Best Thread COFFEE - The next big bull?

direct order routing to a coffee broker

the platforms that oatman provided a link to are not direct access platforms. in order to get your order routed directly to a floor broker you have to use one of the NYBOT's hand held systems such as their EOR system. Let me know if you would like additional info.

Cheers.
 
Coffee
KCN05 [30] Coffee Jul '05 11:51:58 99.00
-4.25
KCU05 [30] Coffee Sep '05 12:30:00 100.10
-5.40

down to 100 (almost) - damn - wish I had stuck on that short now :)
 
mmm...Dave you have gone a bit quiet here - any insight, looks like a technical downturn i.e. cant see any fundamental news through the newswire to explain this sharp drop.
 
Technical vs. fundamentals

I was certainly impressed with some of Dave's analysis....however, I am always wary of "fundamentals"....there is far too much deliberate "misinformation" for my liking, which is why I stick to technicals....

but there is another debate....technicals vs. fundamentals
 
I agree sticking to Technicals. How accurate can it be counting coffee bags in the mountains?



Pippppin said:
I was certainly impressed with some of Dave's analysis....however, I am always wary of "fundamentals"....there is far too much deliberate "misinformation" for my liking, which is why I stick to technicals....

but there is another debate....technicals vs. fundamentals
 
surley if there was ever an asset class that would favour fundamental analysis it would be commodities? however I guess its an issue with time-frame as well - i.e. over the next 5 years (assume constant growth in supply) the price will be significantly higher (if figures of world demand growth are anything to go by..)
 
Hi guys -

Yep, the NY Coffee market has now retraced MORE than 50% of it's 2004/5 rally.

I have put on a few swing trades since the March top, but small positions, nothing major. Did very well out of the rally from December- March, though. :cool:

This retracement is reminiscent of several markets in the last few years, which peaked EARLIER than most fundamentalists would have thought. - Cocoa and Wheat in 2002, for instance.

Although the top comes to pass long before many traders are prepared to believe it, what we have seen is simply the natural laws of the market - futures ANTICIPATING S/D tightness (small crop,big demand) and then going on to ANTICIPATE easing of S/D tightness (crop harvest, low demand seasonal)

In the absence of any weather scares, the dominant bearish seasonal has taken over, and funds are selling. I will look for a seasonal low from now thru August.

Fundamenttally, the balance sheet still points to increasing tighness going forward.

Technically, we need to see a reversal on the weekly/monthly charts, or a good base formation.

Often , it stikes me that the 'easy' money is made in the first breakout of a multi-year base such as we have had in Coffee. From now on it could be choppier.

IMHO.
 
The market will head higher, now. (click heels)
The market will head higher, now. (click heels)
The market will head higher, now. (click heels)

There. That should do it. :)
 

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LOOKIN' GOOD!!
I expect the market to move up at least to that resistance line I drew on the weekly chart. Once that resistance line is broken, hold on to your hats. If you like looking for chart symetry, look at the monthly...

(edit): There's a downtrending resistance line on the daily chart that I don't have on this thumbnail. It has to be cleared first, of course. On tomorrow's bar chart, it sets resistance somewhere around 107.50 or 108.00.
 

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I'm in :cheesy:

Long 25 Z5 Nybot contracts @ 101,3

Seasonal pattern is my drive

Nikk
 
You still in Nikk? - If so, that must be quite a drawdown you have (on 25 contracts?) :-0


Seriously, I do see Coffee bottoming soon - Yes, seasonals, fundamentals, etc are good. Roaster buying should kick in during September, and the new crop flowering season begins by October - weather concerns etc.

As I am a TA man, I always look first at the Monthly Chart - preferably the CONTINUOUS LOG charts.

See the DECEMBER MONTHLY LOG CHART below:

1) The Long-term trendline is approching (around 9000-9100)

2) An Important support line is approaching (also 9000-9100)

3) The 50% retracement of the 2001-2005 rally = 9425 - (ie 4150 low to 14700 high)


Monday Sept 5th is Lobor Day holiday in US. Markets often make a significant turn just before or just after a public holiday.


Perparing for initial LONG entry on evidence of successful test of support.
 

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Yes I'm out, stopped at 96 :(

A huge loss, probably I jumped in too early...but I learned a big lesson "Is danger to be contrarian in a strong mkt like coffee, and try to pick up bottoms".

I'm still short soybean from 730, target at 550......at least to offset this loss

I think you are right sayng that after the holiday the pit mood can change (new month, new cycle), but be in a long position (close to stop area) whit a gap danger behind the corner..... could kill my account.

Now I'm thinking to include options (as an hedge) in a synthetic position, do you use them?

Sorry for my poor english, Nikk
 
There are coffee warehouses in New Orleans. I'm wondering what affect the hurricane news will have on the market Monday morning.
 
Katrina blows up storm in a coffee cup for US




Consumer goods



August 31, 2005

Katrina blows up storm in a coffee cup for US
By Daniel Murdoch



FLOODING from Hurricane Katrina has placed about 8 per cent of the world’s coffee supply, which is stored in warehouses in New Orleans, under threat.
Coffee experts gave warning last night that severe and rising floodwaters threatened to destroy the city’s stock of coffee and hit supplies.



Néstor Asorio, executive director of the International Coffee Organisation, estimated that the loss of the 96,000 tonnes of coffee stored in New Orleans would take a year to replace and would raise the price of coffee.

The New York Board of Trade said yesterday that “no further delivery notices may be issued for coffee to be delivered in the Port of New Orleans until the condition of the warehouses and the coffee located there can be determined”.

New Orleans stores both Arabica and Robusta green coffee valued at between $100 million (£56 million) and $160 million. This represents 27 per cent of American stocks and 8 per cent of total global supply. The United States is the world’s largest consumer of coffee.

However, the impact of the loss of the stock is likely to be small beans when it comes to the price of a lattè or espresso sold in cafés on the high street. Retailers such as Starbucks and Caffè Nero say that they spend more on labour, rent and milk than on coffee.

Gerry Ford, chairman of Caffè Nero, said yesterday: “We mostly get our supplies directly from Latin America and Central America. We buy in advance and we have stocks in hand so the implications of this are minuscule.”
 
Katrina threatens cost of cup of java
New Orleans, a major port of entry for coffee, is assessing damage to warehoused stockpiles
.


Katrina threatens cost of cup of java
New Orleans, a major port of entry for coffee, is assessing damage to warehoused stockpiles.

Related articles
• Fuel shortages, refinery damage could hit wallets
• Katrina whips up gas supply woes


Related news from the Web
Latest headlines by topic:
• Asian Tsunami Disaster
• Drink
• Coffee

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By Kevin G. Hall
Knight Ridder Newspapers


When Hurricane Katrina ripped through the New Orleans area, it tore through one of the biggest waterfront warehousing areas in the United States, disrupting the delivery and importation of an American staple -- coffee.

The New York Board of Trade, which along with London is one of two places where coffee is traded globally, on Tuesday declared that a force majeure situation exists at the port.

That's a situation in which an act of nature voids the terms of contract. The declaration means that delivery notices for coffee traded on the exchange before Tuesday are suspended until further notice.

The order also means that all coffee traded on the exchange will, for the moment, be delivered to Houston, Miami or New York.

New Orleans is synonymous with coffee. Tens of thousands of tourists visiting the Big Easy snap up cans of Cafe du Monde and other brands of the chicory coffee. It was the nation's top coffee port until 2003, when it lost that title to New York.

Coffee industry officials continue to watch events unfold on the Gulf Coast. The coffee industry fears potential flood damage to massive coffee supplies in storage. The Chicago Board of Trade said there were almost 733,000 bags of coffee, each weighing 132 or 150 pounds, in storage in New Orleans on Monday -- the day Katrina moved ashore.

"So far it looks as if there isn't a lot of damage to the warehouses," said Joe DeRupo, spokesman for the National Coffee Association in New York, which represents importers and roasters of coffee beans. "We still don't know whether water has gotten into the warehouses or not."

Because New Orleans accounts for about a sixth of the nation's coffee storage, any damage could affect U.S. coffee prices.

"If there is significant damage to coffee stocks, it could impact supply. If not, it will just delay shipments," DeRupo said.

Coffee roasters, who buy green coffee beans on the global market and roast them for grinding and consumption, said the Asian tsunami last year caused a spike in prices, but it dropped quickly.

"It dissipated rather quickly, and there is so much coffee in the world and so many places to ship it," said Lois Maffeo, a spokeswoman for Batdorf & Bronson Coffee Roasters in Olympia, Wash. "My spine isn't tingling yet."

Global coffee prices are in a slump because of excess production.

"I think a tiny increase in price over the last two days truly speaks volumes about how weak the price of coffee is," said James Cordier, head trader at Liberty Trading Group, a commodities trading company in Tampa, Fla.

Coffee is trading globally at about 94 cents for a 132-pound bag, after selling last year for as much as $1.40.
 
Got LONG DEC yesterday (before today's opening gap) at 9770.

Chart shows breakou of falling wedge.

1st Target = 11200-11300 resistance

2nd Target = 11690 wedge objective.
 

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Hi Moose -

I don't know what's happened - can't access the site.

I remember earlier in the year the site was down for a few hours - just when there is plenty to discuss! :rolleyes:
 
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