macbonzo
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Looking at where we are now, it seems that the Nas has caught up with the Dow and S&P. The S&P finished yesterday, pretty much at the top of its range (13011.5), but the Dow was lagging a bit by comparison.
It seems to me that the market has come to the conclusion that there will only be one more rate rise in May. That, is, in my opinion arguable. What is not in question, is that we have very high oil prices ($67.64) and are looking ahead to the driving season. Now I know that many of you may think that the market is now used to persistently high oil prices, but I would venture that it only seems that way. Last week Nymex touched $67.90, then sold off to low $65s. Today we are pretty close to the $68 again. I believe it is at this level that the equity market takes notice.
Today could be a bit of a nothing session, with Non Farms tomorrow. I know that Snow said the Non Farms will be a good number (how the hell does he know), but again I would keep an eye on Crude. For me, today, I will be looking at the short side.
It seems to me that the market has come to the conclusion that there will only be one more rate rise in May. That, is, in my opinion arguable. What is not in question, is that we have very high oil prices ($67.64) and are looking ahead to the driving season. Now I know that many of you may think that the market is now used to persistently high oil prices, but I would venture that it only seems that way. Last week Nymex touched $67.90, then sold off to low $65s. Today we are pretty close to the $68 again. I believe it is at this level that the equity market takes notice.
Today could be a bit of a nothing session, with Non Farms tomorrow. I know that Snow said the Non Farms will be a good number (how the hell does he know), but again I would keep an eye on Crude. For me, today, I will be looking at the short side.
solentsurfer
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Well, I hoping it does more than test it, a good old stomp over it would suit me
macbonzo
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We will see what this afternoon brings. With the 10 year Treasury yield at 4.90% and Crude at $68 it will be hard for this market to progress much. The question is, will the selling hasten going into the afternoon? The financials are down quite a bit but techs remain fairly strong.
With so much attention being paid to tomorrow's Non Farms, I think todays action maybe a little muted.
I have to say, I would have expected to see more selling.
With so much attention being paid to tomorrow's Non Farms, I think todays action maybe a little muted.
I have to say, I would have expected to see more selling.
macbonzo
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leovirgo said:
Well seems to be a great call.
Are there any sellers out there at all? Over the last hour this market has moved up as if there are no sellers. I was looking at a short but decided against it. I have the impression, that everyone (Hedge funds etc) seem to be on the "right" side of the market.
Racer
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U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by a better-than-expected 211,000 in March while the jobless rate fell back to 4.7% from 4.8%.
The Federal Reserve will see one more jobs report before the next meeting on May 10. The Fed has said it is concerned that inflation could spike as the economy runs out of unused labor.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...793-4202-8E66-D5C0DCE41C21}&siteid=mktw&dist=
The Federal Reserve will see one more jobs report before the next meeting on May 10. The Fed has said it is concerned that inflation could spike as the economy runs out of unused labor.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...793-4202-8E66-D5C0DCE41C21}&siteid=mktw&dist=
Very volatile market. Employment figures apparently already factored into the price by quite a few people.
Just missed the whipsaw - market turning just before it would have triggered my April long at 11295.
Am now short since it then dropped down and triggered my April Sell at 11195 :cheesy:
Running a tight stop here since this could still bounce back during or after lunch !
Just missed the whipsaw - market turning just before it would have triggered my April long at 11295.
Am now short since it then dropped down and triggered my April Sell at 11195 :cheesy:
Running a tight stop here since this could still bounce back during or after lunch !
