Do you have an "edge" in your trading?

[Citizen2007]

I read a quote somewhere, not sure by whom,

The more i rely on luck, the less i seem to have it .

 

[advfntrader]

no one has an edge on here. I can almost guarantee it ! they may "think" they have an edge but they don't. they may use sensible risk / reward, MM etc. PA, Support / resistance but this can't be PROVED to be an edge

 

[Black Swan]

Mark Douglas defines what the word "edge" means.

An edge "is nothing more than a higher probability of one thing happening over another."

ENDEX.

 

[Christiaan]

please black swan you have no idea what you are talking about as usual.Why don't you move to another forum

 

[Black Swan]

Oh and another thing, it's not like I'm some nutty disciple of his, he just made a lot of sesne to me a couple of years back whilst finding my feet in this industry. IMO unless you accept that you havn't got a fookin clue where price is going next, and can only base your judgement on past probabilities and match your expectancies likewise, you're doomed to failure..

Here's his 5 truths (for the thousandth time of posting on 'ere no doubt)

.Anything can happen
.You don't need to Know what is going to happen next in order to make money
.There is a Random Distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge
.An Edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
.Every moment in the market is Unique

 

[meanreversion]

He's quoting Mark Douglas - how does this mean that he (Swan) doesn't know what he is talking about? That's logically inconsistent.

 

[robster970]

I read a quote somewhere, not sure by whom,

The more i rely on luck, the less i seem to have it .

That's similar to one from a golfer (I forget who).

The more I practise, the luckier I get!

 

[meanreversion]

.Anything can happen
.You don't need to Know what is going to happen next in order to make money
.There is a Random Distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge
.An Edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
.Every moment in the market is Unique

You need to really think these over for them to sink in. For example, "anything can happen".. for me that's aimed at people who enter a trade ASSUMING it's going to work, i.e. they completely ignore the possibility that it might not work. An example would be "we all know Treasuries are about to collapse .."

 

[Christiaan]

He's quoting Mark Douglas - how does this mean that he (Swan) doesn't know what he is talking about? That's logically inconsistent.


because he is stupid and unless he quotes somebody he really has no idea what he is talking about.

 

[6am]

no one has an edge on here. I can almost guarantee it!

I know at least one person who definitely has an edge. Check out "CMC Markets owner answers your questions" for a clue

 

[meanreversion]

And as for edge relating to probability, it's possible to design a fairly simple mechanical trading system (e.g. using moving average crossover on EUR/USD) which will make money over time. This represents a statistical edge, which may or may not persist in the future.

Another edge is to identify cognitive biases prevalent amongst investors (those traits which cause most traders to lose money) and then to trade a different way altogether.

 

[Splitlink]

no one has an edge on here. I can almost guarantee it ! they may "think" they have an edge but they don't. they may use sensible risk / reward, MM etc. PA, Support / resistance but this can't be PROVED to be an edge

I'm sure that I don't have one, I know what I like to do but that's all. Sometimes my trades work and sometimes they don't. When they don't I exit ASAP. If that's my edge, so be it.

 

[Hilarymannah]

Howard asked folk to post "their" edges,....haven't seen any yet, maybe ya'll can't trade ?

 

[advfntrader]

from his profile....."Black Swan has not made any friends yet" LOL

 

[DionysusToast]

Would you recognise one Hilarity?

 

[meanreversion]

Thread becoming quite lulzy now

 

[Hilarymannah]

Would you recognise one Hilarity?

From someone who uses the name of a "God" as a pseudonym,..me thinks you and your ego ought to wind their necks in,...
Maybe why you're such a crap trader,...just saying !!
:clap:

 

[Hilarymannah]

A white horse walks into a bar,.....
the barman says,......hey, there's a drink named after you,.....
The horse says,......what,.. ERIC !!

TaDAAAAAA

 

[Black Swan]

Howard asked folk to post "their" edges,....haven't seen any yet, maybe ya'll can't trade ?

Who cba to fully answer such a stoopid (on so many levels) question..I mean really..not like it hasn't been done to death eh?

 

[Black Swan]

from his profile....."Black Swan has not made any friends yet" LOL

I always *reject* them...because it's such a saddo feature..