Now for the real answer to your question. No-one on this BB is allowed/qualified ( as far as I know) to give investment advice, which , in a nutshell, is what you are asking for. If someone was to do so, this whole site would be in jeopardy from the FSA. That's not to say that you won't get helpful replies from many people. The real crunch here is that you are clearly a beginner and you need to get some experience and skill behind you before (as you stated earlier) you'll lose the lot...
For example, what on earth led you to think that the market would go back up to 10,500 again? My expectation at 18:50 was that a likely target was 10,530.....and no more. As it turns out, there is a little more, but not because of any pre-conceived ideas..
There are well documented threads on trading the Dow on this BB and in them you will find untold gems of information and tips . One of which is to take an exit on a 3 pk Negative Divergence that spreads across a MINIMUM of 25 minutes. 9 times out of 10 ( or more) this will be the top of an intraday rally. Today is one of the very few exceptions that you will see. Do not be phased by this and think ' If only I had held on a bit longer, I'd have made another 5 points'.... The other 9 times you will lose 20 points!!! There are a few days where the Dow seems to be on steroids, and there are days where it just doesn't want to go anywhere.
Take what the market gives you. and not a penny more.
Today , I had an idea that something was not quite right with the Dow, and I'll explain in my Dow Report tonight if you want to know why...
For example, what on earth led you to think that the market would go back up to 10,500 again? My expectation at 18:50 was that a likely target was 10,530.....and no more. As it turns out, there is a little more, but not because of any pre-conceived ideas..
There are well documented threads on trading the Dow on this BB and in them you will find untold gems of information and tips . One of which is to take an exit on a 3 pk Negative Divergence that spreads across a MINIMUM of 25 minutes. 9 times out of 10 ( or more) this will be the top of an intraday rally. Today is one of the very few exceptions that you will see. Do not be phased by this and think ' If only I had held on a bit longer, I'd have made another 5 points'.... The other 9 times you will lose 20 points!!! There are a few days where the Dow seems to be on steroids, and there are days where it just doesn't want to go anywhere.
Take what the market gives you. and not a penny more.
Today , I had an idea that something was not quite right with the Dow, and I'll explain in my Dow Report tonight if you want to know why...
well i held my positon and was cut out at 10501 for a 100 point profit (on the march dow). Guess i learnt another thing from that trade and that was to stick to the plan and not let emotion get into it halfway through.
Now to hold on to the profit!
Well back to charts to find my next prospective trade.
Now to hold on to the profit!
Well back to charts to find my next prospective trade.
Going back to the originial question on software for charting:
I have recently been using the IT Finance site www.it-finance.com for charting software. It felt pretty strange at first but now I think its great.
I have recently been using the IT Finance site www.it-finance.com for charting software. It felt pretty strange at first but now I think its great.
Hi Guys,
Just really a lurker here and have not placed a real trade yet as I have only just finished reading Murphy.
I would like to say to the beginners like that there is a great free interactive charting tool at comdirect. The direct URL is
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/financetools/javaanalyser/index.html
It gives you loads of trend/cyclical analysis and even gives you interactive fib gann indicators.
This has been invaluable to me during my learning process.
Cheers,
J
Just really a lurker here and have not placed a real trade yet as I have only just finished reading Murphy.
I would like to say to the beginners like that there is a great free interactive charting tool at comdirect. The direct URL is
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/financetools/javaanalyser/index.html
It gives you loads of trend/cyclical analysis and even gives you interactive fib gann indicators.
This has been invaluable to me during my learning process.
Cheers,
J
Bit of a random question but if say i've got £1000 capital for instance. What kind of bet size should i use on the dow without risking too much?
It's been mentioned in places that you should only risk 1% of your captial per trade. So that means sort of £1 a point with a 10 point stop loss. Don't think that would give me many profitable trades!
Im thinking £2 a point with a maximum loss per trade of £50 or 25 points. What do you guys think? I don't day trade, my trades usually last a few days maybe a week. (i've been told that im a swing trader, dunno if thats right)
Let me know :cheesy:
It's been mentioned in places that you should only risk 1% of your captial per trade. So that means sort of £1 a point with a 10 point stop loss. Don't think that would give me many profitable trades!
Im thinking £2 a point with a maximum loss per trade of £50 or 25 points. What do you guys think? I don't day trade, my trades usually last a few days maybe a week. (i've been told that im a swing trader, dunno if thats right)
Let me know :cheesy:
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The £1 a point with a 10 point stop loss is the best. What you just need to do is to work out where the least risk to your entry will be, and then only take those trades.
However, you may well have to risk 2% of your pot when starting out. Still trade £1 a point, but have a 20 point stop loss. DON'T do what you're thinking of betting £2 a point - that is greed starting to appear, and to be successful in this game you need to have NO emotion.
So do £1 a point, and then if you're swing trading, wait until that trade gets into profit, then start another trade. If you have discipline at this stage, it will teach you to wait for the right setups only, and not jump in just for the fun of it all.
And then as your trading experience increases, your stakes will increase if you are still using the 2% of your total pot rule. So when you have £2k in your account, that's the time to trade £2 a point.
However, you may well have to risk 2% of your pot when starting out. Still trade £1 a point, but have a 20 point stop loss. DON'T do what you're thinking of betting £2 a point - that is greed starting to appear, and to be successful in this game you need to have NO emotion.
So do £1 a point, and then if you're swing trading, wait until that trade gets into profit, then start another trade. If you have discipline at this stage, it will teach you to wait for the right setups only, and not jump in just for the fun of it all.
And then as your trading experience increases, your stakes will increase if you are still using the 2% of your total pot rule. So when you have £2k in your account, that's the time to trade £2 a point.
madasafish
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"maximum loss per trade of £50 or 25 points" when swing trading.
Is that loss end of day or intraday..?
Unless you are VERY VERY good, you will easily get that loss intraday.. every day.. unless the market is trending one way - every day.. like pigs flying..
Or do you have a preset target at which you close?
remeber indices move in cycles intraday up and down and 25 points on the Dow could be a 10 minute move.. and you are stopped out.. every day for a week.. -£250
Unlikely? No virtually guaranteed unless you have perfect timing.. oh you are new to futures?
Look at a Dow chart intraday on Chrtman's thread and see what I mean...
Is that loss end of day or intraday..?
Unless you are VERY VERY good, you will easily get that loss intraday.. every day.. unless the market is trending one way - every day.. like pigs flying..
Or do you have a preset target at which you close?
remeber indices move in cycles intraday up and down and 25 points on the Dow could be a 10 minute move.. and you are stopped out.. every day for a week.. -£250
Unlikely? No virtually guaranteed unless you have perfect timing.. oh you are new to futures?
Look at a Dow chart intraday on Chrtman's thread and see what I mean...
thanks skimble, clears that up.
madasfish, when i said 25 points i meant that if a trade goes 25 points in the wrong direction, i will close it. Then go back to the charts and find my next entry point as clearly i've got it wrong. is that alright? Or should i make the stop loss larger if im swing trading, as you have said the dow will move 25 points in 10 mins?
Thanks
madasfish, when i said 25 points i meant that if a trade goes 25 points in the wrong direction, i will close it. Then go back to the charts and find my next entry point as clearly i've got it wrong. is that alright? Or should i make the stop loss larger if im swing trading, as you have said the dow will move 25 points in 10 mins?
Thanks
Hammer -
My rules are
a) Plan your entry
b) Plan your exit
c) Use a trailing stop that reduces in size at set profit targets
d) Dont bend your rules.
Above all stick to your system! (unless it is a losing one of course)
You will get it just as long as you dont burn out broke before hand or fall asleep at the keyboard because you are replying to posts at 2.28AM?
Best of Luck
Splurge
My rules are
a) Plan your entry
b) Plan your exit
c) Use a trailing stop that reduces in size at set profit targets
d) Dont bend your rules.
Above all stick to your system! (unless it is a losing one of course)
You will get it just as long as you dont burn out broke before hand or fall asleep at the keyboard because you are replying to posts at 2.28AM?
Best of Luck
Splurge
madasafish
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If you are setting a 25 point stop which closes you out automatically when hit, then you MUST set a target price which does the same.
Why? Becasue (if short say) the price can easily fall 50 points (say) - your profit target is hit and exceeded Hurray - but the market can easily reverse that loss and end up reversing all 50 points and then a further 25 - stopping you out at a loss!
So YOU MUST set TARGETS and CLOSE out or you will end up losing (and better to set a target that is achievable than one which is optimistic.
If your stop is 25 points, you would want to set your target greater than that (risk/reward) or over time you have no chance of winning.. Ideally you want a reward/risk ratio of 3:1 (a 75 point target) - to allow for inevitable losing trades.. - or more..
I you have no idea of risk/reward, read some of Grey1's posts.. or do a search on this site..
Remember trading as you plan to do will involve losses so you want to make sure the statistics are in your favour..
If your success rate is 40% and your reward/risk is 3:1 with a 25 point stop.. in every 10 trades
you win 4 : at 3:1 = 75 x4 =300 points
you lose 6 at 25 points =-150
If your reward/risk is 2:1 you win 50 x4 = 200
you lose 6*25 =-150
Frankly if you are a beginner, your chances of 40% success rate are questionable...
WHy?
Well you must get both market direction and timing right. You may get both right but the market may spike up/down after you enter your trade, stop you out and then continue on in the direction you chose.. Happens often
Sit down , do your sums and then do some paper trading and see what your success rate is.. and write it all down.. if you are holding overnight then you may be stopped out overnight at a price you NEVER see during the day (and remember US futures tarde 24 hours a day )...
I am not trying to put you off: just point out some practicalities
Why? Becasue (if short say) the price can easily fall 50 points (say) - your profit target is hit and exceeded Hurray - but the market can easily reverse that loss and end up reversing all 50 points and then a further 25 - stopping you out at a loss!
So YOU MUST set TARGETS and CLOSE out or you will end up losing (and better to set a target that is achievable than one which is optimistic.
If your stop is 25 points, you would want to set your target greater than that (risk/reward) or over time you have no chance of winning.. Ideally you want a reward/risk ratio of 3:1 (a 75 point target) - to allow for inevitable losing trades.. - or more..
I you have no idea of risk/reward, read some of Grey1's posts.. or do a search on this site..
Remember trading as you plan to do will involve losses so you want to make sure the statistics are in your favour..
If your success rate is 40% and your reward/risk is 3:1 with a 25 point stop.. in every 10 trades
you win 4 : at 3:1 = 75 x4 =300 points
you lose 6 at 25 points =-150
If your reward/risk is 2:1 you win 50 x4 = 200
you lose 6*25 =-150
Frankly if you are a beginner, your chances of 40% success rate are questionable...
WHy?
Well you must get both market direction and timing right. You may get both right but the market may spike up/down after you enter your trade, stop you out and then continue on in the direction you chose.. Happens often
Sit down , do your sums and then do some paper trading and see what your success rate is.. and write it all down.. if you are holding overnight then you may be stopped out overnight at a price you NEVER see during the day (and remember US futures tarde 24 hours a day )...
I am not trying to put you off: just point out some practicalities
Ok great, gotta make sure my limits are just as planned as my stops. I will try the 3:1 ratio.
At the moment its hard to get used to taking the losses. For instance i had a 100 point profit on monday but throughout the week i've had a few small losses which have added up and almost taken the whole 100 point profit i made! Its like i have to start all over again on monday!
Im gonna try to stick to the rules that you have laid out and see how i do next week. Will let you know.
Thanks :cheesy:
At the moment its hard to get used to taking the losses. For instance i had a 100 point profit on monday but throughout the week i've had a few small losses which have added up and almost taken the whole 100 point profit i made! Its like i have to start all over again on monday!
Im gonna try to stick to the rules that you have laid out and see how i do next week. Will let you know.
Thanks :cheesy:
not a good week for me last week.
Opened a long position at 10461 and had the stop at 10400 on friday. Thought it would be a good opportunity for a long bet for the week as it had just dropped like 100 or so points! Limit was set at 10600. Turns out i was right in thinkin that it was gonna go up but didn't plan for it to fall to like 10360! Takin me out of the game by triggering my stop. Didn't have a chance to keep an eye on the market so couldn't get back in, plus confidence was low!
Im finding that i usually get the direction right but either stay in too long or get out too quick! That is if the limits or stops don't get triggered first. Any suggestions? Getting the hang of sticking to my plan but don't know how to change the plan as the trade progresses if need may be. Any suggestions?
Thx :cheesy:
Opened a long position at 10461 and had the stop at 10400 on friday. Thought it would be a good opportunity for a long bet for the week as it had just dropped like 100 or so points! Limit was set at 10600. Turns out i was right in thinkin that it was gonna go up but didn't plan for it to fall to like 10360! Takin me out of the game by triggering my stop. Didn't have a chance to keep an eye on the market so couldn't get back in, plus confidence was low!
Im finding that i usually get the direction right but either stay in too long or get out too quick! That is if the limits or stops don't get triggered first. Any suggestions? Getting the hang of sticking to my plan but don't know how to change the plan as the trade progresses if need may be. Any suggestions?
Thx :cheesy:
adrianallen99
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Have you considered trading a different market/indices. The nasdaq 100, although a different kettle of fish, might be worth a look.
It is easy to get stopped out on the dow, very quickly.
It is easy to get stopped out on the dow, very quickly.
i've tried looking at the ftse first, found that was just too boring for me. Then also the cac and dax but was told to stick to one index at the moment as i am only just starting out and the best one would be the dow as i will prob end up trading that anyway. Well im still in the learning period so i might try the nasdaq. The only thing is i don't wanna spread myself too thin and have to learn a whole new index but you don't know till you've tried hey!
Thx :cheesy:
Thx :cheesy:
Just checkin in like i said i would. Not doing bad, was up 100 points at the beginning of the week with trades on Monday and Tuesday but i didn't trade Wednesday, wasn't sure what was going to happen. Went long yesterday at 10510 when i thought it would rally back to at least 10550. So am currently down 35 points. The drop on Wednesday baffed me! I did not see that coming! Im lucky i stayed out but i'd say that is due solely to luck!
Can someone tell me what indicators there were to see that drop if there were any? Also is the dow bull run coming to a top? Looking at the 3 month graph, it looks like a top, momentum is negative now and RSI has hit the 0 line. Also the price movements over the past few weeks have come back to 10400-10500 even after hitting a new high.
Thanks :cheesy:
Can someone tell me what indicators there were to see that drop if there were any? Also is the dow bull run coming to a top? Looking at the 3 month graph, it looks like a top, momentum is negative now and RSI has hit the 0 line. Also the price movements over the past few weeks have come back to 10400-10500 even after hitting a new high.
Thanks :cheesy:
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