Dow 2006

today's action may depend on Producer Price data to be released at 1:30pm GMT, presumably this will impact the view on US interest rate movements etc.

Other factors could be Dell's disappointing results/forecasts and the continuing rise in Oil prices. Given that Monday is a US holiday, will traders want to hold over the long weekend?

Looks like a slow day otherwise though the Dow futures are holding up remarkably well given the late surge last night.

P.S. DC thx for the info on brokers, I'll look into them when I unwind my positions.
 
chimpmagnet said:
today's action may depend on Producer Price data to be released at 1:30pm GMT, presumably this will impact the view on US interest rate movements etc.

Other factors could be Dell's disappointing results/forecasts and the continuing rise in Oil prices. Given that Monday is a US holiday, will traders want to hold over the long weekend?

Looks like a slow day otherwise though the Dow futures are holding up remarkably well given the late surge last night.

P.S. DC thx for the info on brokers, I'll look into them when I unwind my positions.


Hi There,

The ppi Figure for mom is double than expected but market seems to holding on well.
 
SHOPFRONT said:
Hi There,

The ppi Figure for mom is double than expected but market seems to holding on well.

Apparently the more closely watched figure is the Consumer Prices Index to be released next Weds. Still surprised at the market's strength given the bout of "bad" news overnight and today.
 
morning all...

been doing some thinking about cycles again last night...

those of you who believe in this sort of thing may be aware of the importance of major lows spiralling out as cycles..in terms of minutes, days, weeks, months, years etc..

a major low for the Dow occurred just after the 1929 crash at 40....

therefore we should be looking at tops/bottoms every 40 hours, days, weeks etc..

the last major low was in October 2002,

would anyone like to hazard a guess how many months ago that was?

whabbam, 40...

as a result, i am looking for a fairly long term top this month, a very weak summer, then a small attempt at a rally towards the end of the year...

whether we break through the all-time high before we turn south is open to conjecture, but a narrow squeak at a double-top does seem possible.

FC
 
fc,

I'm with you there about some down correction being on the cards, the fundamentals are not good, both the US government and its people have borrowed too much, the trade balance is awful, the oil is expensive, something's got to give, sooner or later.
 
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If it closes below 11105, it isn't expected to go higher than 11130 on Tuesday. A weak closing may bring relatively weaker prices in the coming days.
 
Closed at 11115+. It is still a negative close but the close stands at 69% of today's range- not an ideal closing for weaker days ahead. I would be happy with low around 1000s.
 
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) - Leading hedge funds, including D.E. Shaw & Co., Eton Park Capital Management and Och-Ziff Capital Management, may be dented by PXRE Group's descent into crisis. The three hedge funds were the top investors in the reinsurer at the end of 2005, owning more than 22% of the company's shares, according Thomson Financial data. Eton Park's stake remained at almost 5.5 million shares, according to a Feb. 14 Securities and Exchange Commission filing. SEC filings this month by D.E. Shaw and Och-Ziff also show their stakes remained at 5.8 million shares and 4.5 million shares respectively.

PXRE (PXT) shares lost about two-thirds of their value on Friday after the reinsurer almost doubled its loss estimate from last year's record hurricane season and lost key financial-strength and credit ratings from A.M. Best, an influential industry rating agency. The company also said it hired Lazard to explore strategic alternatives. PXRE shares slumped 65% to $4.19 during afternoon trading on Friday. Almost 27 million shares changed hands, more than 60 times the average daily volume. D.E. Shaw, Eton Park and Och-Ziff are among the largest and most respected hedge funds in the business.

D.E. Shaw, founded in 1988 by Stanford University Ph.D. David Shaw, has about $19 billion in assets and focuses on quantitative trading and opportunities where technology and finance meet. Eton Park, run by former Goldman Sachs (GS) trading star Eric Mindich, became one of the largest hedge fund startups in history when the firm raised billions in 2004. Och-Ziff, which oversees more than $10 billion, was founded in 1994 by Daniel Och. Och worked at Goldman Sachs's risk-arbitrage group in the 1980's alongside other future hedge-fund leaders such as Richard Perry of Perry Capital, Thomas Steyer of Farallon Capital Management, and Eddie Lampert of ESL Investments. Och declined to comment and Eton Park and D.E. Shaw weren't immediately available for comment.

Hedge funds trade frequently and also, as their name suggests, use a wide variety of investing techniques to protect - or hedge - themselves against losses. That means the PXRE stakes held by D.E. Shaw, Eton Park and Och-Ziff may not have resulted in direct losses for those firms. Still, the holdings illustrate the risks some hedge funds have taken on by entering the reinsurance business recently. Beyond investing in the equity and debt of reinsurers, some hedge funds have invested in catastrophe bonds that are triggered in the event of huge disasters. Others, such as Citadel, have even started their own reinsurance companies.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
 
leovirgo said:
Closed at 11115+. It is still a negative close but the close stands at 69% of today's range- not an ideal closing for weaker days ahead. I would be happy with low around 1000s.

Aren't you being a bit pessimistic Leo at the Dow at 1000 lol
Or do you mean 10,000 ?
Or could it be 11,000 ??
Why not split the difference at 10,500 ?
( only kidding I expect you really meant 12,000 ? )
:cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:
 
"But, when reading about the bull and bear market periods of the past, another relationship became obvious. That being, the duration of the bear market in relationship to the preceding bull market. In researching this, Tim quickly realized that the bear market periods, as defined by these great Dow theorists, were roughly one-third the duration of the preceding bull market. But what about the Great bull and bear market periods?

Let’s take a look. The 1921 to 1929 bull market was 8 years in duration with the bear market that followed running 3 years from 1929 to 1932. Therefore, the bear market duration was 37.5% of the preceding bull market. The 1942 to 1966 bull market was a 24 year affair with the 1966 to 1974 bear market running 8 years in duration. So, this bear market lasted 33.3% of the duration of preceding bull market. As stated above, the last great bull market ran from the 1974 low into the 2000 top for a duration of approximately 26 years. So, 33.3% of the previous 26 year Bull market would mean that this bear market would last some 8 ½ years. 37.5% of the duration of this last great bull market would mean that it would last approximately 10 years. So, in spite of the fact that the bull market periods have grown in duration, the bull/bear market relationships have held constant. Therefore, from a historical perspective of true Dow Theory bull and bear market relationships, the 2002 low was NOT the bear market low."

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/2006/0217.html
 
Pat494 said:
Aren't you being a bit pessimistic Leo at the Dow at 1000 lol
Or do you mean 10,000 ?
Or could it be 11,000 ??
Why not split the difference at 10,500 ?
( only kidding I expect you really meant 12,000 ? )
:cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

lol..
I meant 11000. I just wanted to add 50 to DC's 950 target. It would be nice if it touched base at 11000 and then move on to your 12000???
:cheesy:
 
And if Bernanke's take on the economy is echoed in the Fed's meeting minutes, that could be enough to keep this rally going for at least another week. But if not, Wall Street will be quick to collect profits and unload risky stocks.(AP)

Watching FOMC minutes on Tuesday 2pm.

Earnings : HD and WMT to announce earnings before market open.
 
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