mark twain uk
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HAH! I closed all my shorts before 8:00, got the full 100 points on dow and spx plus a further 20 on ndaq, just before the PPT brigade kicked in
“An Eerie Stillness”
by Jeffrey Saut
Back in the 1970s there was a TV series on every Sunday featuring Peter Benchley, the novelist who wrote the bestseller Jaws. We remember one Sunday show in particular. Benchley and the underwater photographer were diving on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, where they were assured sharks were always present. They saw and televised moray eels, manta rays, and every underwater creature conceivable but no sharks.
Day-after-day they continued diving, and it was more of the same. On the fifth day down, the underwater life seemed especially plentiful with a vast variety of specimens virtually everywhere but, once again, no sharks. All of a sudden, an eerie stillness fell upon the scene. All marine life seemed to disappear. Then, out of the silence there it came, 20 feet of sheer terror . . . the Great White.
A current “eerie stillness” on Wall Street ? Well, not really since the DJIA is resting some 1200 points above its mid-July lows. However, we still can’t shake the “eerie” feeling that something’s unnatural about the stock market’s action. Yeah, I know that when anyone gets “wrong footed” in the markets there is the tendency to make excuses. We have clearly been too cautious since those lows even though, on a trailing 12-month basis, we continue to outperform.
It’s also worth noting that we’re not conspiracy theorists, believing that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone and that George W. Bush really did win the election. Yet, there remains an eerie “bid” in the equity markets since those July lows. For example, markets typically rally, then correct by about one-quarter to one-third of that rally’s point gain, before beginning another rally phase. After that phase, they again correct by one-quarter to one-third before re-rallying. This, however, has not been the case recently. Indeed, every time it looked like the indices were about to correct, mysterious buyers materialized in the futures markets. Those “buyers” tend to widen the futures premiums so far above the cash markets that it attracts arbitrageurs. The arbs, in turn, short the futures and buy the appropriate baskets of stocks. That operation allows the arbs to “lock in” the spread between the futures price and what they paid for the basket of stocks, assuring them a risk-less profit and, in the process, driving stocks higher.
Evidentially, we are not the only ones that have noticed this “eerie situation” for Dr. Robert McHugh recently wrote that the rally since July has been almost entirely short-covering. We get one big move, about once a week, on buying panic, then no follow-up. All of the progress of this 3 month summer/autumn rally occurred in only 9 days of trading and all but one of the nine was a short-covering rally. Other than those 9 trading days out of 63 since July 14th, the other 54 days of trading produced only 4% of the upside progress, and zero since July 19th. ZERO . . .!
Amazingly, those nine sessions [7-19 (+212); 7-24 (+182); 7-28 (+119); 8-15 (+132); 8-16 (+97); 9-12 (+101); 9-26 (+93); 10-4 (+123); 10-12 (96)] accounted for 1155 of the Dow’s 1200-point gain from the July lows. Even more amazing is that on ALL of those nine trading days, according to our notes, showed that the aforementioned “mysterious” futures buyers were at work with the attendant arbs’ action. When we combine this “mysterious” equity action with the “mysterious” re-balancing of Goldman Sach’s (GS/$180.40) much institutionally indexed commodity index (GSCI), from a 7.3% gasoline weighting to 2.5% into the November elections, we find ourselves “mysteriously cautious.”
.............................................................................................................................
PPT action perhaps !!
by Jeffrey Saut
Back in the 1970s there was a TV series on every Sunday featuring Peter Benchley, the novelist who wrote the bestseller Jaws. We remember one Sunday show in particular. Benchley and the underwater photographer were diving on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, where they were assured sharks were always present. They saw and televised moray eels, manta rays, and every underwater creature conceivable but no sharks.
Day-after-day they continued diving, and it was more of the same. On the fifth day down, the underwater life seemed especially plentiful with a vast variety of specimens virtually everywhere but, once again, no sharks. All of a sudden, an eerie stillness fell upon the scene. All marine life seemed to disappear. Then, out of the silence there it came, 20 feet of sheer terror . . . the Great White.
A current “eerie stillness” on Wall Street ? Well, not really since the DJIA is resting some 1200 points above its mid-July lows. However, we still can’t shake the “eerie” feeling that something’s unnatural about the stock market’s action. Yeah, I know that when anyone gets “wrong footed” in the markets there is the tendency to make excuses. We have clearly been too cautious since those lows even though, on a trailing 12-month basis, we continue to outperform.
It’s also worth noting that we’re not conspiracy theorists, believing that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone and that George W. Bush really did win the election. Yet, there remains an eerie “bid” in the equity markets since those July lows. For example, markets typically rally, then correct by about one-quarter to one-third of that rally’s point gain, before beginning another rally phase. After that phase, they again correct by one-quarter to one-third before re-rallying. This, however, has not been the case recently. Indeed, every time it looked like the indices were about to correct, mysterious buyers materialized in the futures markets. Those “buyers” tend to widen the futures premiums so far above the cash markets that it attracts arbitrageurs. The arbs, in turn, short the futures and buy the appropriate baskets of stocks. That operation allows the arbs to “lock in” the spread between the futures price and what they paid for the basket of stocks, assuring them a risk-less profit and, in the process, driving stocks higher.
Evidentially, we are not the only ones that have noticed this “eerie situation” for Dr. Robert McHugh recently wrote that the rally since July has been almost entirely short-covering. We get one big move, about once a week, on buying panic, then no follow-up. All of the progress of this 3 month summer/autumn rally occurred in only 9 days of trading and all but one of the nine was a short-covering rally. Other than those 9 trading days out of 63 since July 14th, the other 54 days of trading produced only 4% of the upside progress, and zero since July 19th. ZERO . . .!
Amazingly, those nine sessions [7-19 (+212); 7-24 (+182); 7-28 (+119); 8-15 (+132); 8-16 (+97); 9-12 (+101); 9-26 (+93); 10-4 (+123); 10-12 (96)] accounted for 1155 of the Dow’s 1200-point gain from the July lows. Even more amazing is that on ALL of those nine trading days, according to our notes, showed that the aforementioned “mysterious” futures buyers were at work with the attendant arbs’ action. When we combine this “mysterious” equity action with the “mysterious” re-balancing of Goldman Sach’s (GS/$180.40) much institutionally indexed commodity index (GSCI), from a 7.3% gasoline weighting to 2.5% into the November elections, we find ourselves “mysteriously cautious.”
.............................................................................................................................
PPT action perhaps !!
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Charlie sez today:
"Mister Happy Face is getting battered. (Mr Happy Face is Charlies August 12,100 Dow target). Yesterday it was a whack on the ear, and today, a poke in the eye. This is happening a few days earlier than expected. But, today was the day that terminates the box-measurement charts I used in early and mid-September, to ASK the question, "Is This Possible?" Today's Low for the Dow was exactly sitting on the upper right-hand corner of the green reference box, answering the question with an emphatic "YES."
Today's bar sits there, very much like Humpty Dumpty, on the edge of the wall, pondering my arrows, projected last fall, and last spring. I still have confidence in them.
One reason for that confidence is the beginning of another rollover in the Lockstep chart. If we have seen the peak, then it came 3 days early. But, we are trying to shake off what I believe is the final cyclic flip a succession of flips. The implications of this are that, just as volume is coming into the NASDAQ, suggesting that sidelined money trying to make a profit by the end of the year, they are about to get burned by a quarter that finishes weak instead of strong, following a September Song that was sweet instead of sour. Many of these victims were the high-flying gamers of earlier years, so I personally have little sympathy for them. As in, "How the mighty have fallen." But perhaps they listen to too many TV Guri, who seem to be searching for something different to say that might work. Particularly the ones who lately bring their unique opinions to disclaim what you see in the Lockstep chart.
The Dow has pierced a dozen of those psychologically convenient, big round number, 1,000 point levels, since the beginning of time. We have, in Q4 of 2006, broken the 12,000 barrier. Will I be wrong, and we'll see 13,000 in a few weeks or months? Notice that I've circled today in gray. It remains to be seen if this is a true green breakthrough,(Up in his parlance) or if, as I expect, it will get a magenta arrow (Down in his parlance)."
.............................................................................................................................
My December NDX short at 1733 was stopped out on Thursday but I went short again on Friday at 1745 which is still an open position over the weekend. Didn't short the Dow breach of 12100 Cash (12135 Future) on Friday since this only occurred just before the close - cash future subsequently went back over 12100 before the weekend close. Now looking to short the December Future at 12075 (12040 Cash) since we still might see a final rally next week, prior to the 7/11 mid terms elections !
"Mister Happy Face is getting battered. (Mr Happy Face is Charlies August 12,100 Dow target). Yesterday it was a whack on the ear, and today, a poke in the eye. This is happening a few days earlier than expected. But, today was the day that terminates the box-measurement charts I used in early and mid-September, to ASK the question, "Is This Possible?" Today's Low for the Dow was exactly sitting on the upper right-hand corner of the green reference box, answering the question with an emphatic "YES."
Today's bar sits there, very much like Humpty Dumpty, on the edge of the wall, pondering my arrows, projected last fall, and last spring. I still have confidence in them.
One reason for that confidence is the beginning of another rollover in the Lockstep chart. If we have seen the peak, then it came 3 days early. But, we are trying to shake off what I believe is the final cyclic flip a succession of flips. The implications of this are that, just as volume is coming into the NASDAQ, suggesting that sidelined money trying to make a profit by the end of the year, they are about to get burned by a quarter that finishes weak instead of strong, following a September Song that was sweet instead of sour. Many of these victims were the high-flying gamers of earlier years, so I personally have little sympathy for them. As in, "How the mighty have fallen." But perhaps they listen to too many TV Guri, who seem to be searching for something different to say that might work. Particularly the ones who lately bring their unique opinions to disclaim what you see in the Lockstep chart.
The Dow has pierced a dozen of those psychologically convenient, big round number, 1,000 point levels, since the beginning of time. We have, in Q4 of 2006, broken the 12,000 barrier. Will I be wrong, and we'll see 13,000 in a few weeks or months? Notice that I've circled today in gray. It remains to be seen if this is a true green breakthrough,(Up in his parlance) or if, as I expect, it will get a magenta arrow (Down in his parlance)."
.............................................................................................................................
My December NDX short at 1733 was stopped out on Thursday but I went short again on Friday at 1745 which is still an open position over the weekend. Didn't short the Dow breach of 12100 Cash (12135 Future) on Friday since this only occurred just before the close - cash future subsequently went back over 12100 before the weekend close. Now looking to short the December Future at 12075 (12040 Cash) since we still might see a final rally next week, prior to the 7/11 mid terms elections !
The looming US economic problem !
GAO chief warns economic disaster looms
AUSTIN, Texas (AFX) - David M. Walker sure talks like he's running for office but he doesn't want, or need, your vote this November. He already has a job as head of the Government Accountability Office, an investigative arm of Congress that audits and evaluates the performance of the federal government. Basically, that makes Walker the nation's accountant-in-chief. And the accountant-in-chief's professional opinion is that the American public needs to tell Washington it's time to steer the nation off the path to financial ruin.
The vast majority of economists and budget analysts agree: The ship of state is on a disastrous course, and will founder on the reefs of economic disaster if nothing is done to correct it. Walker has committed to touring the nation through the 2008 elections, talking to anybody who will listen about the fiscal black hole Washington has dug itself, the "demographic tsunami" that will come when the baby boom generation begins retiring and the recklessness of borrowing money from foreign lenders to pay for the operation of the U.S. government. Walker can talk in public about the nation's impending fiscal crisis because he has one of the most secure jobs in Washington. As comptroller general of the US -- basically, the government's chief accountant -- he is serving a 15-year term that runs through 2013.
The backbone of his campaign has been the Fiscal Wake-up Tour, a traveling roadshow of economists and budget analysts who share Walker's concern for the nation's budgetary future. "You can't solve a problem until the majority of the people believe you have a problem that needs to be solved," Walker says. When pollsters ask Americans to name the most important problem facing America today -- issues such as the war in Iraq, terrorism, jobs and the economy are most frequently mentioned. The deficit doesn't even crack the top 10. Walker's challenge is to get people not just to think about it, but to pressure politicians to make the hard choices that are needed to keep the situation from spiraling out of control.
To show that the looming fiscal crisis is not a partisan issue, he brings along economists and budget analysts from across the political spectrum. Their basic message is this: If the United States government conducts business as usual over the next few decades, a national debt that is already $8.5 trillion could reach $46 trillion or more, adjusted for inflation. That's almost as much as the total net worth of every person in America -- Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and those Google guys included. A hole that big could paralyze the U.S. economy; according to some projections, just the interest payments on a debt that big would be as much as all the taxes the government collects today. And every year that nothing is done about it, Walker says, the problem grows by $2 trillion to $3 trillion.
The federal government actually produced a surplus for a few years during the 1990s, thanks to a booming economy and fiscal restraint imposed by laws that were passed early in the decade. And though the federal debt has grown in dollar terms since 2001, it hasn't grown dramatically relative to the size of the economy. But that's about to change, thanks to the country's three big entitlement programs -- Social Security, Medicaid and especially Medicare. And with the first baby boomers becoming eligible for Social Security in 2008 and for Medicare in 2011, the expenses of those two programs are about to increase dramatically due to demographic pressures. People are also living longer, which makes any program that provides benefits to retirees more expensive.
Medicare currently comprises 13 percent of federal spending; by 2030, the Congressional Budget Office projects it will consume nearly a quarter of the budget. By 2030 Medicare will be about $5 trillion in the hole, measured in 2004 dollars. By 2080, the fiscal imbalance will have risen to $25 trillion.
Social Security is a much less serious problem. The program currently pays for itself with a 12.4 percent payroll tax, and even produces a surplus that the government raids every year to pay other bills. But Social Security will begin to run deficits during the next century, and ultimately would need an infusion of $8 trillion if the government planned to keep its promises to every beneficiary. Calculations by Boston University economist Lawrence Kotlikoff indicate that closing those gaps, $8 trillion for Social Security, many times that for Medicare, and paying off the existing deficit would require either an immediate doubling of personal and corporate income taxes, a two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits, or some combination of the two.
Why is America so fiscally unprepared for the next century? Like many of its citizens, the United States has spent the last few years racking up debt instead of saving for the future. Foreign lenders -- primarily the central banks of China, Japan and other big U.S. trading partners -- have been eager to lend the government money at low interest rates, making the current $8.5-trillion deficit about as painful as a big balance on a zero-percent credit card. Even when rates are low a bigger deficit means a greater portion of each tax dollar goes to interest payments rather than useful programs. And because foreigners now hold so much of the federal government's debt, those interest payments increasingly go overseas rather than to U.S. investors.
More serious is the possibility that foreign lenders might lose their enthusiasm for lending money to the United States. Because treasury bills are sold at auction, that would mean paying higher interest rates in the future. And it wouldn't just be the government's problem. All interest rates would rise, making mortgages, car payments and student loans costlier, too. A modest rise in interest rates wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, higher rates could moderate overconsumption and encourage consumer saving. But a big jump in interest rates could cause economic catastrophe. Some economists even predict the government would resort to printing money to pay off its debt, a risky strategy that could lead to runaway inflation. Macroeconomic meltdown is probably preventable but to keep it at bay, he said, the government is essentially going to have to renegotiate some of the promises it has made to its citizens, probably by some combination of tax increases and benefit cuts.
The last six years of Republican rule have produced tax cuts, record spending increases and a Medicare prescription drug plan that has been widely criticized as fiscally unsound. When President Clinton faced a Republican Congress during the 1990s, spending limits and other legislative tools helped produce a surplus. So maybe a solution is at hand. But Walker isn't optimistic that the government will be able to tackle its fiscal challenges so soon. "Realistically what we hope to accomplish through the fiscal wake-up tour is ensure that any serious candidate for the presidency in 2008 will be forced to deal with the issue," he says. "The best we're going to get in the next couple of years is to slow the bleeding."
GAO chief warns economic disaster looms
AUSTIN, Texas (AFX) - David M. Walker sure talks like he's running for office but he doesn't want, or need, your vote this November. He already has a job as head of the Government Accountability Office, an investigative arm of Congress that audits and evaluates the performance of the federal government. Basically, that makes Walker the nation's accountant-in-chief. And the accountant-in-chief's professional opinion is that the American public needs to tell Washington it's time to steer the nation off the path to financial ruin.
The vast majority of economists and budget analysts agree: The ship of state is on a disastrous course, and will founder on the reefs of economic disaster if nothing is done to correct it. Walker has committed to touring the nation through the 2008 elections, talking to anybody who will listen about the fiscal black hole Washington has dug itself, the "demographic tsunami" that will come when the baby boom generation begins retiring and the recklessness of borrowing money from foreign lenders to pay for the operation of the U.S. government. Walker can talk in public about the nation's impending fiscal crisis because he has one of the most secure jobs in Washington. As comptroller general of the US -- basically, the government's chief accountant -- he is serving a 15-year term that runs through 2013.
The backbone of his campaign has been the Fiscal Wake-up Tour, a traveling roadshow of economists and budget analysts who share Walker's concern for the nation's budgetary future. "You can't solve a problem until the majority of the people believe you have a problem that needs to be solved," Walker says. When pollsters ask Americans to name the most important problem facing America today -- issues such as the war in Iraq, terrorism, jobs and the economy are most frequently mentioned. The deficit doesn't even crack the top 10. Walker's challenge is to get people not just to think about it, but to pressure politicians to make the hard choices that are needed to keep the situation from spiraling out of control.
To show that the looming fiscal crisis is not a partisan issue, he brings along economists and budget analysts from across the political spectrum. Their basic message is this: If the United States government conducts business as usual over the next few decades, a national debt that is already $8.5 trillion could reach $46 trillion or more, adjusted for inflation. That's almost as much as the total net worth of every person in America -- Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and those Google guys included. A hole that big could paralyze the U.S. economy; according to some projections, just the interest payments on a debt that big would be as much as all the taxes the government collects today. And every year that nothing is done about it, Walker says, the problem grows by $2 trillion to $3 trillion.
The federal government actually produced a surplus for a few years during the 1990s, thanks to a booming economy and fiscal restraint imposed by laws that were passed early in the decade. And though the federal debt has grown in dollar terms since 2001, it hasn't grown dramatically relative to the size of the economy. But that's about to change, thanks to the country's three big entitlement programs -- Social Security, Medicaid and especially Medicare. And with the first baby boomers becoming eligible for Social Security in 2008 and for Medicare in 2011, the expenses of those two programs are about to increase dramatically due to demographic pressures. People are also living longer, which makes any program that provides benefits to retirees more expensive.
Medicare currently comprises 13 percent of federal spending; by 2030, the Congressional Budget Office projects it will consume nearly a quarter of the budget. By 2030 Medicare will be about $5 trillion in the hole, measured in 2004 dollars. By 2080, the fiscal imbalance will have risen to $25 trillion.
Social Security is a much less serious problem. The program currently pays for itself with a 12.4 percent payroll tax, and even produces a surplus that the government raids every year to pay other bills. But Social Security will begin to run deficits during the next century, and ultimately would need an infusion of $8 trillion if the government planned to keep its promises to every beneficiary. Calculations by Boston University economist Lawrence Kotlikoff indicate that closing those gaps, $8 trillion for Social Security, many times that for Medicare, and paying off the existing deficit would require either an immediate doubling of personal and corporate income taxes, a two-thirds cut in Social Security and Medicare benefits, or some combination of the two.
Why is America so fiscally unprepared for the next century? Like many of its citizens, the United States has spent the last few years racking up debt instead of saving for the future. Foreign lenders -- primarily the central banks of China, Japan and other big U.S. trading partners -- have been eager to lend the government money at low interest rates, making the current $8.5-trillion deficit about as painful as a big balance on a zero-percent credit card. Even when rates are low a bigger deficit means a greater portion of each tax dollar goes to interest payments rather than useful programs. And because foreigners now hold so much of the federal government's debt, those interest payments increasingly go overseas rather than to U.S. investors.
More serious is the possibility that foreign lenders might lose their enthusiasm for lending money to the United States. Because treasury bills are sold at auction, that would mean paying higher interest rates in the future. And it wouldn't just be the government's problem. All interest rates would rise, making mortgages, car payments and student loans costlier, too. A modest rise in interest rates wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, higher rates could moderate overconsumption and encourage consumer saving. But a big jump in interest rates could cause economic catastrophe. Some economists even predict the government would resort to printing money to pay off its debt, a risky strategy that could lead to runaway inflation. Macroeconomic meltdown is probably preventable but to keep it at bay, he said, the government is essentially going to have to renegotiate some of the promises it has made to its citizens, probably by some combination of tax increases and benefit cuts.
The last six years of Republican rule have produced tax cuts, record spending increases and a Medicare prescription drug plan that has been widely criticized as fiscally unsound. When President Clinton faced a Republican Congress during the 1990s, spending limits and other legislative tools helped produce a surplus. So maybe a solution is at hand. But Walker isn't optimistic that the government will be able to tackle its fiscal challenges so soon. "Realistically what we hope to accomplish through the fiscal wake-up tour is ensure that any serious candidate for the presidency in 2008 will be forced to deal with the issue," he says. "The best we're going to get in the next couple of years is to slow the bleeding."
mark twain uk
Established member
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- 618
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- 4
Re-opened my customary short overnight, I don't want to be out of the market at such a time, when the drop comes it will be too sharp to get in, so I am back on the short side with my regular size, looking to add on any rally that fizzles
mark twain uk
Established member
- Messages
- 618
- Likes
- 4
out again this morning for a few points profit overnight, the european markets look like they're going to bounce and this will drag the us indices, I left a sell order just under this morning's low, just in case it decides to carry on south anyway
Economy in Free-Fall
Bob Carver
Sunday, October 29, 2006
The US Government tried its best to spin it, but the handwriting is on the wall. The US economy is not heading for a "soft landing" -- it's a full-out recession and it's almost here.
Commerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez pointed to a "correction" in housing in rationalizing why economic growth in the US is falling back toward zero at a rapid rate. The downshift has been dramatic, with each quarter in 2006 seeing the growth rate drop by about half or more. And, as many private economists pointed out after the GDP Report was released Friday, had it not been for a statistical quirk, the growth rate would have been less than 1% in the Third Quarter. Wishful thinking by the Administration says housing is about to bounce back, but that's something that is just not going to happen. The housing market has never turned up in similar circumstances in history and it's definitely not different this time.
The stock market dipped on the news, but within the context of the major rally that has been going on for the last fifteen weeks, it was only a minor pullback. Since the lows in July, in fact, the benchmark S&P 500 Index has gained 12%, a rise of 0.8% per week. Wishful thinking is also rampant in the stock market, but it's not that unusual for a short covering rally like this to take place just before the level of economic activity peaks and rolls over into recession.
An old Wall Street adage says that the market discount a recession six months in advance, but the lessons of history disprove that myth as stocks tend to peak almost exactly at the time the growth rate reaches zero and drops below it. That hasn't happened quite yet, though, and that means the stock market probably has room to make some gains yet. That won't make the bears very happy. They have been selling rallies short and losing their shirts. In fact, much of the rally is due to bear-buying pressure, which continues to support each dip. At some point the bears will be right. But, will they have any funds left by the time the real top in stocks comes? Someone at TradingTheCharts.com said it very well: "There won't be a bear left standing at the real stock market top."
Bob Carver
Sunday, October 29, 2006
The US Government tried its best to spin it, but the handwriting is on the wall. The US economy is not heading for a "soft landing" -- it's a full-out recession and it's almost here.
Commerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez pointed to a "correction" in housing in rationalizing why economic growth in the US is falling back toward zero at a rapid rate. The downshift has been dramatic, with each quarter in 2006 seeing the growth rate drop by about half or more. And, as many private economists pointed out after the GDP Report was released Friday, had it not been for a statistical quirk, the growth rate would have been less than 1% in the Third Quarter. Wishful thinking by the Administration says housing is about to bounce back, but that's something that is just not going to happen. The housing market has never turned up in similar circumstances in history and it's definitely not different this time.
The stock market dipped on the news, but within the context of the major rally that has been going on for the last fifteen weeks, it was only a minor pullback. Since the lows in July, in fact, the benchmark S&P 500 Index has gained 12%, a rise of 0.8% per week. Wishful thinking is also rampant in the stock market, but it's not that unusual for a short covering rally like this to take place just before the level of economic activity peaks and rolls over into recession.
An old Wall Street adage says that the market discount a recession six months in advance, but the lessons of history disprove that myth as stocks tend to peak almost exactly at the time the growth rate reaches zero and drops below it. That hasn't happened quite yet, though, and that means the stock market probably has room to make some gains yet. That won't make the bears very happy. They have been selling rallies short and losing their shirts. In fact, much of the rally is due to bear-buying pressure, which continues to support each dip. At some point the bears will be right. But, will they have any funds left by the time the real top in stocks comes? Someone at TradingTheCharts.com said it very well: "There won't be a bear left standing at the real stock market top."
Manipulators busy again today ! If you kept your stop at 12088 then you've been taken out already.karmit said:
If you are wondering why then consider the following. Dow Cash sold off down to 12045 just after 15.00. Oil at that time was $59.62. Then the Oil price suddenly dropped very quickly to $58.85 and the Dow rallied back up to 12100.
As at 16.30 both Oil and the Dow remain close to those levels !
Umm..........WW1 yes...............Sarajevo, a Balkan citykarmit said:"Russian diplomats beaten up in Macedonian cafe"
Enough to start a 3rd WW ?- considering both the previous ones started in that dreaded region!
But.............WW2 no................Danzig, a Baltic port