Dow 2007

[Insightm]

The Dow climbed above the strongest resistance (12560-2) Yesterday 3/1/2007 just as the FTSE did yesterday; and could mean more upside to come, and the move down seems like a pull back for new highs towards range of 12620- 45 by Friday 5/1/2007. However if unable to return back to the high (12580 )printed yesterday 3/1/2007 and take it out in the next few days. A resistance for the next day 2 days is the 12516-32 area and any hesitation in this area will spell a lot of trouble for the Dow. The earlier resistance (12560-2) broken to 12580 might still be a marginal new high.

 

[yacarob1]

morning all.. 2007 is going to be a bumper year on the Dow, and probably on the euro indices as well.

for your delectation, 2007 is a pre-election year.. over the past 120 years or so, pre-election years average around an 18% gain. now that is food for thought for anyone tempting to play the short side..

Yep, I'm looking for it to hit 14,000.

 

[pssonice]

looking for the next hit isnt worth anything

u ve to trade for the next hit

 

[Bez]

What the bears might be seeing......

Normally I'd be leaning towards this i,ii count as the delta hints at down ward pressure ( I'm leaving that aside due to the extended holiday period) but its still riding that rail and could still be now in a final "wave c" to that 12600 area as shown by the other 60min chart.....

Thanks Gaucho and Nelson btw

 

[tricks]

What the bears might be seeing......

Normally I'd be leaning towards this i,ii count as the delta hints at down ward pressure ( I'm leaving that aside due to the extended holiday period) but its still riding that rail and could still be now in a final "wave c" to that 12600 area as shown by the other 60min chart.....

Thanks Gaucho and Nelson btw [/QUOTE

Happy New Year to you Bez, and to all fellow traders,

I've got to admit, I'm not an Elliot Waver, (albeit aware of charting generally), but can I just say that, doesn't it all hinge on 'current huge liquidity' and the Nonfarm Payroll numbers tomorrow? Taking into account the general recent data release/s also. Notwithstanding manipulation of course, or am I being too simplistic?

cheers - Tricks

 

[Bez]

Hi tricks & happy New year also...

I'm the wrong one to ask on that type of stuff as I'm a one of those barmy people who believe news follows waves which in turn follow fibs......

 

[Bez]

What the bears might be seeing......Normally I'd be leaning towards this i,ii count as the delta hints at down ward pressure

Seems the delta was spot on

Update on that bear 60min chart...

 

[andycan]

Seems the delta was spot on

Update on that bear 60min chart...

there is basic geometry for a reversal in es

 

[Bez]

Any chance of a Chart Andy :?:

Are you looking at the 24.50 ( 25.25 globex) Measured Move :?:

Happy New Year btw

 

[andycan]

es

not trading es at the moment but it was a quick observation

Happy New Year to you to

 

[vergis92]

Another year, another move higher? Or will it be lower?

I think they will have a good reason to move to all time highs,
as stocks that are highly correlated to the indices such as (mer) are well below their
intrisic value and will keep rising in the next few years

for the very short term, the daily trends are down, you can expect another 150 to 200 points
decline on the dow in comming week.

 

[Hook Shot]

I think they will have a good reason to move to all time highs,
as stocks that are highly correlated to the indices such as (mer) are well below their
intrisic value and will keep rising in the next few years

for the very short term, the daily trends are down, you can expect another 150 to 200 points
decline on the dow in comming week.

Interesting comment about Merrill's I'll put it on my Short Watch......... we've been warned a slap is coming best to be prepared.... the Fidelity guy announced his short position almost a month ago..... we're on countdown!!

 

[vergis92]

Interesting comment about Merrill's I'll put it on my Short Watch......... we've been warned a slap is coming best to be prepared.... the Fidelity guy announced his short position almost a month ago..... we're on countdown!!

The markets technical support is broken and will most likely make a correction,
and (mer) will follow suit, (note the bearish RSI divergence on the pic)

if a substancial rally unfolds it could be right after a bottom made between now and around March,

I see mer has been a good investment in the last few years, I rememeber lows of $55
2 years ago, now it's $90 and has a value of $320

so every big drop on the weekly chart is a buying opportunity for such stocks.
valuation is not guaranty of an immediate rally but it's a guaranty of not buying bubbles
like stock brokers often push us to do, bubbles never recover after severe declines
they just go down and down till they get delisted from the exchange,
markets don't always go up in the longterm, indices do

 

[NASFUT]

This year i will be applying an assortment of techniques to the Dow Jones.

Firstly the technique of never holding over night. Don't ask why, it just seems like a good thing to do.

Secondly i will be scalping, just nipping in and out of the Dow, like you do. Again, don't ask me why.

Third, i will be using a spread betting firm. i feel i can over come the 6 point spread with my 'nipping' method.

Finally, the method i will be using is a secret formula. Fibs are in there, MAs, candles and a few others that i have read about in books.

I will also be drawing lines all over my charts, as i am doing this my tongue will be sticking out, it does this when i am concentrating, see.

I will keep a journal and post my trades for close scrutiny.

Good trading all.

 

[andycan]

"The National Income and Product Accounts for the third quarter incorporated an estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that gross output of new motor vehicles increased at a rapid pace in the third quarter, a sharp contrast to a drop in the IP index for motor vehicles (including parts production) for that same period. Much of that difference could be attributed to the BEA's method of in ferring motor vehicle output from separate data on sales, net international trade, and changes in inventories rather than measuring output directly using data on production. In addition, a large drop in the producer price index for light trucks in the third quarter resulted in a jump in the BEA's implied unit values of light trucks in inventory. In the staff's view, these measurement issues likely caused an overstatement of the rate of increase in real GDP in the third quarter, and the gradual unwinding of those effects would probably lead to an understatement of real GDP growth over the next several quarters".


... after years of trying to work out the markets,a very esteemed member,namely racer,has helped me to conclude that the only way to consistently trade,even intra-day scalping,is through the integration of leading economic reports with moving average crossovers confirmimg these findings.my aim for 2007 is , thru extensive research ,to devise a system,ma crossover based,to allow me to scalp for a target of 5 ticks on the dow,using a 10 pip stop.

i am also adding to this a very thorough investigation of jack herseys work,who is undoubtedly the master of price and volume analysis.other notable exponents of this craft also who should be studied include tom williams and our very own db phoenix.an example of jacks 30 year quest being,that large volume equals a consensus of opinion.ie all buyers etc and low volume ,a mix of buyers and sellers.another gem i have picked up from the master,is,volume controls the pace of price.i would advise anyone who doesn't know his work to wander over to ET.

a few other adjustments id like to share with you .i have concluded my main weakness was, i didnt have a trading plan.this is being rectified as we speak.it is quite possible a journal will follow.i also have realised that all this psychology stuff is garbage,dont listen to socrates,he is an old windbag.my new mantra is "just do it",even if i dont know what im doin.the pursuit of knowledge is very tiring.in fact i believe it can get in the way.in future im just gonna trust what the chart shows me.an up bar means an up market,simple isnt it.my main goal for this year is the focus of the $,goodbye knowledge ,its been nice,i have found my paradise,a nd its $$$$s.

I find the above report also extremely significant in my new path.i hope you do to.

i will come be back with the results of my studies in 2008.

good luck to you but the fundamentals by most accounts is smoke and mirrors im not an economist but i know when they are pulling my tail
charts dont lie price and volume are the essence for trading i have not studied any of the chaps you mentioned simply becasue i received my own grounding in trading and then tested what i learned because i simply chose not to believe what im told and in that persuit i found out things of my own accord therefore what i learned is my own.
the psychology is testing at best but i chose not to make it an issue and therefore its not to others it appears to be a quest if thats what they want i say good luck to them too

regards

 

[Racer]

... after years of trying to work out the markets,a very esteemed member,namely racer,has helped me to conclude that the only way to consistently trade,even intra-day scalping,is through the integration of leading economic reports with moving average crossovers confirmimg these findings.my aim for 2007 is , thru extensive research ,to devise a system,ma crossover based,to allow me to scalp for a target of 5 ticks on the dow,using a 10 pip stop.

my avatar will have no legs left after this

 

[vergis92]

"The National Income and Product Accounts for the third quarter incorporated an estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that gross output of new motor vehicles increased at a rapid pace in the third quarter, a sharp contrast to a drop in the IP index for motor vehicles (including parts production) for that same period. Much of that difference could be attributed to the BEA's method of in ferring motor vehicle output from separate data on sales, net international trade, and changes in inventories rather than measuring output directly using data on production. In addition, a large drop in the producer price index for light trucks in the third quarter resulted in a jump in the BEA's implied unit values of light trucks in inventory. In the staff's view, these measurement issues likely caused an overstatement of the rate of increase in real GDP in the third quarter, and the gradual unwinding of those effects would probably lead to an understatement of real GDP growth over the next several quarters".


... after years of trying to work out the markets,a very esteemed member,namely racer,has helped me to conclude that the only way to consistently trade,even intra-day scalping,is through the integration of leading economic reports with moving average crossovers confirmimg these findings.my aim for 2007 is , thru extensive research ,to devise a system,ma crossover based,to allow me to scalp for a target of 5 ticks on the dow,using a 10 pip stop.




As regards stock indices, economic reports can only cause volatile days, they cannot
predict price movement, the market can drop on good news or rally on bad news,

The US markets fell on Friday on what was a much better than expected report,
though it did cause some brief rally of a few minutes, what this is telling me is that
there will be more decline

 

[smbtnt]

"


to allow me to scalp for a target of 5 ticks on the dow,using a 10 pip stop.

.

ROFLMAO! You got to be kidding me.....

 

[laptop1]

"
after years of trying to work out the markets,a very esteemed member,namely racer,has helped me to conclude that the only way to consistently trade,even intra-day scalping,is through the integration of leading economic reports with moving average crossovers confirmimg these findings.my aim for 2007 is , thru extensive research ,to devise a system,ma crossover based,to allow me to scalp for a target of 5 ticks on the dow,using a 10 pip stop.
.

I'm 100% sure you had more post, where have they all gone?????

Anyway, using a MA Cross for 5 points will not work its not enough.

You should work on trend days and try to catch them.

5 point targets are no good. in my opinion, 5 points is noise.

The Dow will have to move 2 points to cover cost, if you are trading at market. Remember you wont have the luxury of buying the bid or selling the offer looking for 5 points target.

It looks like you gone back to basics from what you been saying in the past, but these posts are gone. strange um??

 

[stellarog]

This year i will be applying an assortment of techniques to the Dow Jones.

Firstly the technique of never holding over night. Don't ask why, it just seems like a good thing to do.

Secondly i will be scalping, just nipping in and out of the Dow, like you do. Again, don't ask me why.

Third, i will be using a spread betting firm. i feel i can over come the 6 point spread with my 'nipping' method.

Finally, the method i will be using is a secret formula. Fibs are in there, MAs, candles and a few others that i have read about in books.

I will also be drawing lines all over my charts, as i am doing this my tongue will be sticking out, it does this when i am concentrating, see.

I will keep a journal and post my trades for close scrutiny.

Good trading all.

:cheesy: :cheesy: