The El Nino weather phenomenon is back with a vengeance in 2005 :
El Nino Weather Disruption More Likely in 2005 (Update1)
March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Climate indicators suggest El Nino, the weather pattern capable of causing drought in Asia and flooding in South America, has an increased chance of emerging this year, the Australian government's weather forecaster said.
The Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology's assessment follows a plunge in the so-called Southern Oscillation Index, which tracks monthly fluctuations in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. The index fell from 2 in January to minus 29 in February, the lowest in 22 years. Subsurface sea temperatures in the western Pacific warmed and westerly wind bursts were recorded over the International Dateline, the bureau said.
``These recent developments have increased the chances of a basin-wide El Nino occurring later this year,'' the bureau in Melbourne said today. Its POAMA computer model predicts about a 35 percent chance of El Nino conditions developing this year.
The last El Nino ended in early 2003 after parching two- thirds of Australia, reducing grain, beef, cotton, sugar, dairy and wool production and causing profit to plunge for companies such as AWB Ltd., farm chemical distributor Nufarm Ltd. and cattle rancher Australian Agricultural Co.
An El Nino may worsen a drought that's already taken hold in parts of India and Thailand, slashing sugarcane crops, and in Vietnam, where coffee crops are withering.
``Anywhere that grows sugarcane is El Nino country,'' said Roger Stone, professor of climatology with the University of Southern Queensland in Toowoomba. ``We are sitting on the edge of our seats watching it very closely. The implications are fairly horrific.''
Hurricane Warning
Prospects for an El Nino this year have also increased following hurricanes last month in the South Pacific islands near Samoa, Stone said. Cyclone Olaf lashed the region Feb. 16 and 17 with winds as strong as 260 kilometers (162 miles) an hour.
The hurricanes ``are helping ignite the very strong westerly wind bursts in the Pacific,'' said Stone, who's been tracking climate change, including El Nino events for 20 years. ``They have been enormous over the last month.''
An El Nino can cause drier weather in southeastern Africa, Southeast Asia, the eastern Pacific and northeastern Brazil, the Australian government's forecaster said on its Web site.
In Peru, Argentina, the southeastern U.S., central Africa and the central Pacific, it can cause wetter weather. Warmer weather is typically experienced in Japan, South Korea, Alaska, British Columbia, New England and Quebec, the bureau said.
El Nino events usually develop between April and June, and could be triggered by increased westerly wind bursts, it said. Nine of 12 computer models predict neutral eastern Pacific conditions through July.
``Most computer models haven't included the current westerly wind burst and associated strong subsurface warming,'' the bureau said.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Jason Gale in Singapore [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Peter Langan at [email protected]
Last Updated: March 9, 2005 05:09 EST
El Nino Weather Disruption More Likely in 2005 (Update1)
March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Climate indicators suggest El Nino, the weather pattern capable of causing drought in Asia and flooding in South America, has an increased chance of emerging this year, the Australian government's weather forecaster said.
The Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology's assessment follows a plunge in the so-called Southern Oscillation Index, which tracks monthly fluctuations in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. The index fell from 2 in January to minus 29 in February, the lowest in 22 years. Subsurface sea temperatures in the western Pacific warmed and westerly wind bursts were recorded over the International Dateline, the bureau said.
``These recent developments have increased the chances of a basin-wide El Nino occurring later this year,'' the bureau in Melbourne said today. Its POAMA computer model predicts about a 35 percent chance of El Nino conditions developing this year.
The last El Nino ended in early 2003 after parching two- thirds of Australia, reducing grain, beef, cotton, sugar, dairy and wool production and causing profit to plunge for companies such as AWB Ltd., farm chemical distributor Nufarm Ltd. and cattle rancher Australian Agricultural Co.
An El Nino may worsen a drought that's already taken hold in parts of India and Thailand, slashing sugarcane crops, and in Vietnam, where coffee crops are withering.
``Anywhere that grows sugarcane is El Nino country,'' said Roger Stone, professor of climatology with the University of Southern Queensland in Toowoomba. ``We are sitting on the edge of our seats watching it very closely. The implications are fairly horrific.''
Hurricane Warning
Prospects for an El Nino this year have also increased following hurricanes last month in the South Pacific islands near Samoa, Stone said. Cyclone Olaf lashed the region Feb. 16 and 17 with winds as strong as 260 kilometers (162 miles) an hour.
The hurricanes ``are helping ignite the very strong westerly wind bursts in the Pacific,'' said Stone, who's been tracking climate change, including El Nino events for 20 years. ``They have been enormous over the last month.''
An El Nino can cause drier weather in southeastern Africa, Southeast Asia, the eastern Pacific and northeastern Brazil, the Australian government's forecaster said on its Web site.
In Peru, Argentina, the southeastern U.S., central Africa and the central Pacific, it can cause wetter weather. Warmer weather is typically experienced in Japan, South Korea, Alaska, British Columbia, New England and Quebec, the bureau said.
El Nino events usually develop between April and June, and could be triggered by increased westerly wind bursts, it said. Nine of 12 computer models predict neutral eastern Pacific conditions through July.
``Most computer models haven't included the current westerly wind burst and associated strong subsurface warming,'' the bureau said.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Jason Gale in Singapore [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Peter Langan at [email protected]
Last Updated: March 9, 2005 05:09 EST
