Do You need to know all of the technical alalysis stuff?

[Upcomingstockmaster]

The upcomingstockmaster thinks that by keeping it SIMPLE, will work. Is learning about all this stuff a waste of time?


Could I be succesful by keeping it simple, ie betting when I think the time is right by not using any of this technical analysis stuff, or is it impossible/extremely unlikely.

 

[shadowninja]

Would have thought that depends on when you consider the time is right (how?) and what you count as technical analysis.

Naked trading, IMO, would be just seeing the raw number on a screen; no candles, no moving averages, no graphcs at all.

 

[Upcomingstockmaster]

Would have thought that depends on when you consider the time is right (how?) and what you count as technical analysis.

Naked trading, IMO, would be just seeing the raw number on a screen; no candles, no moving averages, no graphcs at all.

Naked trading aye, is it possible to be succesful this way? It may sound like complete gambling and no logic behind bets, but if the chart is low, go long vice versa...like that.

 

[shadowninja]

Look at EUR/USD today and tell me if it was too high yesterday.

If you want to really make it simple, just plot support and resistance lines, and try that. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. How you deal with a failure is down to you. I use MA crossovers to swing trade with some success. I think it's pretty simple.

Bare in mind that Jesse Livermore traded on ticker price alone for a long time (I think he had some sort of charting system later on).

 

[Upcomingstockmaster]

Look at EUR/USD today and tell me if it was too high yesterday.

If you want to really make it simple, just plot support and resistance lines, and try that. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. How you deal with a failure is down to you. I use MA crossovers to swing trade with some success. I think it's pretty simple.

Bare in mind that Jesse Livermore traded on ticker price alone for a long time (I think he had some sort of charting system later on).

Ok, I think If I keep my trading simple and disciplined is the way for me.

Sometimes I think things that are the most important to us are hidden because they are so simple...

 

[0007]

The upcomingstockmaster thinks that by keeping it SIMPLE, will work. Is learning about all this stuff a waste of time?


Could I be succesful by keeping it simple, ie betting when I think the time is right by not using any of this technical analysis stuff, or is it impossible/extremely unlikely.

IMHO you need to know as much about everything as you are capable of understanding. Then, hopefully you will be in a position to judge what is relevant. You'll get plenty of good input from others here but, its just like trading: only you will know what works for you. Whatever you do don't confuse simplicity (an essential quality) with leaving out half the study syllabus.

I suppose the acid test is: can you make any dosh? If you can do that without all the study etc etc then go ahead - you're very gifted or lucky (or both).

I've found that trading successfully is a serious business requiring serious study and hard work - it takes time to absorb the "training" before you're in a position to start losing money! Just look at expert professionals in any field - they all had years of training to even get to the point where they could practise. Why should trading be any different ?

Yet urban folklore says 90% of traders fail (is that true - anyone know?) so learn all you can - knowledge is power. Good luck - there's a phenomenal amount of info & good links on this site - it's helped me loads.

 

[nine]

The answer is "almost certainly no."

Why, because your strategy (for want of a better word) seems based on winging it. I think therefore I will do. But emotions will get in the way. And what will you do when you are wrong 6 or 7 times in a row?

The good thing - you will donate to those who have been disciplined enough to have a plan and execute it. The bad thing - you will either cease trading or delay your learning until you have got this great idea out of your system.

I wish you "quick luck."

 

[dbphoenix]

The upcomingstockmaster thinks that by keeping it SIMPLE, will work. Is learning about all this stuff a waste of time?


Could I be succesful by keeping it simple, ie betting when I think the time is right by not using any of this technical analysis stuff

Why not? Everything is known in advance . . .

 

[PualoP]

If you watch CNBC they'll actually mock you for knowing technical analysis!!

 

[shadowninja]

My take on it is that if it works for you, use it. I gazing into a crystal ball to predict stock market movements gives me enough of an edge to make me a million, they can laugh all they want.

Y'know, all I use these days is a couple of MAs and round numbers. Even the TAs laugh at me.

 

[wilkelec]

I would say that you can trade without any data analysis. But knowing it can be very beneficial. (There are enough people trading using data analysis in the belief that it works to make it appear as if it works) There is a way you can take profits all the time but not many people are patient enough to wait for the perfect moment. They get addicted to trying to out smart a system with the belief of being right. Perfect example (Lots of people believe in living life by a religious book, There are lots of books which ones the right one? If you told the person that believed in one book it was the wrong one would they believe you?) Real truth is all you need is a pair of eyes and some patience and your going to win consistantly. Setting stops and spending the day doing what you like can work. If its a genuine up trend you wont get stopped out. Forex is a diferent story. If you use a stop loss without a conservative limit odds are you will be stopped out by the time you get home. The losses mount up. If you want to do anything successfully you have to put in the effort. Educating yourself on the competition can only be a good thing.

 

[nine]

My take on it is that if it works for you, use it. I gazing into a crystal ball to predict stock market movements gives me enough of an edge to make me a million, they can laugh all they want.

Y'know, all I use these days is a couple of MAs and round numbers. Even the TAs laugh at me.

I don't even use the round numbers.

dbPhoenix goes simpler and doesn't use the MAs either.

But it is still technical analysis ... maybe more so for skipping a bunch of things that add little value to that analysis.

But if you don't have a plan, however simple, for what you will do that includes exits, entry rationale and a strategy for managing your trades then you will end up a donor in the great beneficial system called the markets.

If you want to be a receiver then you need to know what you will do and why. Let me know in a couple of years if you succeeded without a plan. I will be first to congratulate you for fooling randomness. :clover:

 

[wilkelec]

I have learnt the technical analysis and its easy. Anyone can understand it. Even my 2 year old daughter knows when is a good time to buy!!! Helps me sleep safe at night knowing my competition. But I also do the full leg work and look into the state of the economy, companies reports etc etc the list goes on and on. But I still dont think you cant make money making your decisions without it and I will give you one good reason why. PEOPLE WERE MAKING MONEY ON THE STOCK MARKET LONG BEFORE ALL THIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS STUFF WAS AVAILABLE AND ARE STILL MAKING MONEY TODAY. WARREN BUFFETT DID NOT USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SO DONT SAY IT CANT BE DONE.

 

[normbeef]

"Interesting" -- I think if anyone reckons they have a system that will work over any amount of time then they are MAD.. (or lucky)

"Nobody" can predict the future... even BUFFETT but having a few million quid to invest over a very long time period can of course produce the type of returns he has achieved if you are lucky... The key thing is we forget the all the failures around him.... how many others are there in Buffetts time frame / class who did not make the billions and failed... if you look at the sample size I bet you'd find he has had more than his share of the luck and would produce's a skewed outcome.

He is possibly the luckiest man alive !!! (and nobody can argue that he is now the richest)

 

[nine]

But unlike the foolish proposals in this thread Warren Buffett used a huge amount of analysis. The OP proposed "betting when you think the time is ready." Do you think W B did that? (no answer needed, I'm not assuming you're a fool).

This thread doesn't say you HAVE to use TA. But I think most would agree that you'd better have some form of A. If you trade without A and A PLAN then only amazing luck will prevent you being a donor in the medium term.

Let us know how your pure FA strategy goes? Would I be right in assuming you're an investor and not a trader anyway?


PS. Jesse L made a great deal of money on the markets using TA; more than you or I'll ever make.

 

[dbphoenix]

But unlike the foolish proposals in this thread Warren Buffett used a huge amount of analysis. The OP proposed "betting when you think the time is ready." Do you think W B did that? (no answer needed, I'm not assuming you're a fool).

This thread doesn't say you HAVE to use TA. But I think most would agree that you'd better have some form of A. If you trade without A and A PLAN then only amazing luck will prevent you being a donor in the medium term.

Let us know how your pure FA strategy goes? Would I be right in assuming you're an investor and not a trader anyway?


PS. Jesse L made a great deal of money on the markets using TA; more than you or I'll ever make.

I went through all this with the Motley Fool people back in '00 after the trendline broke. A few listened. Most didn't. And they pretty much vanished.

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