Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[swedendenmark]

Hello,

Can anyone shed light on what will happen to all those open positions, Long/Short, for EURCHF in case of EuroZone break up? I mean how will an adjustment take place?

Thanks

 

[NVP]

Hello,

Can anyone shed light on what will happen to all those open positions, Long/Short, for EURCHF in case of EuroZone break up? I mean how will an adjustment take place?

Thanks

Good question.......

Firstly it depends on how the Euro breaks up and who leaves it !

I believe the Euro will survive...but who remains in the euro and holding
the baby is another story !

If weaker members leave...the Euro becomes stronger in the long term (as long as Germany remains)

if the unthinkable happened and Germany leaves the Euro will fall like a stone and then gradually find its new level based on the constituent countries remaining

(I actually would love to see the Germans walk ....that would be a superb scenario and the only way that the Euro would be resolved as it would sink like a stone and then the members could trade their way out of thier problems - and Germany is at least free of its fiscal commitments to its poor family)

anyway in terms of the Swissie Euro pair.......well the reaction will depend on the trades being carried and the currency reserves being held in other country currencies by the SNB

They must be hurting...the permanent buying of EURCHF must be killing them as where to unload all those unwanted Euros ?

and if the Euro does finally tumble the CHF will have to release the Peg .....as its a disaster otherwise

So selling EuR CHF would be the button to press if anyone except Germany bails

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

busy busy today ..sorry

looks like some nice sells on the E/U and G/U so far his morning off a flat/falling Dow

later
N

 

[doky75]

hey all

busy busy today ..sorry

looks like some nice sells on the E/U and G/U so far his morning off a flat/falling Dow

later
N

yes, very nice sells were there indeed:clap:

 

[NVP]

simple simple simple !

c'mon try it
N

Simple Simple Simple|FXCORRELATOR

 

[swedendenmark]

Good question.......

So selling EuR CHF would be the button to press if anyone except Germany bails

N

Hi,
Thanks a lot for your reply N. Was it a typo in your statement above? I guess you mean that sell EURCHF button would be a one to press if Germany leaves Euro? I mean, if weaker countries leave Euro then it makes a case for a stronger Euro, as the stronger countries would be free from the fiscal commitments.
Thanks,

 

[NVP]

dows opened like a train ..............

buckle up and find the best currency to buy against the yen and usd ....they are slow to turn at the moment

 

[NVP]

Hi,
Thanks a lot for your reply N. Was it a typo in your statement above? I guess you mean that sell EURCHF button would be a one to press if Germany leaves Euro? I mean, if weaker countries leave Euro then it makes a case for a stronger Euro, as the stronger countries would be free from the fiscal commitments.
Thanks,

hey SD....

Hmmmmmmmmm - sorry brain got muddled

you have to look at the biggest player in the EURCHF market

its the SNB who are continually Buying EURCHF to hold the peg ....under the currenct dynamics .....

sooooo


If Germany leaves

the Euro gets weaker - then I wanted to say i'm not sure the SNB will hold the peg anymore .so yes the EURCHF should sink like a stone...As long as the SNB dont hold the peg .....

If anyone else leaves *
The Euro should get stronger in the long term.....and then the SNB doesnt need to hold the peg anymore ....then in truth i'm not sure why the Euro would be stronger than the CHF unless market dynamics dictate it and CHF falls back to a risk play like the usd and Yen (as it used to be)...so 50/50 for me on the direction of EURCHF ....HOWEVER.......in the short term the fallout from the breakup might still destablise the Euro and leave the immediate direction as a fall ...the market hates surprises and also uncertainty ......so all bets may have to be as they are with the SNB holding the peg .....

Personally EURCHF is the last trade I would be taking if I KNEW Euro was weakening ......it will be a pip fest selling EURO into the USD and Yen

N

 

[NVP]

dows opened like a train ..............

buckle up and find the best currency to buy against the yen and usd ....they are slow to turn at the moment

....fakeout play ?

 

[moisaid]

Hi Everybody
the GBP / USD is for Bid at 1.5617 SL 1.5675 TP 1.5475 - TP2 1.5399

 

[NVP]

Hi Everybody
the GBP / USD is for Bid at 1.5617 SL 1.5675 TP 1.5475 - TP2 1.5399

Hi M

Based on what rules system please ? :?:

N

 

[Blaiserboy]

Thanks for the pdf.

I find it interesting that you have found a successful way to use the indexes, impressive.!

Thanks for sharing your expertise.


daveM

 

[Blaiserboy]

Hi Everybody
the GBP / USD is for Bid at 1.5617 SL 1.5675 TP 1.5475 - TP2 1.5399

I just noticed this post.. even though you have made what appears to be a valid call... the post sorta clutters this thread as there is nothing mentioned about correlation.

On the 60 minute chart the AO has crossed the zero line upwards however the currency has not a lot of strength upwards, On the 240 minute chart the AO has crossed the signal line lower....

And if you have a look at the strength of the USD, you may see that it has not a lot of energy. we could be range bound for many hours.....

Can I ask how you arrived at your decision.?

I actually made a few pips by being long at the same time you seem to be advocating a short.

Someone following your 'tip' may lose some money on this one.

 

[swedendenmark]

hey SD....

Hmmmmmmmmm - sorry brain got muddled

you have to look at the biggest player in the EURCHF market
N

Hi N,

Thanks for your reply. It's enlightening. Yes, I concur with you in totality. If I further run the horses of my mind - let's say that Euro collapses and there is no more any Euro, with countries going back to their pre 1998 curriences(Euro becomes a currency of past). Then, in such cases how will open EURCHF positions be dealt with? Will they be broken into corresponding pairs like Deutsche mark/CHF, Italian Lira/CHF, French Franc/CHF etc etc based on their weightage in Euro.

Thanks,
SD

 

[NVP]

Hi N,

Thanks for your reply. It's enlightening. Yes, I concur with you in totality. If I further run the horses of my mind - let's say that Euro collapses and there is no more any Euro, with countries going back to their pre 1998 curriences(Euro becomes a currency of past). Then, in such cases how will open EURCHF positions be dealt with? Will they be broken into corresponding pairs like Deutsche mark/CHF, Italian Lira/CHF, French Franc/CHF etc etc based on their weightage in Euro.

Thanks,
SD

Hi SD

Now i understand your question more my friend !

I am not an expert on currency logistics but I suspect the days of transition will work like the opposite of when all currencies went into the Euro ?

OR......

I think there would be an overlap period with the Euro active and all the other new currencies as well.........the Euro would then be phased out over a period of time

True value of each new national currency against the euro would be created by supply and demand in the market

N

 

[NVP]

Thanks for the pdf.

I find it interesting that you have found a successful way to use the indexes, impressive.!

Thanks for sharing your expertise.


daveM

THANKS !

nothings perfect BB....but I offer up here the basics of how i looks at things

N

 

[NVP]

I just noticed this post.. even though you have made what appears to be a valid call... the post sorta clutters this thread as there is nothing mentioned about correlation.

On the 60 minute chart the AO has crossed the zero line upwards however the currency has not a lot of strength upwards, On the 240 minute chart the AO has crossed the signal line lower....

And if you have a look at the strength of the USD, you may see that it has not a lot of energy. we could be range bound for many hours.....

Can I ask how you arrived at your decision.?

I actually made a few pips by being long at the same time you seem to be advocating a short.

Someone following your 'tip' may lose some money on this one.

lets not wait toooo long for the response BB....

I was not anticipating a correlation based response from someone trying to make a name for themselves on my 350,000+ viewed Thread

N

 

[NVP]

Hey break the rules sometimes...........because the market does - all the time !

N


1 hour TF |FXCORRELATOR

 

[NVP]

hey all

heres the 20ma free system available below.......i've put 4 TF's up looking for signals

any bites ?

actually the 1hr there is VERRRRY marginal ........possbly still a tick - sorry !

just 1 clear signal ...the 4hour is marginally telling me to look for sells still on the usd and Yen off that rising Dow.....

so would I do it ?

probably not and I will tell you why next..........go have a look at the 4hr 20ma for yourself first

N

 

[NVP]

part 2 corrie compardres !

heres the 4h 20ma.....its been expanded from being on the last post above

the last signals to start hunting Sells on the yen and usd came way a good few bars ago back yesterday the 17th midday........so thats when I was hunting and not now .....

we are in the twighlight (perhaps?) of any more USD or Yen sells so why would I want to give back all those pips on the AU shown on the charts ?

sure - i'm dumb sometimes ....but not that dumb !
N