ChowClown's Blog

[ChowClown]

DOW - 27th Aug

+ve pattern today - looking to buy into first half weakness. Getting the feeling using a pin for entries could fair better, but what the hell, everyone needs to hang their hat on something to give them confidence in their entries - exits far more important.

+23 today.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 31st Aug

Didn't trade yesterday (inversion). Have today as +ve overall. Will be looking to buy into weakness within the first half, if the pattern holds.

Total: +63

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 1st Sep

Will sell into strength today, should pattern stack up. Noted that Genesis points to another +ve day.

The Chemical scare news spike hit a 50 limit, plus 12 from a 3 black crow earlier.

+62.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 2nd Sep

Pattern suggests a +ve day, hmm.

Genesis/LSS anticipating a Short Sell Day, where there's a high first followed by a decline.

15:36: directional day filter suggests any up move today could be limited; the first hour close quite close to the 5 min bar CPL (critical price level). Took +13 long. That short's looming.....

Another classic 'trade what you see day' - pleased the delta pattern held. Wasn't around to benefit from the 2nd half though....tomorrow's another day.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 3rd Sep

Suck it and see.....inversion territory today. Pattern calls for down.

DC's system is uncannily accurate against price targets......the next step - blimey, what with all the mid-night oil study sessions recently, the wife'll soon be feeding me bamboo!

15:37: right, the cpl = 10287 and most of the 1st hr action has been above that level, BUT the 3:30 bar close was very close to the cpl, suggesting a more neutral day. Having said that, it's a similar first 60 min pattern as yesterday! No position taken yet.

16:13: Short 10282.

Exit at close: +22.

+32 average / day this week.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 7th Sep

15:05: The inversion seems to be taking hold so far this session. Will sit back and wait; maybe there'll be a good short sell setup later.

15:40: 1st hr price action looks undecided, although gap's likely to be filled. May not be an inversion after all. No position yet.

Went short from 344 for +24.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 8th Sep

Delta down today (inversion yesterday).

For a larf, attempted to code Angell's Sniper Trading strat, based on Taylor (in excel):

BUY: 10267
SELL: 10394

(interestingly, the SELL for yesterday was 10354 (9 points from the high), probably a coincidence....).

15:40: hmm, first hr price action suggests a +ve day; Delta down - fantastic. No position yet.

Sniper envelopes:

SELL
10415
10413
10384
10363 (17:40 update: high so far 10361)

10338 Pivot (18:40 update: price has banged it's head here twice now in last 30 mins - short 332)

BUY
10314 (17:40 update: low so far 10313)
10282
10262
10211

22:25 update: Out this evening and limit hit at 314 for +18.

Good to see delta pattern holding once again.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 9th Sep

Delta pattern points +ve, plus::

Likely SELL entries:

10426
10381
10361
10348
_______________

Likely BUY entries:

10308
10305
10292
10257

17:30 update: No position yet. BUY target of 10250 (closest has been 10269 so far); SELL target 10390 ish (unlikely today, but you never know). I see a 15 min chart triple bottom here.

21:40 update: No position taken today. Delta didn't pan out and spent most of session rethinking Sniper. It looks as though I misinterpreted some areas. Boils down to using intra rather than EOD data. I didn't realise there was such as difference between the OHLC values - 30 points at times!

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 10th Sep

Delta pattern failed yesterday. Today was patterned down before yesterday....another suck it and see day today then (aren't they all?).

Further amendments to sniper yesterday now provides more realistic buy/sell entries and targets. As sniper is based on Taylor's 3-day cycle, now need to accurately id the 3 day pattern (buy day, sell day, short sell day).

The buy entry for yesterday (based on intraday data, rather than EOD) was around 10265 with a target limit over the next 2 days of 10414! Else exit at today's close for safety.

It's reaching 'max complexity threshold' - probably won't suit me in the end.

Also testing the daily envelope figures:

BUY zone: 10260 - 10270
SELL zone: 10348 - 10328

15:25 update: Long from 10260. 5 min cpl=10278.5 and most of the first hour has been below this level. The closing 60 min bar looks as though it will be fairly close to the cpl though, indicating lack of comittment downside. Anything could happen of course!

17:25 update: Still long. It's gearing up for a break in the 2nd half...which way though? Hrly chart looks bearish having now breached the EMA(42) and crossing down through 50 on RSI(14). :-(

22:00 update: ema acted as support and we got the break up, confirming today as a Taylor Sell Day. Exited long at close for +53 (+35 on EUR/USD long too). Theoretically Monday is a Short Sell Day - anticipating earlier highs from which to short...we'll see.

 

[FetteredChinos]

nice trading fella

that spikeup into the close caught me by surprise, but i took it as an opportunity to add to my longer term short..

what are the levels for monday then? we might see 10,383-10,390 i feel.

FC

 

[ChowClown]

cheers m8 - the system now uses intraday highs/lows for the target calcs. Having said that, using Friday's data against the Thursday call of a 'buy day' from 10265, the ideal exit for the 3-day cycle is now 10384!

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 13th Sep

Lost the delta plot now, after last week. Not at all sure what the sequence is now. All I know is today's Red and there was an Orange on Saturday (possibility of inversion) and Sunday was a Bradley turn date.

Taylor/Angell looks more promising. Theory suggests today as a Short Sell Day.

5min cpl= 10314

14:55 update: based on latest intraday high/low target for short = 10379, exit currently at 10175. These levels will be set after first hr of trading.

15:40 update: Exit target now 10185 by Weds close. Fairly bullish looking first hour....

17:29 update: .creeping up to 10350; will it break Sep 7th's high? May need to adjust short entry level if it double tops....

23:25: SS target missed by 29 points today - tomorrow's a buy day, should go down for the boys to pick up better deals and then head north.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 14th Sep

I've heard Mohan's calling today a Sell Day (that strat is based on Taylor, I think). This is characterised by Taylor as a day that trades at or near yesterday's highs....we'll see. I had today down as a Buy day, but was never totally sure...it will take a while to spot the pattern; many comment it's more of an art than science, when studying the charts.

15:00 update: 5 min cpl = 10316 and first 30 mins have been relatively static; -8 just now. Will look again at 15:30. Based on intraday prices so far the sell target entry is 10365ish. Won't have the exit target price until today's close.

15:45 update: 1st hr action just below the cpl BUT the 15:30 bar close was very close to it, which suggests a more neutral day and the possibility of trading a range all day - this would tie in with a Taylor Sell Day. No position yet.

18:00 update: ...have had 3 interpretations of which Taylor day it is today LOL. Anyhow, short order in from 10365.

21:35 update: No trade today. First hr directional filter proved of use yet again today. Anticipating a choppy but overall bullish day tomorrow. Thursday's are usually counter trend days, so ideally tomorrow will be bid up to an artificial high for shorts; covering on Thursday/Friday am. Then friday afternoon bidding up again for a strong monday - a general wkly pattern; can easily be sent off track though.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 15th Sep

Angell's 5-day Oscillator took a tumble yesterday but the daily On-Balance-Volume profile looks very healthy and has bounced back off the 30 MA - learnt the hard way to respect OBV for confirmation, on the daily charts especially.

Based on yesterday's action orders now in for today:

BUY: 10280 (target exit over next few days 10424)
SELL: 10364 (target exit over next few days 10219)

16:00 update: ...woaah! I'm long from 10280 and stops at 10180. If 180 goes then trend reversal (60 min chart) likely. 15 min chart shows double/triple bottom now and oversold - let's hope the guys & gals pick up enough before 180 and Plankys' pressure point prediction (over on the other channel) pans out - he's SAR from 225ish.

1st hr directional filter suggests a decent down trending day.

22:25 update: ....well, looks a solid buy day in retrospect. Came within a nats nad of 10225. What with Thursday's quite often being countertrend days, maybe tomorrow will give us the nudge up into profit....maybe I'm clutching at straws.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 16th Sep

15:52 update: ...that's better! 1st hrs action suggests a decent up day. Depending on how things look later on I may take profit. If this is a sell day then tomorrow could be a short sell day - friday's typically characterised by a quick rally first thing then an am run down and then pm bidding up.

Remaining v vigilant today.

 

[FetteredChinos]

given up on delta then mate? what does that say for today?

surely wednesday was the short sell day? therefore thursday/today is the buy day?

oh yes, any sign of that stuff from e-mule lol

 

[ChowClown]

hi FC - it's in the background but I lost the aternation pattern last week and since then I haven't tried picking it back up - the Taylor/Angell stuff looks more promising in terms of a system, although using delta with it could add some weight - I'll combine the two eventually. So, not sure what delta suggests for today.

On the Taylor front I had Weds as a Buy but it could be extending from the 3 day cycle - I'm looking at today as a Sell or SSell, in any case anticipating a decent rally.

I can email you a whole load of stuff today if you like to your personal email address - the max file size is 12Mb, are you OK with me sending this??

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 17th Sep

Looks as though the 3-day cycle is extending to 4/5. Have today as either a short sell (if 3 day) or sell (as an extension of yesterday's original sell day call). Expecting a rally in any case - won't take positions until after first hour.

Working on daily method rather than 3-day (test phase, not trading these yet) - targets after first 60 mins. In theory high probability that one or other will be hit during day.

BUY target: 10242 (291 or MOC)
SELL target: 10291 (242 or MOC)

 

[ChowClown]

DOW/FX

FX trading has been a focus over the last few days. Made the decision to swing/position trade DOW rather than day trade (for the time being). Noted last night that the daily DOW chart OBV still hasn't signalled a short - there could be a decent rally from current levels.

FX is prefered instrument (Cable and EUR) for intraday - using a simple MA method and pattern recog. Generates 1-2 decent signals a day. This will be the proving ground and all being well the basis of a full time trading plan.

 

[ChowClown]

FX/DOW

Been forward testing an intraday automated Cable & EUR system since last friday (17th Sep) - +169 pips so far.

DOW short (Dec) from 17th Sep (10260) +220 so far, SL 10109. Daily OBV still hasn't crashed through its' MA(30) and the SS(39,1,1) "The Last Stochastic", hasn't bust 50 yet either - will there be enough momentum to break 10K decisively enough I wonder......