Best Thread COFFEE - The next big bull?

[squaregains]

mmm..so what happened here then!

 

[TWI]

Been away for a couple of weeks but it looks pretty horrible to me now.....

 

[The Kman]

Been away for a couple of weeks but it looks pretty horrible to me now.....

Are you for seeing a further down trend?

 

[TWI]

I do not like to sell it, merely because it is cheap and the fundamentals do not seem to suggest it should be much cheaper. Probably largely at the mercy of the automated fund money here but thinking that this could prove to be value. For now I am on the sidelines.

 

[TWI]

I think it may be time to rename this thread "Coffee - the dog of the commodity markets" unless we can get some action next week!
This is a market where the underlying fundamentals are quite supportive but the TF's and black boxes are still all short....It is worth watching.

 

[..]

Coffee

I think it may be time to rename this thread "Coffee - the dog of the commodity markets" unless we can get some action next week!
This is a market where the underlying fundamentals are quite supportive but the TF's and black boxes are still all short....It is worth watching.

The open interest is low, last year at this time there was record long position by commercials, and then the rally took off for the next 4-5 months.

I would like to buy this market while it trades around under 100, but there is not strong demand in the cash market at present.

It would seem sensible to wait until the trend turns up again, or we conclusively retest the monthly trendline support which looks like it is in the low 80s.

Coffee, fickle as it is may just surprise us and make a high volume reversal day - up 500+ points.... but I'm not holding my breath.

Another point is the sunspot cycle which would suggest we will get a price spike in the next 18months to 200-300.

I wonder whether the move of the planting regions in Brazil out of the frost belt will mean there is a reduced correlation thesedays?

Any thoughts?

 

[gene]

Because of the move of the growing regions, frost no longer poses much threat. Also, Brazil has more competition in the coffee market than it used to. I don't know if coffee can rally to the levels it has in the past.

 

[cs00nnb]

Coffee

Coffee is in a long term bull market, and it is currently at a week point in the long term bull trend.
This is the point to buy and load up on coffee.
Looking at the seasonal trend, Coffee tends to rise through August. But in Jan 2006, when price gets high enough (overbought), then sell out.

I see this time a great opportunity to find opprotunities in Softs and Agricultural commodities because everyone else appears to be busy trading the Gold bull mania at the moment.

 

[bgold]

Coffee is in a long term bull market, and it is currently at a week point in the long term bull trend.
This is the point to buy and load up on coffee.
Looking at the seasonal trend, Coffee tends to rise through August. But in Jan 2006, when price gets high enough (overbought), then sell out.

I see this time a great opportunity to find opprotunities in Softs and Agricultural commodities because everyone else appears to be busy trading the Gold bull mania at the moment.

Provided that March Coffee remains above 90 the recent low, I find the bullish scenario appealing. As always a matter to find a good entry (?) Any suggestions?

 

[TWI]

bgold,
Your chart is wonderfully optimistic.
The market is struggling to hold yesterdays upside.
I am just going to watch and wait for another convincing break up and hope it isn't like the last one of the inverted head and shoulders. Will not short this here.

 

[cs00nnb]

coffee

perhaps,

with respect to the seasonal trend for coffee, we should have (in my humble opinion) a rise through to the rest of December. But January tends to bring a correction.

 

[jas-105]

Does anyone watch the put/call ratios on the coffee ??

 

[The Kman]

Been away for a couple of weeks but it looks pretty horrible to me now.....

Do you still think it looks pretty horrible?

 

[TWI]

No, no really although keeping a close stop on longs, bought the break up and was in at 108.10, next day it had the big move so i got lucky there. Seems that the roasters were not covered so they have been in the market buying which is always a good sign. Coffee is certainly one market where fundamentals are supportive of these higher prices but as ever it can get pretty horrible.

 

[DaveT]

Coffee looks like it's ripe for a pullback, and I am looking for a retest of the Triangle bottom formation.


1) A Retest of this triangle would appear feasable.

2) Indicators very overbought.

3) The 40 Day Moving Average may co-incide with the retest (by then)

 

[TWI]

You certainly have to keep a close stop on it. Todays action did look constructive for a time bu I am not going to f*ck around if there is a pullback

 

[The Kman]

You certainly have to keep a close stop on it. Todays action did look constructive for a time bu I am not going to f*ck around if there is a pullback

Even with crops in Brazil and Vietnam forecast to recover in the 2006/07 season, analysts see ample room for the funds to flock back to the market due to lingering uncertainty about next year’s worlds supply-demand scenario. ?

I picked this up from the internet. Do you agree? Is there any sight on the supply/demand senario 06/07

 

[TWI]

Depends on Bzl crop really. I think it has gone a long way, probably some stops waiting there under the 2 day 117 low. This market may need a washout before moving higher. I am not adding to longs here but will be out if it breaks down and looking to get back in in low 100's. Coffee has a nasty habit of having large one day corrective moves, I don't like it much.

 

[DaveT]

Correction underway - looking for 11000 area BASIS MAY. :cheesy:

(see above)

 

[DaveT]

Sugar in 1970's-style inflation. Coffee next?


Most probably, I'd say.

Short-term, Coffee could correct basis the Weekly chart.

Then long-term, it looks poised to join the other high-flyers of the post-millenium inflationary debacle...