CTAinvesor Market Analysis

FX retail positioning at this hour

14:57CET

Despite its rally of alte, the USD positioning still very much overwhelmingly long, good to see AUD back above 40% longs though.
Nov 3, 2010 14:40 GMT+0100
READING %LONG/%SHORT

1. AUD/USD
41.13% 58.87%
2. EUR/CHF
58.45% 41.55%
3. EUR/GBP
44.08% 55.92%
4. EUR/JPY
59.62% 40.38%
5. EUR/USD
37.45% 62.55%
6. GBP/JPY
65.90% 34.10%
7. GBP/USD
39.24% 60.76%
8. USD/CAD
64.37% 35.63%
9. USD/CHF
73.62% 26.38%
10. USD/JPY
82.47% 17.53%
 
At the Close. The typical FOMC shake-up.

21:05CET

In what it can only be described as the usual up-down-and-around following the FOMC rate decision and statement, the USD has failed to capitalize on the good initial reaction, where we saw EUR/USD down to 1.40, Gold tanking to 1,328 and AUD/USD down to 0.9900, just to reverse course by over 100 pips at the time of this writing, AUD new record highs on print, and Gold @ 1,347, while GBP/USD is lacking some steam and just above 1.61 barely.

It is interesting to note that the QE2 plan is far lighter than initially anticipated, as ZeroHedge reports:

"FOMC Announcement: $600 Billion, $75 Billion/Month, $110 Billion Including QE Lite, 35% SOMA Limit Removed, $27.5 Billion Weekly POMO, On Run Rate To Monetize Entire Budget Deficit",

but let's remember that $600Bln is far less than the 1-2Tln expected by the market. Therefore, I can only say that the current market action responds more to a final shake up of any USD long remaining outhere, to make everyone believe the USD is doomed, confirm the daily triggers in 2-3 days (perhaps Friday is the day now), and then turn things for good. I would refrain from calling for a new sustained downleg in USD from here, and will remain to do no matter the price action that follows. I do still believe 1.30 has more odds to print than 1.45-50 in EUR/USD benchmark.

Below you'll find how retail positioning is doing at this hour, no real change at this point...I'm Tony Juste, look forward to your company tomorrow. Goodnight.



Nov 3, 2010 21:00 GMT+0100
READING %LONG / %SHORT

1. AUD/USD
40.44% 59.56%
2. EUR/CHF
58.68% 41.32%
3. EUR/GBP
47.11% 52.89%
4. EUR/JPY
56.58% 43.42%
5. EUR/USD
39.45% 60.55%
6. GBP/JPY
65.50% 34.50%
7. GBP/USD
42.50% 57.50%
8. USD/CAD
65.59% 34.41%
9. USD/CHF
71.78% 28.22%
10. USD/JPY
80.33% 19.67%
 
At the Open. Retail positions may prove me right very soon.

09:10CET

It's an odd feeling to say this, but if what we see below is the norm for today, despite the USD depreciation overnight, I think we may be in for a big shakeup, perhaps not today, but certainly tomorrow would be a great day to do so. Retail positioning has increased the % shorts to some real degree despite the fact that the USD finished the day lower vs the majors...and that's a good sign. Add to that the fact that despite AUD and EUR rally, Gold has not been able to surpass the 1,350 mark, which means that we are seeing (possibly) a 'selling climax' to liquidate the hopes of any USD longs around, just to shake things big time soon.

Technically speaking, I would recommend following the hourly divergences showing in EUR, CHF and AUD, for they should at least be able to give some intraday pips ahead of tomorrow's (very key as I see it) NFP data.

Below you find how things stand in FX retail-losers positioning, see the huge increase in GBP/USD longs.

Nov 4, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100
READING %LONG / %SHORT

1. AUD/USD
41.95% 58.05%
2. EUR/CHF
57.22% 42.78%
3. EUR/GBP
46.73% 53.27%
4. EUR/JPY
58.89% 41.11%
5. EUR/USD
43.15% 56.85%
6. GBP/JPY
68.38% 31.62%
7. GBP/USD
47.33% 52.67%
8. USD/CAD
64.61% 35.39%
9. USD/CHF
70.42% 29.58%
10. USD/JPY
80.92% 19.08%
 
Extreme levels for the day
10:22CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.4244 - extreme OS 1.3986 - unit has hit extreme OB level already, and broken above in 15m as well...
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6239 - extreme OS 1.5978
USD/JPY - extreme OB 81.747 - extreme OS 80.397
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9824 - extreme OS 0.9629
AUD/USD - extreme OB 1.0128 - extreme OS 0.9933

Real-time levels update on twitter www.twitter.com/ctainvestor
 
At the Close. USD looking very weak ahead of NFP tomorrow.

18:37CET

The USD is finishing the day very weak vs the majors, particularly AUD and GBP, and there is little help for it entering into tomorrow's NFP data, especially now that Gold is aiming at its historical highs, which keeps driving prices higher vs the USD. Lots of criticism for the FEd re: the QE2 program, but the fact is that only the Brazilians have decided to take some action and intervene in the market to stop the USD decline.

I've started reading about possible EUR targets to the upside, and the real thing is that, despite what my indicators show, if the market wants to play around with techs, they may well send the USD way lower in order to push retailers to extreme again. I leave you the retail positioning at this hour for you to analyze how things stand....I don't get it that with such a current rise in USD shorts prices have gone so dramatically fast against the USD today.... I'm Tony Juste, thanks for being there, speak to you tomorrow. You can keep track of my real-time tips @ www.twitter.com/ctainvestor or a detailed analysis in www.investors-europe.com.

Nov 4, 2010 18:20 GMT+0100
READING %LONG / %SHORT

1. AUD/USD
42.69% 57.31%
2. EUR/CHF
55.64% 44.36%
3. EUR/GBP
46.98% 53.02%
4. EUR/JPY
57.61% 42.39%
5. EUR/USD
45.02% 54.98%
6. GBP/JPY
66.01% 33.99%
7. GBP/USD
41.80% 58.20%
8. USD/CAD
66.34% 33.66%
9. USD/CHF
65.79% 34.21%
10. USD/JPY
80.23% 19.77%
 
At the Open. EUR/USD retail positioning shifts for good.

09:18CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. I believe most of you wanted me to start the week commenting on the (ever distorted) NFP numbers and the USD reaction, but that would be doing what everyone else is and I honestly find it rather boring. Instead, I've been monitoring rather closely the retail activity after the failure @ 1.43 in Euro and 1.63 in Cable and what I've found is that they've been trapped once more into the arms of the big bear, who lied to them when made they them believe 1.45 was next target instead of looking at techs properly.

There is but one pair that remains healthy when it comes to market positioning and that is the AUD, but distances are shortening as well there. The shift in positioning in EUR/USD is a massive move, and if we break the dynamic line @ 1,3940-50 (the downtrend line broken a few days ago to the upside to confirm the bear trap), then we have a massive downside move in our hands, with 1.34-35 at least as a potential target. All indicators are supporting this view at present and the fact that the minor support line @ 1.3990 was broken that easily is a symptom that the market is about to crush USD shorts.

Find attached the current retail readings and you'll find it good to go long the USD (or short EUR/USD) for a bigger target. Also, take a closer look at Gold, who made a tiny extension high @ around 1,395, but has not sustained those gains and daily techs will be weighing on it very soon.

Nov 8, 2010 09:20 GMT+0100
READING %LONG/%SHORT

1. AUD/USD
43.76% 56.24%
2. EUR/CHF
56.35% 43.65%
3. EUR/GBP
39.23% 60.77%
4. EUR/JPY
63.19% 36.81%
5. EUR/USD
51.78% 48.22%
6. GBP/JPY
64.67% 35.33%
7. GBP/USD
48.10% 51.90%
8. USD/CAD
70.44% 29.56%
9. USD/CHF
70.26% 29.74%
10. USD/JPY
78.06% 21.94%
 
Extreme levels for the day

09:52CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.4177 - extreme OS 1.3860
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6314 - extreme OS 1.6043
USD/JPY - extreme OB 81.882 - extreme OS 80.590
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9732 - extreme OS 0.9510
AUD/USD - extreme OB 1.0241 - extreme OS 1.0037
 
At the Close. Retail positioning shift persists in EUR/USD.

17:57CET

The market seems to have started something new as the shift in retail positioning in EUR/USD persists and the unit loses much of its ground, although still barely holding above dynamic support line around 1.3930. The EUR case, however, still remains rather unique at the moment as the other majors still show net long-USD positioning on them. The day is not over yet, but with Tuesday being a USD-selling day, we may not be over of this round against the USD if the market remains as it is.

Nov 8, 2010 17:40 GMT+0100
READING %LONG / %SHORT

1. AUD/USD
43.64% 56.36%
2. EUR/CHF
53.45% 46.55%
3. EUR/GBP
39.27% 60.73%
4. EUR/JPY
63.48% 36.52%
5. EUR/USD
51.93% 48.07%
6. GBP/JPY
62.98% 37.02%
7. GBP/USD
45.89% 54.11%
8. USD/CAD
70.58% 29.42%
9. USD/CHF
68.72% 31.28%
10. USD/JPY
77.91% 22.09%
 
At the Open. Watching from the stars.

09:08CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. The situation at the start of the week remains supportive for the USD, as most pairs tried to make some early gains vs. the greenback overnight and have just fallen to new session lows as USD positioning gets healthier. Last Friday was a very eventful day when it comes to technical analysis, for we had the confirmation of a sell signal in Gold (XAU/USD), which should be supportive for the USD in the weeks ahead. It was a daily confirmation, and although the last 2-3 confirmations have not been of much use, I feel this one is more real, given the overall context in which we are trading these days.

EUR/USD is falling to the key 1.3620 area (which was marginally broken last week) again, and Cable has lost much of its bullish momentum (which kept it afloat when the others were diving), as it trades well under 1.61 now. The Swissy, however, got oversold when it hit 0.9850 and that may put some brakes to the USD advance, depending on which pair you want to trade. As for the USD/JPY, the unit is trading well above 82.50 resistance, and this is good news, for shorts are getting more nervous now, and a liquidation of short positions in this pair will make the USD look much better indeed.

Before finishing this opening post, let me give you how retailers are positioning themselves at this hour.

Nov 15, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100
%LONG / 5SHORT
1. USD/JPY
78.11% 21.89%
2. USD/CHF
72.50% 27.50%
3. XAU/USD
72.19% 27.81%
4. USD/CAD
68.79% 31.21%
5. AUD/USD
49.79% 50.21%
6. EUR/USD
48.87% 51.13%
7. GBP/USD
37.69% 62.31%
 
Extreme levels for the day

09:27CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3846 - extreme OS 1.3545
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6260 - extreme OS 1.5991
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.855 - extreme OS 81.810
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9892 - extreme OS 0.9682
AUD/USD - extreme OB 1.0003 - extreme OS 0.9735
 
DAILY TRADING TIPS (EXCERPT)
The following strategies are valid for the current day only, and are based on prices not yet hit when the tip is released, so we’re basically working with limit orders. To review these and other strategies, and to have a direct chat with the strategist, open a live account with www.Investors-Europe.com and ask for the trading tips help, a service you'll receive 24h a day with full monitoring of trades. Once the trigger has been activated and either stop or limit have been hit, trade is no longer valid. End of day should see all positions squared regardless of price.
DATE: MONDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2010 09:11 CET
PAIR ACTION ENTRY STOP LIMIT
EUR/USD SELL 1.3740 1.3810 1.3620
EURUSD BUY 1.3580 1.3550 1.3660
GBP/USD SELL 1.6185 1.6230 1.6110
USD/JPY BUY 81.90 81.40 82.90
USD/CHF BUY 0.9690 0.9660 0.9780
USD/CHF SELL 0.9850 0.9880 0.9790
 
Action recap at this hour

12:30CET

I don't really have much to add at this point as the market is almost not moving, except for GBP/USD, where we've seen the dynamic support @ 1.6045 play its role and catapult prices higher...other than that, a very odorless trading day so far.

Technically speaking, buying EUR/USD here around 1.3615-20, with stop below 1.3580 and a 1.3660-70 target may work for some pips, as there is some real buying interest around the 1.36 figure, which may mean the EUR/USD decline to be halted for now. Below you'll find the recent retail positioning, where we find that EUR/USD traders are actually short the pair despite the 600-pip drop, something's fishy...

Nov 15, 2010 12:20 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
77.79% 22.21%
2. USD/CHF
72.75% 27.25%
3. XAU/USD
72.58% 27.42%
4. USD/CAD
68.40% 31.60%
5. AUD/USD
50.83% 49.17%
6. EUR/USD
48.60% 51.40%
7. GBP/USD
41.80% 58.20%
 
At the Close. Usual Monday.

18:22CET

A usual Monday in many respects, but basically in the fact, as it has been discussed many times before here, that Monday is a USD-buying day, as so is Tuesday a USD-selling day. I do not know the reasons why this is so, but the fact is that the rule remains true.

EUR/USD is flirting with a clean break of the 1.36 support line, and that would mean that next support 1.3550 should be sooner rather than later being put at test. That said, the EUR is generally weaker across the board, as now the market turns to it instead of the USD to blame for what is going on around the world...

The rest of the majors are also showing some good USD shape, but I'm a bit reluctant to call for sustained USD gains as long as USD/CHF remains pushing without correcting off key levels. The unit has failed to clear the 0.9850 resistance, but all retracements are shallow, thus making the situation a bit overstretched there. On the other hand, the fact that the short signal in Gold has not (yet) triggered any good follow-through may be a good support for the USD. We shall see...

I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching this blog, I look forward to meeting you again tomorrow.
 
At the Open. A usual Tuesday ahead?

09:03CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Yesterday I called it a 'classic' Monday, referring to the fact that the USD usually gains ground on Mondays and so it proved to be the case. Tuesdays, in the other hand, are generally USD-selling days, so I'm curious to see whether that trend will persist today....or not.

EUR/USD starts the day around 1.36 after having hit a 1.3559 low, i.e, very close to the important 1.3550 support level, from where it has spiked almost 100 pips to 1.3650, in what it has been a massive USD-selling hour (noon Chinese time), for Cable has hit 1.6090 off 1.6040 levels and AUD/USD has seen 0.9890 off 0.9815. Speaking of Cable, the unit should see volatility picking up big time today as we have the release of the CPI figures @ 10:30CET.

Again, the non-healthy behavior by the usually two lagging USD pairs, i.e, USD/CHF and USD/JPY (and particularly the former), may put some weight to the USD advance for the time being. I'd like to see a better correction in the Swissy off that 0.9850 tough resistance level, but so far nothing good has come out of it.

Speaking of 'better moves' to be seen, the short signal in Gold (triggered @ $1,370), has so far yielded poorly, and the unit is resisting to break 1,350 en route towards the key 1,315 neckline, where a bigger formation might be shaping. I feel, however, that it will be tomorrow or the day after when we will see that pattern kicking in for good. As usual, here's a long/short positioning ratio by the retail hands at this hour, surprising to see EUR still with more shorts than longs after all the drop it's seen.

Nov 16, 2010 09:00 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
77.64% 22.36%
2. USD/CHF
72.73% 27.27%
3. XAU/USD
71.98% 28.02%
4. USD/CAD
69.78% 30.22%
5. AUD/USD
50.29% 49.71%
6. EUR/USD
49.92% 50.08%
7. GBP/USD
40.33% 59.67%
 
Extreme levels for the Day

09:33CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3735 - extreme OS 1.3468
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.6174 - extreme OS 1.5939
USD/JPY - extreme OB 83.717 - extreme OS 82.326
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9985 - extreme OS 0.9734
AUD/USD - extreme OB 1.0241 - extreme OS 1.0037
 
Can you respond to the issue I raised on your other threads about the discrepancy between your URL and the URL of the Gibraltar regulated company? It doesn't look very good as you seem to be ignoring that question.
 
DAILY FX TRADING TIPS (EXCERPT)

09:35CET

The following strategies are valid for the current day only, and are based on prices not yet hit when the tip is released, so we’re basically working with limit orders. Once the trigger has been activated and either stop or limit have been hit, trade is no longer valid. End of day should see all positions squared regardless of price.

DATE: TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2010 09:12 CET

PAIR ACTION ENTRY STOP LIMIT
EUR/USD SELL 1.3670 1.3730 1.3540
EURUSD BUY 1.3555 1.3510 1.3650
GBP/USD SELL 1.6110 1.6180 1.6020
USD/JPY BUY 81.90 81.40 82.90
USD/CHF BUY 0.9690 0.9660 0.9780
USD/CHF SELL 0.9850 0.9880 0.9790
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Seeing as how you won't provide any explanation it is only fair to warn people that investors-Europe.com could well be a clone of a regulated Gibraltar broker. This is a common scam where the website is cloned with a view to getting customers login details or to obtain money from new customers. Spamming forums with free analysis would be another red flag.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...ameritrade-citadel-investment-group-customers
 
USD/CHF techs - break of support trendline

11:12CET

One of the tech signals that I was looking for in order to have a better Swissy correction, i.e, the break of the rising trendline off the low 0.97s and which means the steepest short-term support line for the pair, has finally been confirmed in the last hour with the break of the 0.9850 level.

If this break has some follow-through, we should see 0.9790 or thereabouts printing rather soon, but in any case, selling any rallies (even if it goes to test the broken line around 0.9860 now) is the favored strategy short term in this pair, that is, for the next couple of days,
 
At the Close. A very unusual Tuesday...

18:01CET

It's not that I don't like it (I just love it), it's that I was not expecting it to happen on a Tuesday! Big USD rally today, hitting all imaginable stops in all majors and Gold, and trapping many shorts wrong-footed (it was time!). The Euro has printed a 1.3495 low vs the USD, Cable almost diving to 1.5840, AUD 0.9720 and Gold is very near a neckline 2 1,315 of a tremendous SHS formation that would definitely mark more gains for the USD in the mid-term. There is little to add to this, i.e, buy USD on dips and believe the trend has changed for good in the mid-term, preferably playing the GBP as the vehicle to do so (and AUD above 0.98) rather than the very much oversold now EUR/USD.

Before leaving, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour, I still find amazing that so many are making money with this latest EUR dive! I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching this blog, look forward to your company tomorrow.

Nov 16, 2010 18:00 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
78.17% 21.83%
2. XAU/USD
72.35% 27.65%
3. USD/CHF
71.20% 28.80%
4. USD/CAD
61.80% 38.20%
5. AUD/USD
50.47% 49.53%
6. EUR/USD
50.07% 49.93%
7. GBP/USD
45.75% 54.25%
 
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