CTAinvesor Market Analysis

At the Open. Reaching key technical levels.

09:10CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The start of the day sees majors more or less where they were vs the USD yesterday, so no big change for the time being, although some bounces have been seen overnight. However, it is not how the day starts what I'm looking at, is how we will finish it. Basically, because there are certain technical aspects that we need to monitor for today:

- EUR/USD is trading near the 50% retracement of the last upleg @ 1.3435.
- GBP/USD is trading very near a key support line @ 1.5825
- Gold is close to the neckline of a long pattern @ $1,315

If the above levels hold, at least for a first attempt, then the USD will definitely correct for good for a while, particularly in USD/CHF and USD/JPY where the moves are more than just technical, they start to be somewhat an aberration, and it just amazes me, because it means there are many retail traders making loads of money, as the majority of retailers keep LONG the pairs! (A very unusual situation, if you ask me).

Let me conclude this opening post with the situation in the retail front on long/short ratio positioning. Welcome to the real-time market analysis show @ CTAinvestor.com.

Nov 17, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
78.02% 21.98%
2. XAU/USD
73.38% 26.62%
3. USD/CHF
68.95% 31.05%
4. USD/CAD
59.80% 40.20%
5. AUD/USD
50.56% 49.44%
6. EUR/USD
46.28% 53.72%
7. GBP/USD
44.19% 55.81%
 
Hi Pboyles,

honestly, I had not replied to you because I had not seen your posts, I did not expect this type of question in this thread, so please apologies for the delay, 'ain't good for the image' as you well said.

investorseurope.com and investors-europe.com are two websites of the same broker, Investors Europe, based out in Gibraltar. The sites are not a clone one to the other, so I kindly ask you to remove that statement. The difference, and hence the '-' sign in one of the names, is that investorseurope (altogether) is the stocks/futures brokerage, and the one with the '-' is basically focused on FX, allowing traders to use MT4 and CNX for that matter. The one linked to CTAinvestor.com, where I act as the editor and chief market analyst, is investors-europe.com (with '-').

Hope this clears the issue, and again, sorry for the late reply.

Tony
pboyles said:
Seeing as how you won't provide any explanation it is only fair to warn people that investors-Europe.com could well be a clone of a regulated Gibraltar broker. This is a common scam where the website is cloned with a view to getting customers login details or to obtain money from new customers. Spamming forums with free analysis would be another red flag.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...ameritrade-citadel-investment-group-customers
Click to expand...
 
Extreme levels for the Day

10:17CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3627 - extreme OS 1.3379
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6015 - extreme OS 1.5763
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.917 - extreme OS 82.796
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0030 - extreme OS 0.9866
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9876 - extreme OS 0.9646
 
FX retailers' positioning at this hour

13:22CET

Here's how thins stand in long/short retail ratio positions. I still don't get it with EUR and GBP after yesterday's losses, there must be a lot of people making money these days...Thankfully, XAU and AUD are long in majority, so hope the Europeans will follow there as well. What I also don't like is the little change in USD/CHF longs despite the recent rally, something's fishy there.
Nov 17, 2010 13:20 GMT+01

1. USD/JPY
78.04% 21.96%
2. XAU/USD
73.48% 26.52%
3. USD/CHF
68.69% 31.31%
4. USD/CAD
60.88% 39.12%
5. AUD/USD
50.20% 49.80%
6. EUR/USD
47.24% 52.76%
7. GBP/USD
44.65% 55.35%
 
At the Close. The USD advance comes to a halt.

18:20CET

The USD has not been able to continue its progress vs the majors, and this can just be good news if there is to be a bigger USD upmove, because any corrections will mean healthier upmoves if/when they come. The corrections thus far have not been impressive, but have in any case put a brake on the USD advance, particularly in USD/CHF, where the unit has dived sub-0.99, correcting off some of its recent overbought status. EUR/USD important resistance line (short-term) is coming in @ 1.3560, and seems it won't be taken out on a first attempt, so a fast short can be tried there for some wishes of success.

As a recap, take a look below at how FX retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour. I'm Tony Juste, CMA of CTAinvestor.com, thanks for watching this blog, I'll see you all tomorrow.

Nov 17, 2010 18:20 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
77.23% 22.77%
2. XAU/USD
75.31% 24.69%
3. USD/CHF
70.34% 29.66%
4. USD/CAD
60.58% 39.42%
5. AUD/USD
50.66% 49.34%
6. EUR/USD
46.87% 53.13%
7. GBP/USD
43.49% 56.51%
 
At the Open. Expected correction.

09:05CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Well, at last we've had it, I mean the USD correction. The leader on this round keeps being the USD/CHF, who alerted us of the USD overbought status and who triggered the first short signals yesterday. The correction, although only modest, serves to create a better picture for any future USD advance to come, for many longs have squared, therefore if they were to re-start their positions, they would do so from a fresh start.

Interesting to note today that Gold is testing the broken support line, now resistance line @ 1,357, I feel that taking shorts here with a stop above 1,365 is a good trading idea, still aiming at that neckline of the bigger formation @ 1,315 to be tested. Honestly, I do not know whether this correction will last or not, but when it comes to gold it has been more than reasonable in terms of price.

As for the other majors, only interest thus far in EUR/USD, who has corrected mildly to 1.36, and where sell orders are reported around 1.3620-25, and I have to say that taking a short there looks good to me. Cable is stubbornly low this morning, only a EUR and CHF affair it seems.

To conclude this opening post, let me give you how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour. Long/Short ratio provided below.

Nov 18, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100

1. XAU/USD
76.11% 23.89%
2. USD/JPY
75.94% 24.06%
3. USD/CHF
68.78% 31.22%
4. USD/CAD
60.55% 39.45%
5. AUD/USD
51.86% 48.14%
6. EUR/USD
47.62% 52.38%
7. GBP/USD
46.26% 53.74%
 
Extreme levels for the Day

09:27CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3662 - extreme OS 1.3442
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6022 - extreme OS 1.5796
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.785 - extreme OS 82.686
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9982 - extreme OS 0.9824
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9915 - extreme OS 0.9717
 
At the Close. Correction....or something else?

18:00CET

It was more or less expected that after the USD moves seen in recent days, sooner or later we would have a day where things would at least come to a halt, thus it would then be time for renewed speculation on what would happen next. Well, that projected day was/is today, and thus we have to analyze things a bit more in detail to try to guess where we are headed from here.

First, EUR/USD broke (and remains above) the 1.3570 resistance level, and moved past 1.3660 second important resistance, where it failed to advance further and lost ground. Right now is testing the intermediate level 1.3615/20. Only on a clean break of 1.3750 should USD bulls have a tough time in defending their positions in my opinion.

Second, USD/CHF and USD/JPY, despite their modest sell-offs in the morning, have recovered all lost ground and in the case of USD/CHF, we've hit parity for first time in many months, at the time the unit was testing an important short-term dynamic resistance line, therefore shorts have taken control and we're off by 50 pips and I'm afraid there is more to come, unless EUR/CHF inverted SHS pattern comes to life faster thane expected, but that's not for me to decide. FOr the time being, selling USD/CHF looks like a good strategy if you don't like the USD-long way.

Third, Cable and Aussie/Gold. Cable is very stubborn today, and it's refusing to go down even a pip, and the 1.5975 resistance has become now tough support. As for AUD/USD and Gold, the fact that the latter has a key dynamic resistance line (former key and primary uptrend line) @ $1,358 which is still holding a first pullback attempt, is making the unit less active than its peers today, with 0.99 so far capping the upside, but I would wait to see if that level holds, for it marks 38.2% of the latest downleg, and a break exposes 0.9950 (50%) and more importantly 1.0005 (61.8%).

With this in mind, let's have a last look at how retail traders are doing at this hour on their long/short ratio. Still too many longs in EUR and GBP pairs, I still don't feel comfortable with that...

Nov 18, 2010 18:00 GMT+01h

1. USD/JPY
75.73% 24.27%
2. XAU/USD
75.31% 24.69%
3. USD/CHF
70.48% 29.52%
4. USD/CAD
62.15% 37.85%
5. AUD/USD
50.11% 49.89%
6. EUR/USD
46.76% 53.24%
7. GBP/USD
41.70% 58.30%
 
At the Open. Europeans vs USD game.

09:27CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. It's a clear old-fashioned style market, with the 'real' majors (take out the JPY for this matter) taking the lead in the market and causing the most problems to the USD, which, by the way, is keeping itself rather afloat vs the AUD. Speaking of this pair, there is the confluence of two important technical factors: (a) the dynamic resistance line in the $1,360 level in Gold, which is putting a brake to the advance of the unit; and (b) the fact that the AUD itself is testing very important resistance lines @ 0.99-9920, let alone the fact that above there we have the 50% retracement of the last downleg and then some more with parity Fibo.

Speaking of resistances, the key pair to watch today is Cable. The unit is testing very seriously the downtrend off the recent highs, coming in @ 1.6075 today. Whatever it happens with the line, I feel that Cable can be the driving force vs the USD in today's round, so I would pay special attention to it.

As for EUR/USD, the unit has barriers (decent) only around 1,3750 from here, so not too much to comment on it, unless we get up there. SUpport remains in the 1.3620 zone.

Before closing this opening post, let's see how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour. Long/Short ratio provided below.

Nov 19, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

1. XAU/USD
75.73% 24.27%
2. USD/JPY
75.48% 24.52%
3. USD/CHF
69.16% 30.84%
4. USD/CAD
61.18% 38.82%
5. AUD/USD
50.57% 49.43%
6. EUR/USD
47.45% 52.55%
7. GBP/USD
43.25% 56.75%
 
Extreme levels for the day

09:55CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3754 - extreme OS 1.3522 - we are close to OB
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6140 - extreme OS 1.5924
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.997 - extreme OS 82.905
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0032 - extreme OS 0.9860 - moving close to OS
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9976 - extreme OS 0.9787
 
At the Close. Good USD recovery in the end.

18:10CET

As the market seems to have gone home already (volatility has dried up in the last couple of hours), it's good to give a bit of a recap of how the situation stands at this point ahead of the next week.

The USD has made a very good comeback vs the majors after a threatening start of the day, where Cable got momentarily above a key downtrend line off recent highs (coming in @ 1.6065-70), Gold threatened the key dynamic resistance @ $1,361 and AUD/USD looked poised for further gains above 0.99, while EUR/USD was tripping above stops above 1.37 easily.

Finally, though, the next round of Fibo levels did not come to play and longs got trapped as the USD made a good comeback, gaining good ground, particularly vs the GBP and the CHF, where the effect of the rise in EUR/CHF has propelled, for almost the first time ever on my records, USD/CHF to pass from extremely OS to extremely OB in the same session, hitting 0.9880 in the morning, just to reverse course and hit 0.9990 again in the afternoon, where techs played their part and the unit went down again.

Technically speaking, there are two factors that I consider as leading at the moment: first, the key dynamic resistance line in Gold, and second, the dynamic resistance in USD/CHF, both of which have different implications for the course of the USD, and we have yet to see which one will be the key. Add to this the trendline in Cable, the most technical pair this morning, coming in @ 1.6060 on Monday and whihc will also be a key factor short-term for the USD.

Before calling it a week, please find below the retail positioning at this hour with the usual long/short ratio. I wish you a good weekend everyone and I look forward to your company on Monday again. Stay tuned to real-time trading tips @ twitter.com/ctainvestor and investors-europe.com.

Nov 19, 2010 18:00 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
75.71% 24.29%
2. XAU/USD
73.89% 26.11%
3. USD/CHF
69.29% 30.71%
4. USD/CAD
61.66% 38.34%
5. AUD/USD
51.16% 48.84%
6. EUR/USD
48.25% 51.75%
7. GBP/USD
44.54% 55.46%
 
Re: CTAinvestor.com Market Analysis

At the Open. Not quite the expected start of the week.

09:12CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The USD starts the day in the red vs the other majors in a rather unusual Monday, basically you know because of that rule of thumb that says that Mondays are good for the USD, Tuesdays are bad...All in all, the majors have gone to test (EUR and AUD) their 50% Fibo retracements of the last downleg, namely @ 1.3767 and 0.9950, from where we've had the chance to take some decent and fast pips. I believe that a second attempt to those levels will be less attractive to initiate shorts, so we better keep an eye on prices from now on rather than using those static levels again.

It is true that the USD got overbought most of last week and hence a correction should be expected, but I would not like to see the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the last downleg coming into play, as more often than not that is an indication that maybe the prevailing trend has come to an exhaustion point. Anyway, I'm ready to wait for the market to settle down a bit and then take the appropriate action, as for the time being the market remains rather aggressive for my taste.

Let me give you the FX retail positioning at this hour before leaving the opening post. Long/Short ratio below.

Nov 22, 2010 09:20 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
74.82% 25.18%
2. XAU/USD
74.76% 25.24%
3. USD/CHF
69.98% 30.02%
4. USD/CAD
63.23% 36.77%
5. AUD/USD
50.47% 49.53%
6. EUR/USD
47.02% 52.98%
7. GBP/USD
43.70% 56.30%
 
Extreme levels for the day

09:45CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3826 - extreme OS 1.3595
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6101 - extreme OS 1.5889
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.907 - extreme OS 83.015
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0025 - extreme OS 0.9845
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9982 - extreme OS 0.9793
 
In Entitlement America, The Head Of A Household Of Four Making Minimum Wage Has More Disposable Income Than A Family Making $60,000 A Year - ZeroHedge.com

09:53CET

Tonight's stunning financial piece de resistance comes from Wyatt Emerich of The Cleveland Current. In what is sure to inspire some serious ire among all those who once believed Ronald Reagan that it was the USSR that was the "Evil Empire", Emmerich analyzes disposable income and economic benefits among several key income classes and comes to the stunning (and verifiable) conclusion that "a one-parent family of three making $14,500 a year (minimum wage) has more disposable income than a family making $60,000 a year." And that excludes benefits from Supplemental Security Income disability checks. America is now a country which punishes those middle-class people who not only try to work hard, but avoid scamming the system. Not surprisingly, it is not only the richest and most audacious thieves that prosper - it is also the penny scammers at the very bottom of the economic ladder that rip off the middle class each and every day, courtesy of the world's most generous entitlement system. Perhaps if Reagan were alive today, he would wish to modify the object of his once legendary remark.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/en...um-wage-has-more-disposable-income-family-mak
 
Goldman's Take On The Irish Bailout

10:15CET

Earlier tonight, Ireland applied for conditional funding assistance and will therefore be the first Eurozone sovereign accessing the EU-IMF support framework instituted in May. The latest European Economics Analyst provides background. There are still several uncertainties surrounding the deal, including the government’s political support (a by-election is due this Thursday), and negotiations on the banks. The yield spread between 5-yr Irish government bonds and their German counterparts has fallen by around 100bp from the 600bp highs reached on 11 November. At this point, we see scope only for a further 50bp tightening. That said, we think that this represents an important step towards a resolution of EMU sovereign woes, and a gradual relaxation of the risk premium that has built up in Italy and Spain, and in Eastern Europe. - Goldman Sachs

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldmans-take-irish-bailout
 
DAILY FX TRADING TIPS

10:25CET

The following strategies are valid for the current day only, and are based on prices not yet hit when the tip is released, so we’re basically working with limit orders. Once the trigger has been activated and either stop or limit have been hit, trade is no longer valid. End of day should see all positions squared regardless of price.

DATE: MONDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2010

PAIR ACTION ENTRY STOP LIMIT
EUR/USD SELL 1.3760 1.3790 1.3670
EURUSD BUY 1.3670 1.3610 1.3920
GBP/USD SELL 1.6110 1.6180 1.6020
USD/JPY BUY 82.90 82.40 83.90
USD/CHF BUY 0.9870 0.9830 0.9970
USD/CHF SELL 0.9995 1.0025 0.9890
 
TRADE IDEA: SELL GBP/USD @ 1.6015, stop 1.6065, target 1.5945

12:53CET

As we get a more normal 'Monday market', now it's time to go with this approach. Using AUD/USD here @ 0.9910 for shorts is also OK.
 
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