Daily Dax

[daxdaytrader]

I got on the upside of that rally, to cover a potential breakout, caught it too late really, so scratched it break-even.

There does seem to still be some slight drift upwards overall. A lot of vol traded around 95 area tho.

It may well need a good tug off this area to break, just like you say.

 

[daxdaytrader]

I turned away to talk briefly to a friend this afternoon, and when I looked back saw the later move up on raised volume, with one of my best signals. Had been trying to catch some upside all day!

The move to around 5916 should of been predicted as we had this area of res last week, it's a well traded price.

Chart of FDAX vs FTSE attached.

 

[daxdaytrader]

Heavy trading volume yesterday of 5890-95 support level, and broke (predictably!) to 5915 resistance level.

We are at the top of price envelope and meeting resistance. Price probed down in 5875 area yesterday and closed with a narrow range, suggesting bulls are weak. There is a prior high at 5925, so look for volume trading the 5915-25 range short.

Bear outlook is for pullback to 5850ish.

 

[Not Today]

Hi daxdaytraderHow do you post a thumbnail of your charts straight into your post?

thanks NT

 

[daxdaytrader]

Hi daxdaytraderHow do you post a thumbnail of your charts straight into your post?

thanks NT

I think you just attach a jpg file in the advanced reply to.

 

[daxdaytrader]

Next option trade may be to sell a 5950 when we get up into some res. But there seem to be some very large volumes trading again as yesterday.

Possible smart money is switching to bullish? What do you think, is it selling off as we might more reasonable expect?

 

[adamusman]

Heavy trading volume yesterday of 5890-95 support level, and broke (predictably!) to 5915 resistance level.

We are at the top of price envelope and meeting resistance. Price probed down in 5875 area yesterday and closed with a narrow range, suggesting bulls are weak. There is a prior high at 5925, so look for volume trading the 5915-25 range short.

Bear outlook is for pullback to 5850ish.

dax pullback to 5800ish

 

[daxdaytrader]

Hi Adam,

foale saw the 5925 a few posts back, it was good for a short early this morning, but with it now broken, and these large volumes again this morning, it looks like a large pullback is now very unlikely. But it is till worth considering that these volumes are longer term trades closing out of long positions. I've covered this posibility, but prematurely. They don't look like typical distributions though, which may indicate new long positions being taken. I tried to hedge for this, but missed my setup.

Perhaps you would be so kind to share your outlook, and strategy for the next few days?

 

[firewalker99]

futures contract rollover

I've noticed the dec contract has about a 50 point discrepancy, why is that? It means recalculating all the previous S/R levels...

 

[adamusman]

Hi Adam,

foale saw the 5925 a few posts back, it was good for a short early this morning, but with it now broken, and these large volumes again this morning, it looks like a large pullback is now very unlikely. But it is till worth considering that these volumes are longer term trades closing out of long positions. I've covered this posibility, but prematurely. They don't look like typical distributions though, which may indicate new long positions being taken. I tried to hedge for this, but missed my setup.

Perhaps you would be so kind to share your outlook, and strategy for the next few days?

thank you for your reply

 

[foale]

It is confused thats for sure..
I am looking for a pull back to 5900 in the first instance possibly 5890
and will make a decision then as to the subsequent likely direction.

Certainly a lot of sellers around to at least contain things. I felt that they realised that 5900 was not the right area to stage the next battle.

If we retrace to 5890-5900 then see the highs again..I will be a bull of course..

 

[daxdaytrader]

I've noticed the dec contract has about a 50 point discrepancy, why is that? It means recalculating all the previous S/R levels...

I guess they drift a little. Use the underlying index as the benchmark for levels, or use a continuous contract chart for the futures. In Trader Workstation you can plot multiple instruments on a single chart.

 

[daxdaytrader]

It is confused thats for sure..
I am looking for a pull back to 5900 in the first instance possibly 5890
and will make a decision then as to the subsequent likely direction.

Certainly a lot of sellers around to at least contain things. I felt that they realised that 5900 was not the right area to stage the next battle.

If we retrace to 5890-5900 then see the highs again..I will be a bull of course..

That's a fair analysis IMO foale, that 5890-5900 was heavy area yesterday. I thought it might make a breakdown yesterday, but the rejection was very strong.

I'm not sure how to tell what of the volume is just due to rollover shifts. Large institutional trades could be hiding a shift in their position in those volumes. Of course it has to show up in the price action eventually.

If they did sell the 5900 area then of course they will hold down for profits. Let's look for some accumulation off that area if we get down there. Good to see we broke the 25s and 15s again. This should undermine confidence in the upmove.

 

[daxdaytrader]

Some key prices, note doji at 5925ish.

 

[daxdaytrader]

Shoulders on the 50% fib.

 

[foale]

1:30 figures and now dow back to 10500 taken us back to that support level just under 5900
I have to say I do see this holding initially although a break later in the US session could see 5850 open up in the dax futures or first thing tomorrow.

Going to let this play out a bit..rather than second quess until it becomes a bit clearer

 

[daxdaytrader]

Props to you foale. I just sold my put for a loss, combination of impatience and stress. I need a rest!

 

[daxdaytrader]

got long at 5904.5, signal was for 5900 - my last trade today I think...

 

[firewalker99]

got long at 5904.5, signal was for 5900 - my last trade today I think...

long at 5902 for me

 

[foale]

Good morning ...everyone still long?

We need to hold here (5926)or its back to 5908-10 quite quickly