Dow 2006

[mark twain uk]

macbonzo,

be careful, after being short for a while and being proven wrong on a number of occasions, there is a serious risk of finally turn into a bull just as the market is turning

 

[macbonzo]

macbonzo,

be careful, after being short for a while and being proven wrong on a number of occasions, there is a serious risk of finally turn into a bull just as the market is turning

You must remember that I trade on a very short timescale. More or less momentum based. It is rare for me to take more than 2.5 points on the S&P, but I do trade quite a large number of contracts. My favourite trade is the 3.05 reversal. It is remarkable how predictable it is. I have a long term view but I don't trade on a long term scale.

This has allowed me to get in and out of 30 short trades over the last 2 weeks and still be slightly up.

I'm neither a bull nor a bear, just someone who watches price and volume.

 

[macbonzo]

NYMEX Crude now $63.50.

 

[macbonzo]

Worth pointing out, that even with NYMEX crude at nearly $64 pb, the market is shrugging it off. Thus far only a little over 1bn shares traded on NYSE

 

[leovirgo]

The market participants may be watching i) FOMC and ii) Q1 results. My anticipation is that there wouldn't be any major trend change until then. But any continuation/reversal formations should be closely monitored.

0.25% rate hike may have been discounted but anything can happen, right?

 

[easytimes]

Discounted? The market hasn't discounted a single rate hike in the past two years - it has been rising with the hikes. The only reason for this is that the market have constantly said that hikes will be coming to a close soon every single time they raise them.

http://money.cnn.com/.element/img/1...rts_tabs/1dow_chart.gif?nocache=1143151468359

 

[leovirgo]

Discounted? The market hasn't discounted a single rate hike in the past two years - it has been rising with the hikes. The only reason for this is that the market have constantly said that hikes will be coming to a close soon every single time they raise them.

http://money.cnn.com/.element/img/1...rts_tabs/1dow_chart.gif?nocache=1143151468359

easytimes, discounted here means the market participants might have prepared themselves for a possible rate hike( by way of adjusting their portfolio structures or whatever means they consider appropriate). It does not mean the market has already fallen. cheers..

 

[leovirgo]

U.S. Feb. New Home Sales Fall 10.5%, Most Since 1997

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of new homes in the U.S. had the biggest drop in almost nine years in February and the number of properties on the market rose, evidence the housing market is cooling after a five-year boom.

...U.S. orders for durable goods rose for the fourth time in five months in February as bookings for commercial aircraft increased, the Commerce Department said today in a separate report. Excluding transportation, orders unexpectedly fell.

...Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose 5.2 percent last month to an annual rate of 6.91 million, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday. Existing home sales, which account for about 85 percent of the market, reflected the closing of contracts signed in January, when record-warm temperatures brought out more buyers. New home sales, which account for the remaining 15 percent, are counted when a contract is signed.

 

[Racer]

Oil up, housing slowing, orders fell, ah better buy more shares in that case :cheesy:

 

[DepthTangent]

The DOW will get close to its high in the first couple of days trading next week, however it will be stopped in its tracks due to "traders resistance" and fundamental oil price. Its clear the price of oil is now unsustainable for an expanding industrial sector I predict next week we will see the commencement of a new trend to the downside that will last quite some time me fellow trading guru's !

 

[kriesau]

Iranian Nuclear Proble Escalates

How far will Israel let them go before addressing this issue ?

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran25mar25,0,2988505.story?track=tothtml

 

[DepthTangent]

Actually, my estimates maybe innacurate. The bear market may not commence until the first week in May.

 

[SOCRATES]

Actually, my estimates maybe innacurate. The bear market may not commence until the first week in May.

Then it would be prudent to note that the first week in May might be a wobbly one ?

I have already marked it on my calendar. Let us see what happens, and await developments with interest.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Looks like the US change their clocks 2end of April, so the market hours will be 3:30pm to 10pm for UK traders next week.

 

[Pat494]

By my reckoning the Dow dropped just 1 point last week, from the Opening Monday to Friday's Close - that's OSCILLATING by anyones criteria. The calm before the storm ??

 

[kriesau]

Assuming that the Fed raises rates another 25 basis points on Tuesday (99% likely) then the US base rate at 4.75% will be higher than the UK base rate for the first time in more than 7 years. It will also mean that the US base rate is double the EU rate. This must strengthen the US$ in the short term as hot cash moves to take advantage of the better return on short term deposit.
It will also increase market liquidity even further and will almost certainly accelerate the increase in the US Balance of Trade deficit.

Recipe for a volatile market !

 

[mark twain uk]

We had four rallies this year, and after each of the first three we had a correction.

Rally 1: 370 points Correction 1: 406 points

Rally 2: 329 points Correction 2: 243 points

Rally 3: 428 points Correction 3: 276 points

Rally 4: 454 points Correction 4: ???

 

[Pat494]

My 50 SMA of 1/2 hr intraday is definately curling over so cheer up bears, should drop nicely imho

 

[mombasa]

short at 11,233 after trendline break - at least i hope its trendline break.

 

[kriesau]

short at 11,233 after trendline break - at least i hope its trendline break.

Don't think that you can rely on any trendlines or Support/Resistence levels until we have cleared the hurdle of Bernankes comments at the end of tomorrows Fed meeting.

We could be on the cusp of a major correction here (potentially down) but any hint of rate hikes coming to an end after tomorrow could create a market frenzy and send the Dow up 300/400 pts this week for a strong short term rally.