Dow 2006

[macbonzo]

short from 1272, stop loss at 1282,, looking to lower it if the trade goes in my favour, target 1240-45 area

I guess that you are working on a weekly/monthly outlook. My timeframe is a bit shorter (daily) but, I think I would look to be long above 1272. Yesterday's move came on huge volume, so I would be a bit cautious about being to ambitious.

Good luck

 

[mark twain uk]

macb,

you're right, I placed the trade with a view to keep if open for few days on the assumption that any break above 1276 will only be a short one, will not spike too high, and will be followed by a retest of the 1240-45 area. I am not able to watch the screen all the time, so my stop losses and targets are more generous than those used in day trading

 

[mark twain uk]

plus it's only a small short, nothing too exciting

 

[Slim Sladey]

Thoughts please,

Afternoon all,

I know this isn't exactly a US trade but is related.... kind of.

In a nutshell i'm long on the Nikkei which i averaged in on from mid Dec, and am currently up around 960 points on my average position ! This is easily the best trade i have made in my short (6 months) trading career.

My question is this let it run even more, or take the money :?:

My current thinking is,

1. Taking the cash now will more than double my account balance, the futures seem to be rising in line with the DJIA and are up around another 130 points today, i'm not sure if the Nikkei will carry this overnight, so i could take the cash and look to get back in later?

2. But then again, most commentators continue to talk positively on the Nikkei. Should i wait and hope for 17,000ish? I was also long on the Nikkei back in October for a slightly higher stake and took 257 points as this gave me a nice cash pot which made my account look good. Had i left the trade open i would be up a further 3000+ points, so i'm trying to teach myself to take what the market will give me rather than what makes my account look good.

Any thoughts would be useful, and just to be sure i know that who i listen to, what i read, and what i do with my trades is ultimately my choice and my responsibility, i'd just like others to share their experience as this is the first real time i've had such a huge gain in front of me.

Good luck to everyone on the US indices today. Im unsure on the Dow at the moment given its volatility and am still learning, so am just watching for now. I have never traded the S&P or Nasdaq but intend to in the future.

 

[Pat494]

Slim S
Well done with the Nikkei. Take care averaging. Just about everyone who has tried it regularly have done well and then whammo suddenly come horribly unstuck ( me included ).
But sounds like you may be good enough to be telling though - not asking ??

 

[frugi]

Well done.

If the position has doubled your account you could sell (at least) half of it and enjoy the luxury of a free ride on the rest, perhaps trailing your stop a certain percentage below the price (move it up if the daily close is up otherwise leave it where it is) in order to protect the remander of your position against a sudden fall.

Obviously the dilemma here is how tight to trail - too tight and you may be shaken out before further upside; too loose and you are vulnerable to losing a lot of your gain. However given you have had a lovely run already I'd be tempted to scale out then use a loose one on the rest. All imho.

PS I wouldn't "wait and hope" - always have a plan that is prepared for every outcome.

 

[macbonzo]

Afternoon all,

I know this isn't exactly a US trade but is related.... kind of.

In a nutshell i'm long on the Nikkei which i averaged in on from mid Dec, and am currently up around 960 points on my average position ! This is easily the best trade i have made in my short (6 months) trading career.

My question is this let it run even more, or take the money :?:

My current thinking is,

1. Taking the cash now will more than double my account balance, the futures seem to be rising in line with the DJIA and are up around another 130 points today, i'm not sure if the Nikkei will carry this overnight, so i could take the cash and look to get back in later?

2. But then again, most commentators continue to talk positively on the Nikkei. Should i wait and hope for 17,000ish? I was also long on the Nikkei back in October for a slightly higher stake and took 257 points as this gave me a nice cash pot which made my account look good. Had i left the trade open i would be up a further 3000+ points, so i'm trying to teach myself to take what the market will give me rather than what makes my account look good.

Any thoughts would be useful, and just to be sure i know that who i listen to, what i read, and what i do with my trades is ultimately my choice and my responsibility, i'd just like others to share their experience as this is the first real time i've had such a huge gain in front of me.

Good luck to everyone on the US indices today. Im unsure on the Dow at the moment given its volatility and am still learning, so am just watching for now. I have never traded the S&P or Nasdaq but intend to in the future.

Excellent trade. Well done.

I would take the profits.

In many respects there is never a good sell. Either the market goes against you or you sell and the market keeps going up. Always sell into strength.

Take the money, relax, and plan your next trade.

The trade should give you lots of confidence.

 

[mark twain uk]

I would take the money and then take a few days off. It's not often that you double your trading pot, in fact, it is so rare as to be treasured. You must have been overexposed, so bank the profits before it goes against you. And even if it goes even higher, you still double your trading pot.

 

[leovirgo]

Yesterday's move came on huge volume, so I would be a bit cautious about being to ambitious.

Any wisdom on DOW behavior today? can't seem to go further than 10890. Any possibility that it will end in negative territory?

 

[kriesau]

Afternoon all,

I know this isn't exactly a US trade but is related.... kind of.

In a nutshell i'm long on the Nikkei which i averaged in on from mid Dec, and am currently up around 960 points on my average position ! This is easily the best trade i have made in my short (6 months) trading career.

My question is this let it run even more, or take the money :?:

My current thinking is,

1. Taking the cash now will more than double my account balance, the futures seem to be rising in line with the DJIA and are up around another 130 points today, i'm not sure if the Nikkei will carry this overnight, so i could take the cash and look to get back in later?

2. But then again, most commentators continue to talk positively on the Nikkei. Should i wait and hope for 17,000ish? I was also long on the Nikkei back in October for a slightly higher stake and took 257 points as this gave me a nice cash pot which made my account look good. Had i left the trade open i would be up a further 3000+ points, so i'm trying to teach myself to take what the market will give me rather than what makes my account look good.

Any thoughts would be useful, and just to be sure i know that who i listen to, what i read, and what i do with my trades is ultimately my choice and my responsibility, i'd just like others to share their experience as this is the first real time i've had such a huge gain in front of me.

Good luck to everyone on the US indices today. Im unsure on the Dow at the moment given its volatility and am still learning, so am just watching for now. I have never traded the S&P or Nasdaq but intend to in the future.

I agree with Frugi. However, you need to find a trading style that you are comfortable with and determine whether your trading objective is short term or longer term. Everyone is different so it is important that you determine your own priorities.

If I was 960pts up on the Nikkei now then I would take half of my profit and run the other half with a 200pt stop with the objective of going for 17000. That would be my strategy - you must determine yours.

Good luck

 

[Orion]

Why not start a new Nikkei thread?

 

[Slapshot]

Slim,

All good points made by Frugi,Mac & Kriesau and as the latter says you must find your own style and not worry on what might happen or what you may or may not miss out on.

I'm also long on the Nikkei and have been since 14045 with my stop trailing at 16100. The market has been known to move 300+ points at times which is why I trade it for the longer term following the trend slowly moving my stop allowing retracements to happen and the trend to pick back up again.

Everyone has their own style but it's not worth kicking yourself over missing out on a move, at some point there will be another one to jump on. Congratulate yourself on your success and keep yourelf prepared for the next time.

Well done!

 

[FetteredChinos]

what made you get into the Nikkei trade? are those conditions still the case?

if so, then hold the trade, and trail with a tight-ish stop. (250-300pts)

if not, then what are you still doing in the trade, even though it is 960pts to the good?

(nice trade though...wish i had more of them.... )

FC

 

[kriesau]

short from 1272, stop loss at 1282,, looking to lower it if the trade goes in my favour, target 1240-45 area

CHARLIE SAID THIS MORNING: :cheesy:

Is it a subtle clue that yesterdays intraday chart action is a micro version of the Oct. - Nov. action that I ascribed to the PPT? That would suggest that perhaps they are back for a debut, which would be bullish. It would give me hope that perhaps we at least would move to the top of Alan's Alley by the time that he departs, although Ben might want to stretch it out some, for obvious reasons, which would be advantageous to both. But. the longer it takes until we break through the ceiling of Alan's Alley, and begin a true bull run, however subdued the slope, the more I believe we risk a very serious pullback.

 

[dc2000]

Any one fancy a short tomorrow from 10951 and 1280.6 :?:

 

[Racer]

If it goes there no

 

[dc2000]

Oh it will go there

and I forgot the FTSE at 5749 but not looking to short that yet

 

[Slim Sladey]

Been delayed and just got back in to see all the responses, so thanks to Pat494, Frugi, Macbonzo, Mark Twain, Kriesau, Slapshot and FC for your comments .

Just to let you know if your interested, since i didnt get in until 9:30 and SB Nikkei closes at 9 i'll be letting it run overnight :cheesy: , but while i was out i was thinking about doing this anyway and am comfortable with it.

Overall ive decided to let it run as thanks to FC reminding me, i think the conditions for why i got in are still right. Trading style is normally hold for a few days. I've tried intra day with some small degree of success but i'm not really good or lucky enough to pick intra day highs lows at the mo. Also i have this thing called 'work' i have to do during the day , very annoying, so don't have the time to sit and watch constantly.

I will let run, likely for at least a couple more days, continuing with my trailing stop and a buffer, but will also keep an eye out to scale out (higher placed longs first) should things change.

Thanks again, hope we can all get at least 900+ points on the next trade :!: (except for Slapshot - i'm guessing you dont get out of bed for anything less than four figures )

 

[frugi]

Sct

Dow still liking dem parallel channel seen.

Some of the lines (LH chart) benefit from being greased with hindsight; even so most of the important ones could (and can usually) be sketched in real time to help locate one or two potential low-risk entry / exit / reverse decision points, especially if the geometry concurs. Chuck in a lower time frame to sharpen the turns and it's possible to stay in the water for hours with 5 point stops, though doing so as ineptly as me sure racks up the old commissions too.

I hate to admit it but looking at the daily I'd be tempted to trade a breakout either way.

 

[Slapshot]

Been delayed and just got back in to see all the responses, so thanks to Pat494, Frugi, Macbonzo, Mark Twain, Kriesau, Slapshot and FC for your comments .

Just to let you know if your interested, since i didnt get in until 9:30 and SB Nikkei closes at 9 i'll be letting it run overnight :cheesy: , but while i was out i was thinking about doing this anyway and am comfortable with it.

Overall ive decided to let it run as thanks to FC reminding me, i think the conditions for why i got in are still right. Trading style is normally hold for a few days. I've tried intra day with some small degree of success but i'm not really good or lucky enough to pick intra day highs lows at the mo. Also i have this thing called 'work' i have to do during the day , very annoying, so don't have the time to sit and watch constantly.

I will let run, likely for at least a couple more days, continuing with my trailing stop and a buffer, but will also keep an eye out to scale out (higher placed longs first) should things change.

Thanks again, hope we can all get at least 900+ points on the next trade :!: (except for Slapshot - i'm guessing you dont get out of bed for anything less than four figures )

LOL! I wish!

Just lucky with that one I guess, I wish there were more of them. Maybe I should trade the markets which are open when I'm asleep as I seem to have more success than those that are open when I'm awake!!