Best Thread COFFEE - The next big bull?

[Moose666666]

Thanks DaveT.................I'll see you there when it's back up.
Hope your doing alright today.

 

[Nikk]

which Coffee Forum?

 

[DaveT]

Nikk -

It's a US-based forum, one of a number of commodity-specific forums at:

www.tradershelpingtraders.com

 

[DaveT]

KCZ Weekly Continuous Chart :

Downtrend to break next week?

 

[gene]

If the Brazilian farmers were to burn their coffee beans in protest of low prices, and the Viet Namese were to dump theirs' into the sea, and a hurricane were to ravage coffee storage in New York, and another hurricane were to destroy the coffee in Florida...tch. Wow! The market would really plummet, then!!

What's wrong with this crazy market?!

 

[DaveT]

Coffee could be techncially and fundamentally setting up for a reversal in trend.

Fundamental factors include:

1) Recent Central American damage to crops - Mexico/El Salvador/Honduras/Guatamala - due to Hurricane Stan and associated flooding and landslides.

2) NYBOT certified stocks beginning to drop ahead of the Winter Demnand Season.

3) Seasonal Chart turn UP from this time.

4) Still unresolved New orleans situation.

5) Brazil Exports well down on last year at 1.57m bags


Techncally, the Dec chart looks to have formed a solid bottom - could be seen as a double bottom - and a minor uptrending channel has formed since.

There are various factors I look for which are coming together.

1) A 'Volatility Squeeze on the Daily (and all intraday) charts - ie Bollinger Bands tight, espcially when plotted with the Keltner Channel.

2) Recent Spread Divergence.

3) Weekly (cont DEC) chart showing recent key reversal followed by higher high/low bar.

4) Commericals now NET LONG, Funds NET SHORT.

I am LONG from 9440 Basis DEC. Will add on breakout of the downtrend line.

Target (on breaking the downtrend line) = 11300-11500 Resistacne (Depth of downtrend added to probable breakout point)

 

[DaveT]

WEEKLY DEC CHART (LOG)


1) Trendline support

2) Reversal formation.

 

[marketwavez]

Coffee.... ELLIOTT WAVE structures

HERE WHAT'S UP WITH COFFEE .....




There has been this nasty diergence that's been buliding between price and the stochastic oscillator... you have to look at the weekly charts to see it

See the first chart posted here .....

.... COFFEE has been overs sold for some time ..... as of 9 / 16 / 05 it looket like we could get

 

[bgold]

Coffee could be techncially and fundamentally setting up for a reversal in trend.

Fundamental factors include:

1) Recent Central American damage to crops - Mexico/El Salvador/Honduras/Guatamala - due to Hurricane Stan and associated flooding and landslides.

2) NYBOT certified stocks beginning to drop ahead of the Winter Demnand Season.

3) Seasonal Chart turn UP from this time.

4) Still unresolved New orleans situation.

5) Brazil Exports well down on last year at 1.57m bags


Techncally, the Dec chart looks to have formed a solid bottom - could be seen as a double bottom - and a minor uptrending channel has formed since.

There are various factors I look for which are coming together.

1) A 'Volatility Squeeze on the Daily (and all intraday) charts - ie Bollinger Bands tight, espcially when plotted with the Keltner Channel.

2) Recent Spread Divergence.

3) Weekly (cont DEC) chart showing recent key reversal followed by higher high/low bar.

4) Commericals now NET LONG, Funds NET SHORT.

I am LONG from 9440 Basis DEC. Will add on breakout of the downtrend line.

Target (on breaking the downtrend line) = 11300-11500 Resistacne (Depth of downtrend added to probable breakout point)

Great analysis. many thanks. Elliott Wave analysis supports your bull outlook. See chart. Good luck

 

[marketwavez]

about charts

BGOLD

J ust wondering ........................................
I am new to this forum and was wondering if there is any other futures market you may be interted in seeing my Elliott-Wave count in.....
Coffee is in pLay now and its all about moving the protective stop up as prices advance...

 

[skiracer]

Just trying something.

 

[bgold]

BGOLD

J ust wondering ........................................
I am new to this forum and was wondering if there is any other futures market you may be interted in seeing my Elliott-Wave count in.....
Coffee is in pLay now and its all about moving the protective stop up as prices advance...

Always interested in grains & metals

 

[marketwavez]

ok ... I have them availble ... but where do i post the mettals or grains so that you can see them and we can exchange ideas .....This thread is set-up for coffee only ... i think ..

 

[gene]

"...where do i post the mettals or grains ...?"

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/

Scroll down 'till you see the "Commodities" button. Click on it and your almost there.

 

[DaveT]

I added to my KCZ Long position at 9925 on Friday.

Glad to have done so, as today it is rocketing.

10420 latest (after first half-hour. Will Post chart later.
#

 

[DaveT]

Here is KCZ daily Chart so far:

 

[bgold]

Another update (smaller timeframe, 90 + 15min)

 

[TWI]

Coffee Bull

Could this be the right shoulder of an inverted SHS. There are a few people in the business who are getting bullish here. I am going to await confirmation before going anywhere near it but certainly starting to look more constructive.

 

[TWI]

Is nobody on this baby yet?

 

[squaregains]

ouch missed this been tracking/trading hogs..mmm..not sure if its worth getting in now or on a "dip"