Daily Dax

[mark twain uk]

Am I the only one who is going short? I went short yesterday at 7778 cash, added at 7818 before the close, added again at 7850, if it gets to 7900 without a pull back I will be down 122+82+50=254 points, it's tough being a bear on DAX.

Yesterday at 14:30 it stood at 7672, this morning it reached 7858, that's 184 points in just a few hours, if it carries on like this then it would be that capitulation/exhaustion/whatever phase that would put in a top of some sorts. But then again, it would not surprise me if it put on another 1000 points from here, there does not have to be any logic in this, with hedge funds flushed with cash doing about half of all the trades, if all of them decide to go long then everything is possible

 

[shortorlong]

Am I the only one who is going short? I went short yesterday at 7778 cash, added at 7818 before the close, added again at 7850, if it gets to 7900 without a pull back I will be down 122+82+50=254 points, it's tough being a bear on DAX

expected some retracement this morning .. but nothing .. sitting on the sidelines having been stopped out last night .. ouch .. and I mean ouch

 

[catracho]

expected some retracement this morning .. but nothing .. sitting on the sidelines having been stopped out last night .. ouch .. and I mean ouch

yes little or no retracement probably means another jump higher later in the session..7900 - then a pullback..ie more than 10 points!!

 

[firewalker99]

Am I the only one who is going short? I went short yesterday at 7778 cash, added at 7818 before the close, added again at 7850, if it gets to 7900 without a pull back I will be down 122+82+50=254 points, it's tough being a bear on DAX.

Yesterday at 14:30 it stood at 7672, this morning it reached 7858, that's 184 points in just a few hours, if it carries on like this then it would be that capitulation/exhaustion/whatever phase that would put in a top of some sorts. But then again, it would not surprise me if it put on another 1000 points from here, there does not have to be any logic in this, with hedge funds flushed with cash doing about half of all the trades, if all of them decide to go long then everything is possible

I think you'll be lucky if it pullsback to 7800... be careful though, this can runaway before you know it

 

[firewalker99]

expected some retracement this morning .. but nothing .. sitting on the sidelines having been stopped out last night .. ouch .. and I mean ouch

opening gap to the upside fairly predictable considering yesterday's PM strength (mainly from US)...

 

[mark twain uk]

opening gap to the upside fairly predictable considering yesterday's PM strength (mainly from US)...

I don't think the opening gap up was that predictable, it would have been influenced by what happened overnight in Asia, as it turned up the chinese market fell but by only 1.6% whilst the rest of the asian markets went up

 

[mark twain uk]

I think you'll be lucky if it pullsback to 7800... be careful though, this can runaway before you know it

I have the same 7800 target for a pull back, but I would close half at 7810, just in case

 

[Jbat001]

Am I the only one who is going short? I went short yesterday at 7778 cash, added at 7818 before the close, added again at 7850, if it gets to 7900 without a pull back I will be down 122+82+50=254 points, it's tough being a bear on DAX.

The trend is your friend. I know it's a bloody obvious point, but trying to call tops and bottoms is near impossible, and generally only results in frustration and loss of capital. Better to stake a reasonable amount with a loose stoploss and let the ups and downs work themselves out. Stick your breakeven stop in when there's enough clear blue water between your entry price and the market, and let your bets run...

 

[mark twain uk]

The trend is your friend. I know it's a bloody obvious point, but trying to call tops and bottoms is near impossible, and generally only results in frustration and loss of capital. Better to stake a reasonable amount with a loose stoploss and let the ups and downs work themselves out. Stick your breakeven stop in when there's enough clear blue water between your entry price and the market, and let your bets run...

All valid points but I got a bit complacent after a good run and thought I would try my luck. In this business there is only one luck, of the bad variety. I am still short and watch the development with a mixture of amusement and bewilderement.

 

[Jbat001]

All valid points but I got a bit complacent after a good run and thought I would try my luck. In this business there is only one luck, of the bad variety. I am still short and watch the development with a mixture of amusement and bewilderement.

Are you spreadbetting? I wouldn't be short DAX for all the tea in China right now! While there are of course several possible outcomes, it still seems to be motoring, and there is still plenty of decent upside on this yet.

 

[free4440273]

All valid points but I got a bit complacent after a good run and thought I would try my luck. In this business there is only one luck, of the bad variety. I am still short and watch the development with a mixture of amusement and bewilderement.

...you are probably trading short on 'fundamentals', much like myself, and in that you would be right. but nevertheless sometimes you can't buck the trend (i made a mistake shorting the dow in the evening yesterday and my position is still open). i don't want to put words into your mouth, so do correct me if i am wrong. certainly, on fundamentals i am short also. but these markets are most peculiar...:|

 

[mark twain uk]

...you are probably trading short on 'fundamentals', much like myself, and in that you would be right. but nevertheless sometimes you can't buck the trend (i made a mistake shorting the dow in the evening yesterday and my position is still open). i don't want to put words into your mouth, so do correct me if i am wrong. certainly, on fundamentals i am short also. but these markets are most peculiar...:|

I am trading on charts and common sense, but it seems that the markets are determined to burn all the bears by not allowing them any pull back, they just steam ahead regardless. Oh well, it's only money, I am still short and will probably stay put for a little longer, there has to be a pull back, I don't want to get out at the top.

 

[CJIA]

Dax looks a bit worried about the coming news,after saying that it probably make another new high with me being short.
I would like to say that the bears are back in town but they don't seem to party a lot at the moment.I've started early.

 

[firewalker99]

I am trading on charts and common sense, but it seems that the markets are determined to burn all the bears by not allowing them any pull back, they just steam ahead regardless. Oh well, it's only money, I am still short and will probably stay put for a little longer, there has to be a pull back, I don't want to get out at the top.

"There has to be" has made me lose more money than I imagined in the past.
Just a friendly warning You know the saying: the markets can stay irrational...

 

[mark twain uk]

"There has to be" has made me lose more money than I imagined in the past.
Just a friendly warning You know the saying: the markets can stay irrational...

I know, I know, I've been doing this for five years now, and made all the mistakes that could be made, learnt from most of them, there seems to be one final one to learn, and that is to close out losing positions immediately, without hesitation, repetition or deviation. All I had to do was to close out yesterday at a small loss.

 

[rols]

I know, I know, I've been doing this for five years now, and made all the mistakes that could be made, learnt from most of them, there seems to be one final one to learn, and that is to close out losing positions immediately, without hesitation, repetition or deviation. All I had to do was to close out yesterday at a small loss.

GOLD seems to be a little perky all of a sudden? Up 4 USD in 2 hours!

In my experience pain is good. Usually a turning point. Discomfort makes for a good entry
and MM for a good exit.

 

[mark twain uk]

GOLD seems to be a little perky all of a sudden? Up 4 USD in 2 hours!

In my experience pain is good. Usually a turning point. Discomfort makes for a good entry
and MM for a good exit.

I know, I just closed a gold long from yesterday for +80 points, again a typical mistake, I close a winning position to keep open a losing one, but I need the assurance of the +80 points in the bank to at least make up some of the losses on the rest of my shorts.

 

[hobby]

Just what is it with the Dax?!

Anyone care to suggest why it's been the strongest indice of all the global developed countries....ie what makes the companies contained within it so seemingly bulletproof to any hint of a correction?

You'd think it ought to track the Dow more or less on a 0.57ish ratio...ie Dow up 100, Dax up 57ish ....seems to be the other way round!

Puzzles the hell outta me. :?:

 

[free4440273]

...it's certainly the most 'resilient' of the European indices (cac, ftse). why, i haven't a clue either. perhaps the Germans build the index like the way they do their cars

 

[dcraig1]

It seems that over a five year period, one of the front runners is the All Ords

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart7:symbol=^gdaxi;range=5y;compare=^aord+^gspc+^ixic+^dji;indicator=split+dividend+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

NAZ and DAX are about equal. DAX has had a lot of catching up to do.

Just what is it with the Dax?!

Anyone care to suggest why it's been the strongest indice of all the global developed countries....ie what makes the companies contained within it so seemingly bulletproof to any hint of a correction?

You'd think it ought to track the Dow more or less on a 0.57ish ratio...ie Dow up 100, Dax up 57ish ....seems to be the other way round!

Puzzles the hell outta me. :?: