000 by end of year. Time will tell... :whistling

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

GUYS!

I shorted on sunday night. Made about (200 ticks) 50 points on the NQ. Wowzeeeeee!
The gap up was a head fake of sorts. This has been an awesome day to wake up and find 1500 in profit from sleeping!

Calling it a day! Good trading guys.

 

[tantra]

Having said all that I still see the DOW at 13000 by end of year. Time will tell... :whistling

I think technically, what you are saying is probably true. However IMHO, i think on a fundamental level it not so possible - this credit crunch is gonna hit hard.

A few weeks ago, i would have agreed that the 13000 level was near, as oil was at a high and needed to come down - thus pushing the markets up.. but now with oil off its highs, and heading towards that $100 level, its having no such impact on the market.

This economy has run out of steam!

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Fundamentals of US economy will get worse with bailout of freddie and fannie, but it's a situation where you're "damned if you do, damned if you don't."

The lenders default, banks default, banks default, people pull out their money and boom depression.
The bailout should save the US a few $$.

I call a down day tomorrow. Just a guess though.

 

[Atilla]

Fundamentals of US economy will get worse with bailout of freddie and fannie, but it's a situation where you're "damned if you do, damned if you don't."

The lenders default, banks default, banks default, people pull out their money and boom depression.
The bailout should save the US a few $$.

I call a down day tomorrow. Just a guess though.

I agree there was nothing else to do just like the BoE really. Lenders of last resort. However, this is the last line of defence. Fed had to do it. Far cry from the expected 100bn loss Bernanke predicted some time last year.

I lost my compass on direction. I think we'll see continued support with a bounce towards the end of the year. As long as we don't fall through 11200 again.

 

[nikwest]

anyone got any ideas , this is f*cking insane !!!!

 

[breadman]

we have just had the last two hourly bars close between 11520 and 11440, which ever way we break on a hourly chart will give you an idea of the trend direction.

 

[fibonelli]

to nikwest and all who are open minded,

In the early 1930s, the govt at the time also tried this sort of sh1t to try to prop up wildly inflated asset values by absorbing "assets" of negligible value from the b@nk$ter$.

If they continually do this, there is a danger of Government Bond yields violently spiking up causing a very severe recession if not GD 2.0.

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

I call a down day tomorrow. Just a guess though.

:clap: Do not be fooled by the early 9AM short squeeze, it was just an attempt to force little shorts out of their positions! I always sit on my hands when that happens. Wait for the top to capitulate and roll over.

Down day just as I guessed. I'm not sure if we'll make new lows on NQ or YM by the end of today, but there is a possibility.

I would keep your eyes peeled for the short covering rally :cheesy:

 

[dans_ya_man]

Seems to be a lot of resistance at the 11340 area today, been touched around 5 times today on my 10 min chart. Entered a short at the last one

 

[dans_ya_man]

Closed 11280, may well be premature but the way things have been going I`m happy with 60 points in the bank

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Markets were slightly up today, but very choppy.

No profit here, but I'm keeping on guard!
How's everyone else doing?

 

[Atilla]

Markets were slightly up today, but very choppy.

No profit here, but I'm keeping on guard!
How's everyone else doing?

I'm still looking for my compass.

 

[cu20052003]

Hi, want some pence of my views?

I will give you some pointers and directions.

Due to the bailout of the 2 LARGE Conglomerate, the US market is heading for the rough seas! You know when a company declares a dividend, its share price dip?!

But in this case, the Fan and Fred are just empty shells! So, can these companies be worth anything at all? Not really, so if the US gov did not change the 2 companies when they supposedly TAKE OVER, then it will be like taking on more debt!

Buying in the companies at the expense of the state and its people! Short-term wise, a straight plummet! A weaken US dollar as well .......... So, Forex chaps can try shorting and well as the indices chaps!

And also ......... long term wise, there will be weakness in is financials and banks as no investors would be rushing in and many would rush to exit ...........

The Fan and the Fred - they are NOT TOO LARGE to go bust, really.

US Fed gov is taking on more than it can chew here, on this. Should have tkane half the Fan first ........... taking short steps ...........

Sad, but 90-100 per cent ............. A REALITY.


S K

I'm still looking for my compass.

 

[firewalker99]

I'm still looking for my compass.

The only thing you need to know, is where to find South

 

[cu20052003]

A little correction on my part ...........

.......should have taken only half of FANNIE MAE.

A sad but TRUE picture of the US financial scene.

S K

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi there

Be the One for GOD, so that I may appoint a deliverer for thy SOUL!

HariHaraBramKalki(S K)

360.yahoo.com/cu20052003

I will give you some pointers and directions.

Due to the bailout of the 2 LARGE Conglomerate, the US market is heading for the rough seas! You know when a company declares a dividend, its share price dip?!

But in this case, the Fan and Fred are just empty shells! So, can these companies be worth anything at all? Not really, so if the US gov did not change the 2 companies when they supposedly TAKE OVER, then it will be like taking on more debt!

Buying in the companies at the expense of the state and its people! Short-term wise, a straight plummet! A weaken US dollar as well .......... So, Forex chaps can try shorting and well as the indices chaps!

And also ......... long term wise, there will be weakness in is financials and banks as no investors would be rushing in and many would rush to exit ...........

The Fan and the Fred - they are NOT TOO LARGE to go bust, really.

US Fed gov is taking on more than it can chew here, on this. Should have tkane half the Fan first ........... taking short steps ...........

Sad, but 90-100 per cent ............. A REALITY.


S K

 

[Lee Shepherd]

.......should have taken only half of FANNIE MAE.

A sad but TRUE picture of the US financial scene.

S K

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi there

Be the One for GOD, so that I may appoint a deliverer for thy SOUL!

HariHaraBramKalki(S K)

360.yahoo.com/cu20052003

Say something positive, I dare you.

Have you got it in you??????

Your sooooo negative and rapped up in your own world you probably wont even respond to this post, instead, you just respond to your own.

I dread to think what the state of your world is like, saying that, keep it to yourself.

 

[breadman]

The only thing you need to know, is where to find South

that's as long as we don't have a higher low now with a rally which goes higher than 11860, before we turn back down.

 

[Atilla]

that's as long as we don't have a higher low now with a rally which goes higher than 11860, before we turn back down.

Hi guys,

Thank you for the pointers but I hava an uneasy feeling that the upside is still a contender and really choosing to sit out. These sideways moves just too much for my MA system which prefers a little more established trends than the massive volatility we have been getting on an intraday basis.

If I can't catch the big falls trying to participate during the rest is not good for me. I've had some good few weeks followed by couple of mediocre and bad ones.

My guestimate is 13000 by end of year. Whether we make 10500 before then or bounce up from here I'm still waiting to see.

Also, I'm finding quite refreshing not looking with a view to participating but looking to catch the big change in trend. It's coming soon.