ChowClown's Blog

[ChowClown]

Where next?

The DOW is likely to make a big move soon - can't tell at this stage which direction it will be. Next trade will be on confirmation of the BO - lost too much money last year anticipating direction. The only 'clue' is that one of the daily indicators has been oversold for several days.....

 

[ChowClown]

Mar Long Entry

Just went long Mar DOW @ 10584. Chart confirmation EOD from Friday.

Doesn't 'feel' right but got to be disciplined and trade what the chart tells me.

Stop loss at 10450.

Will begin to log forward testing of a DOW intraday 'mechanical system' based on 3 other systems I've studied recently. 5% max risk/trade; sells half stake after 10 points profit and moves stoploss to BE, closing EOD. Initial stoploss at 24 points plus spread.

9th Feb: BUY 10638 / SELL 10550 (Not Triggered)

10th Feb: BUY 10622 / SELL 10536 (BUY triggered but stopped out for -29 (includes 5pt spread))

11th Feb: BUY 10643 / SELL 10571 (BUY triggered, sold .5 stake after 10 pts and stoploss moved to BE, this part closed for +95 )

12th Feb: BUY 10801 / SELL 10695

 

[ChowClown]

Mar Long Update

Daily chart keeping me in this position for now, stoploss amended to 120 points.

15:03 stoploss moved to BE.

00:37 (12th Feb) - back from pub and had to look twice. Didn't expect this much movement, so will move stoploss up when capitalspreads opens in the morning, to try and lock in 100pts for the trade - currently at +133 pts.

09:19 (12th Feb) - max lock-in of 85 points for now.

13:14 (12th Feb) - max lock-in now at 97 points.

 

[ChowClown]

Mar Long Exit

14:41 12th Feb stop hit for +97. Lots of folk talking the DOW down from here.....I'll let the daily chart show the way. Heavily overbought now but the market remains strong in terms of volume and I shouldn't really be surprised how long these overbought periods are lasting. There will probably be a correction of a couple of 100 points but medium/long term the trend is firmly in place. My P&F chart has an objective of 11100.

 

[ChowClown]

Intraday Entries for Fri 13th Feb

BUY: 10737
SELL: 10692 (? check Futs 1st thing) Hit quite quickly after open, reversed to stop; hit again and kept in until close, to net +35 for the day.

12th Feb SELL trigger hit, for just +1.

 

[ChowClown]

New entry?

My DOW chart signalled a short EOD Friday. In at 10618 (Mar). 119 point stoploss.

 

[ChowClown]

17th Feb DOW intraday

BUY trigger hit at 10672 and closed EOD for +43.

 

[ChowClown]

18th Feb DOW intraday

BUY 10736 - not hit.
SELL 10672 - hit, but bounce gobbled up profit towards end of session for breakeven.

 

[ChowClown]

Revised daily system

Decided to use ORB rather than EOD for daily BUY/SELL triggers and indicators to help with gaps, using W%R and Slow Stochastics.

Mar short still in play but came very close to stoploss on Tuesday.
19th Feb: stopped out for -119.

 

[ChowClown]

19th & 20th Feb

19th -8
20th +26

Weekly total: +49

Performance update: 33% return since 9th Jan '04; drawdown acceptable (needs improvement); Average of 11 pts per day after spread.

 

[ChowClown]

System tweaks

Studied ADX/DMI and the Camarilla Equation this week. Some useful bits from both now bolted on. Forward testing from Monday.

 

[ChowClown]

Indicator update

Having studied Camarilla and other pivot points, decided they weren't for me. In isolation they're too unreliable, ADX/DI as a filter helps but the setup now used includes:

15 & 60 min charts

ADX/DI(10) - finds the trend and indicates it's strength.

RSI(14) - backs up DMI as well as providing 'early warning' through +/- divergence.

Parabolic SAR - helps with entry/exit and trailing stoploss, filtered nicely by DMI and RSI.

Now using IQCharts, rather than 'me hand-made autorefresh efforts.

 

[ChowClown]

FX & DOW

...should thank FC for reminder about journal entries, time has flown since March! Since then study has been more esoteric and has revealed some very interesting theories applied to the markets.

FX trading now through the 1-8am breakout strategy, derived from JT's original 'spot on' posts - in a drawdown period at present but reasonably confident in it's performance so far. Compounding should build the FXCM account nicely in the next year or two, hopefully before the strat completely falls over!

Also working on a DOW strat based on cycles - many thanks to a320/CJ and others who also frequent the 'other forum' and for their illuminating posts.

For Thursday's DOW, looking to sell into strength early in the session.

Friday: again, looking to sell into strength early on.

Using 1 min Bollinger Bands and RSI(14) and reasonably tight stops. Looking for 20 points then stops to breakeven.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW - 16th - 20th Aug

Thursday: +85
Friday: +45

Monday 16th pattern prediction: early low/ later high. BIG 'BUT': Cycle ended on Saturday so could see an inversion today - remain flexible....well, no inversion but difficult to get a decent entry on the pullbacks early on. Pts: only +24 from an above average range.

Tues 17th: Pattern suggests buying early. 10:30 GMT futs looked static, went long, took +40 at 13:40. Also went long from 9987 in the session but lost 16. +24 for the day. Weak pattern today.

Weds 18th: Early high, later low pattern, although another inversion possible today. Futs -30 (09:45 GMT). Might be tempted to take a pre-open short at a better price. Short at 10:45 from 9952 - interesting to note the Genesis system is eyeing a sharp fall today to the 9830 area - hope so. Strong inversion in the later session (19:00 onwards) - stop hit for -30. Interesting to note Genesis had it's stop hit today (-100). From memory of DC's earlier posts, this very rarely happens.

Thurs 19th: Earlier high, later low pattern predicted today. Futs currently a shade lower (09:10). Will wait to see how the first hr or so unfolds to assess pattern validity against the TA. Short at 10:15 from 10060. Covered for +10.

Fri 20th: Up day predicted today. Long from 10022 pre-open, targeting 10065. Target met +43. Done for today.

Daily Av: 14

 

[ChowClown]

DOW 23rd Aug

Pattern suggests an up day, futs unch/slightly +ve. Placed a small long this morning, looking for +20, perhaps before open......+20 only just scraped together. Looks as though Sunday (22nd) was an inversion.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW 24th Aug

Pattern suggests a +ve day - futs up 30 so far. No pre-open trade today. Looking to buy into weakness within the first 60-90 mins - must be flexible though.

Although the day ended in +ve territory (as per pattern) the long setup didn't materialise until much later than expected in the first half. Just managed to scrape together +12 for the day.

Looking forward to tomorrow - hard down looking likely...we'll see.

 

[FetteredChinos]

yikes...

did you get caught out with the sell-off?

after the rise on friday, consolidation monday, a down day looked on the cards.

hope your stops were tight!

FC

 

[ChowClown]

Had to watch closely today as even though my pattern suggested it would be a +ve day, it seemed reasoably clear from the internals that it probably wouldn't amount to much. I looked to buy into weakness in the early session, but the long setup didn't confirm until much later. I managed to sneak +12 before leaving the office.

yikes...

did you get caught out with the sell-off?

after the rise on friday, consolidation monday, a down day looked on the cards.

hope your stops were tight!

FC

 

[ChowClown]

DOW 25th Aug

-ve pattern today. Daily Cash futs +7 (10:10). Hoping for a good move down today, but will be trading what's seen.

Interesting day, caught a few points (+11) selling into strength early on, then abandoned the pattern for the rest of the day. Total: +48.

 

[ChowClown]

DOW 26th Aug

hmm, at sea with the pattern today. Ordinarily today gives the potential for inversion but as an opposite pattern unfolded yesterday, who knows.

Noted at least one Nexus follower looking for hard down yesterday too.

Great when the pattern works, but certainly need to be flexible and trade what unfolds.

No trade day.