Dow 2006

[macbonzo]

Don't think that you can rely on any trendlines or Support/Resistence levels until we have cleared the hurdle of Bernankes comments at the end of tomorrows Fed meeting.

We could be on the cusp of a major correction here (potentially down) but any hint of rate hikes coming to an end after tomorrow could create a market frenzy and send the Dow up 300/400 pts this week for a strong short term rally.

Yes, I think you are right about being very cautious about everything until the market has digested the Committee's statement. The volatility around the statement is enough to keep me out the market and wait until the next day.

At the last meeting, the statement said:

Further policy firming "may" be needed given "possible" increases in resource utilisation

Standing back and looking at the markets. I am pretty impressed that neither Nymex crude ($65.10)pb nor the yield on $TNX (4.73%) have caused much profit taking over the last 9 sessions. I think we are more likely to go up than down in the short term.

 

[leovirgo]

FTSE has tumbled for two consecutive days. The decline was about 100 points. I would be very surprised if DOW rallied to a new high. Having said that the markets have surprised me many times before. btw, I am also watching it outside the ring.

 

[FetteredChinos]

someone know something the rest of us dont know? Dow gone parabolic in the last 10 mins..

 

[leovirgo]

someone know something the rest of us dont know? Dow gone parabolic in the last 10 mins..

A trip to trigger stops at the high! or his crystal ball says BUY

 

[jonpo]

maybe the market is flushing out all shorts in preparation for a decline

 

[macbonzo]

someone know something the rest of us dont know? Dow gone parabolic in the last 10 mins..

Looks like some position taking prior to the announcement. I have noticed these spurts in volume at lunchtime over the last couple of weeks.

NYMEX near $66. Not sure why.

 

[htp80]

Looks like some position taking prior to the announcement. I have noticed these spurts in volume at lunchtime over the last couple of weeks.

NYMEX near $66. Not sure why.

Political tensions and concern over gasoline prices are driving the oil

 

[macbonzo]

Certainly, one major refinery is out of service and there was a pretty big draw on crude in last week's EIA report, but really there are few political tensions at the moment. The Nigerian situation is being resolved, there isn't any fear of Iran withdrawing supplies and Mexico seems fine. Add to that that the winter has been relatively mild.

I don't trade oil, but at this price, I would be going short with a stop at $68

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmm, have just had a buy signal... might go in with a tiny stake until after the mess at 2015..

hold onto your hats chaps..

 

[jonpo]

take it the rate decision wasn't too good for stocks then

 

[FetteredChinos]

scratched that long and now fairly heavily short..

 

[DepthTangent]

I still fancy a pop at the all time high before the bears get their cake, buying into the support of the fed rate is for the risk takers, but it maybe easy money. Still fancy the bears to get on top in May after a pop at the high.Tommorow will be a very interesting day, infact its a very interesting week !

 

[macbonzo]

Whatever your view on the market, at least we got a shakeout and broke out of the 10220 - 10335 range that we had been stuck in for the last 9 sessions.

What makes me laugh about the whole FOMC statement thing, is, what exactly was the market expecting? It was hardly going to be "well, we see few inflationary pressures in the economy and this will be our last rate hike"

It could have been the same statement and the market could have rallied 90 points. The point is, it is a total guess.

 

[htp80]

Certainly, one major refinery is out of service and there was a pretty big draw on crude in last week's EIA report, but really there are few political tensions at the moment. The Nigerian situation is being resolved, there isn't any fear of Iran withdrawing supplies and Mexico seems fine. Add to that that the winter has been relatively mild.

I don't trade oil, but at this price, I would be going short with a stop at $68

Mexico and Iran are fairly stable - if thats the right word - The Nigerian situation is still bubbling away though - there wasn't the expected drop in Crude once the hostages was released highlighting how unsecure that situation is. But yes it would take something dramatic to push the price north towards the $68 level so short would be a tempting position.

The Dow has taken a bit of a hit 51 points. There were very few surprises in Bernankes speach. I'll look at buying into the Dow tomorrow once the it's digested the days activity.

 

[macbonzo]

htp80,

I may just join you.

 

[FetteredChinos]

gonna close at the low sub 11,100... bear flag pattern confirmed

 

[mombasa]

So, guess who was long at 11,268 on the spike up?

Just kidding, went short there but chickened out 30 min before the statement

Short from 11,191 with stops at breakeven.

 

[Racer]

*Yawn* is it time to wake up the bears yet?

 

[roguetrader]

*Yawn* is it time to wake up the bears yet?

Time they stretched their legs, at least

 

[frugi]

Due to her love of racing down precipitous slopes, the lady penguin responded vehemently in the affirmative.