Daily Dax

Any thoughts on today guys...
I feel a break out of this area could see us back up to 5820-25 area
Going to need some help from US futures..

Dont see 5800 itself as any particular ceiling...but we could turn down from here...

Feels like a usual friday morning already...so will probably take all day to play out...
expect I will be looking elsewhere for excitment today...
 
Yep, nothing interesting so far, had 3 small trades. Yestraday was great. Wish we had more days like this.
 
I was thinking we would get back to 5825 yesterday, as it was significant before, but I am often ahead of the plot.
 
might get up to 5825 but I have bailed longs at 5810
bird in the hand...etc
 
foale said:
might get up to 5825 but I have bailed longs at 5810
bird in the hand...etc
Click to expand...

Looking back two days, I anticipated price to found slight resistance at 5810-5815 zone...
seems like it's more than slight resistance looking at the double top forming
 
new dec contract?

I was wondering when people are switching to the next contract, I suppose it will be on next friday, expiration day but strangely enough if you look at volume on the NQ, the dec '06 contract is allready being traded much more than the sep '06...
 
I usually switch cons on last day or day before.

I'm long couple 5750 calls, indications bullish for me, but rollover week might change the behaviour, so I don't want a lot of downside risk.
 
Nice rally today (+100), so wish I bought the straight future now - obvious the smart money was buying this morning, but also heavy profit taking at the end of the session.

Fib level at 5825 predicted end of last week hit. I'll hold my long calls unless 5800 breaks tomorrow. If 5800 holds, looking to hold one to 5860s.
 

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Lots of upside penetration yesterday, and heavy traded 5825, suggest there may be plenty of bulls around? I'll try to hold a long.
 
news

I've noticed several times that the DAX reacts to news minutes before the actual release... does anybody have an explanation for this?

Another question: I look at forexfactory and marketwatch to avoid news releases... but specific German related news isn't always indicated, does anybody have a better suggestion?
 
Perhaps you're just observing the effect of the market knowing the news is going to come out?

I'm still long a 5750 call - starting to break the 7 day moving average. Support at 5825 needs to hold.
 
Everyone sems quite Bullish ...

I am not convinced..

Several of my time frames look over bought.

We might be within 24 hours of the Dax index over taking the Ftse index..another warning sign for me..
It is if course September..which has been pump and dump month in the past.
Expirys coming up...

Anyone else see some ominous warning signs...or is everyone gungho its 6000 here we come ?
 
I'm still holding a 5750 call, may dump it tomorrow, but yes it is tempting to think we'll break upwards some more with all the volume on today - Dow Theory says volume supports a move right? But I have not done my EOD work yet, but unlike yesterday, there were no volume spikes on the later hights, suggesting maybe that yesterdays bullish mood has weakened. The distribution didn't look very strong in the afternoon, but I still suspect the move up beyond 80 is weak.

I added a put on 5900, with all this volatility, I'm sure it won't be at 5900 by Friday, and am ready for some pullback tomorrow should it come. This evenings trade was the most active I've seen for a while, and tends to make one suspect an extreme move is on its way, so hedging a necessity IMO.
 
Liquidated my long position. Seems to be a H&S formation and change in order flow between 10.30 and 11.00 cet. Hoping my put 5900 pays off this morning.
 
I still feel its a reversal here allbeit a slow one....5925 would change my mind though..
 
It is slow, I had a couple of goes buying support - got wacked down by that later high volume move. Waste of money, should of been more patient. Playing down through the fibs, so I'll hold onto my put.

If it can't break the 5890 now, maybe it'll head south, won't be surprised if we have to wait for US opening bell to shift.
 

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I thought this little rally in the last hour might take us back up over 5900. If this fails 5850 the near term target imo..

Anyone noticed how the Dax index now higher than the FTSE for part of today...
doesnt that historically indicates a subsequent fall... over time, in both indexes

Anyone got a comparison graph handy going back a few years...
 
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