Dow 2007

[lurkerlurker]

The CBOT is having problems - the live books aren't displaying the order book. Those of you who trade DMA make sure you have either a broker who does the Dow pit contract, or access to the S&P to hedge if the ECBOT falls over.

 

[Hook Shot]

Hs
Very prescient comment !

Thanks catracho...
beginner's luck ....

 

[ian]

The CBOT is having problems - the live books aren't displaying the order book. Those of you who trade DMA make sure you have either a broker who does the Dow pit contract, or access to the S&P to hedge if the ECBOT falls over.

Seems ok with ib.

 

[Hook Shot]

Bit off topic but... whilst I'm waiting ...

British Energy - the nuclear power company is again having "issues after a storming run the last few weeks...... shares get slammed as market fear plus 3 mile island fear coalesce.......... down around 10%...

But we are getting nuke power so this is a buy the dip story for the patient....
The consultation phase was just for show ......... and I s'pose the key players took profit and released this "news" so they can load up again into the official announcement!

I'm starting to sound like atilla/fibonelli :cheesy:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still short DOW/Ndx......... nervously !

 

[foale]

Hi...back after a few months absence....to trade the Ftse Dax and Dow

 

[firewalker99]

tentative, whats that


1 slipper :?:

hehe, treading carefully

just exited at +20 :cheesy:
that should cover last week's average performance

 

[Hook Shot]

Just a thought

with a low initially at 400 that's 800 off the highs........ huge
Even normal 25% retrace which sees 600 does not assure us of a LOW...
Although I think the lads will want to take us higher into the FOMC meeting as Xymox says...

 

[firewalker99]

hehe, treading carefully

just exited at +20 :cheesy:
that should cover last week's average performance

and other half at 2160...
net +48

what was again that about "no more longs"?

 

[Hook Shot]

A system I follow has a signal at tomorrows open (sp/es). It's derived from published work (altucher), so I am happy to share. It's a v.simple mean reversion system and the idea is to capitalise on panic selling. The rules are:

Entry - if the long-term trend is up (I’m defining by a 24 month ma) and if the close is below the lower bol band (sd 1.5, ma length 20) then buy the next bar at open.

Exit - close trade if close higher than entry or after 10 days.

It's a 90% winner, based on over 180 trades over the last 20 years. The equity curve is attached.

It’s had 17 consecutive winners. Recent performance in 2007 has 8 trades netting over 100 sp points. dd though not too hot, avg over 07 recent trades is 16pts, but this high avg is mainly due to a huge dd for 1 trade in July/Aug (dd over 57 pts, but trade closed for a 14 pt profit).

Warning - the system was long on black Monday 87 & suffered huge loss.......and accounts for the huge blip at the start of the ec. Dyor etc…

Any chance of letting us know whether/when your key conditions have been met ? ..... It might be useful ....

 

[firewalker99]

short DOW 13550 fut?

 

[firewalker99]

short DOW 13550 fut?

exit at 13525... +25

think I'm done for today
good trading if you are just getting started today

 

[lurkerlurker]

FW, +73 on the day? Well done!

Any oilmen here? I'm looking for a good free source for best bid / offer on NYMEX Light crude. OpenTick don't have it.

 

[firewalker99]

FW, +73 on the day? Well done!

Any oilmen here? I'm looking for a good free source for best bid / offer on NYMEX Light crude. OpenTick don't have it.

+48 on the NQ equals 192 points on the YM... I'm considering myself lucky today that all the horses were released from the starting gates straight from the open

I wonder why are you thinking about trading oil?
I admire those who trade commodities or currencies though... It looks to me (probably because of my lack of experience) that indices have a better way chance of trending.

 

[Hook Shot]

+48 on the NQ equals 192 points on the YM... I'm considering myself lucky today that all the horses were released from the starting gates straight from the open

I wonder why are you thinking about trading oil?
I admire those who trade commodities or currencies though... It looks to me (probably because of my lack of experience) that indices have a better way chance of trending.

Oil trend hasn't been that bad either ....:cheesy:
But the next big move might be down .... imo
but what do i know ?

As for currencies ditto......... imo
Euro dollar will be mega short ... it's just pondering it's future right now ...

 

[lurkerlurker]

Not interested in actually trading the energies just yet - a real pros market, and you are up against well resourced firms with intelligence networks. Wouldn't mind a bit of tape / order book reading though.

When I am not trading, I watch prices and order books. It helps.

 

[black bear]

4 Hour plain

4 Hour plain

 

[black bear]

Charts 1 week & 15 min

Charts shows where we are at 17:30 approx.

just under week low = Blue lines

15 min @ top of hour range. = Purple Lines

could go :arrowd: :arrowu: :arrowl: I prefer :arrowu: but take your pick :!:

trade well all, gone for dinner, tempted to leave an order but bottle won"t allow it

 

[Hoggums]

Charts shows where we are at 17:30 approx.

just under week low = Blue lines

15 min @ top of hour range. = Purple Lines

could go :arrowd: :arrowu: :arrowl: I prefer :arrowu: but take your pick :!:

trade well all, gone for dinner, tempted to leave an order but bottle won"t allow it

The drop was bigger than I expected but we were way overdue for it. For the moment I think we're range bound. Maybe some movement before close tonight but I think there are a lot of people holding fire until the fed rate decision.

My personal favourite scenario is in line with db- a rise in the next 4-5 days and then another nasty drop not long after. These bearish scenarios - however rational/irrational usually take a couple of weeks to shake off. How low - I don't know but I see this as nothing but a correction so far.

However, I seriously think we are getting into a bit of a sideways market here over the next few weeks - large range but essentially going nowhere.

 

[Hook Shot]

Feels a bit dodgy this rally .... but it is what it is .......
keep eye on action ~ 600 (if we get there...)

 

[black bear]

Large range

The drop was bigger than I expected but we were way overdue for it. For the moment I think we're range bound. Maybe some movement before close tonight but I think there are a lot of people holding fire until the fed rate decision.

My personal favourite scenario is in line with db- a rise in the next 4-5 days and then another nasty drop not long after. These bearish scenarios - however rational/irrational usually take a couple of weeks to shake off. How low - I don't know but I see this as nothing but a correction so far.

However, I seriously think we are getting into a bit of a sideways market here over the next few weeks - large range but essentially going nowhere.

Hi Hoggums,

Large range off last weeks Low :?:

Just spotted spike up, will be tempted on the next pull back in 15 min charts, if we get one and see where it goes (close month)

Thanks for reminder regards NEWS , am prone to forget from time to time got me little print off of the calender stuck to me pc after the last errrr incident,