Victor90, you did make it all the way to the second post, didnt you?
Yes, sorry, i noticed that it was in the discussion after i posted that question. Im sorry
Thats what makes these boards so great. Everybody gets to express their opinion. Just not sure what this has to do with this thread?
JTrader
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Well, since the name of the thread is "Can anyone recommend a strategy?". I think he wants to point out that one shouldent trade on liniar indicators, but trade on price movement. I think that can be relevant since its a tips to the guy who asked the question, not just to look at indicators, but looking at prices. Becuse prices is what speculating is about.
JTrader
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JPtrader, are you against MAs too?
Yes. I can draw a (trend)line that will signal the trend, and when the trend reverses. So see no need to complicate it beyond this with a formula based MA indicator, that again, does not relate to the candles on the chart (price action).
Hmmm...yea guess your right about that!
There is better to draw a trendline than a MA. The only problem is that i can draw a trendline most of the times, but sometimes im a bit unsure on how to draw it. Any tips for me?
JTrader
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Hmmm...yea guess your right about that!
Perhaps try drawing from the open/close rather than the high/low of the candle.
philhackett
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3x13x39
A good simple system to follow, to get in and out of markets?.
Remember the numbers 3 x 13 = 39
Exponential moving averages of 3,13 and 39 can keep you in and out of markets fairly efficiently and profitably, (in any time frame actually). I will show you how.
Some basic principles to hang on to are:
* The market moves in long (secular) trends which may last years, e.g. the present equity bull market dates from 1982.
* Intermediate trends lasting many months, even a couple of years or so.
* Short term trends lasting weeks or months.
* Trade intermediate trends in either direction.
* Trade short term trends only in the direction of the intermediate trend.
Proxies:
* 3 Day MA - a proxy for price
* 13 Day MA - a proxy for the short term trend (a moving trend line)
* 39 Day MA - a proxy for the intermediate trend (a moving trend line)
* 40 week, 200 day MA - a proxy for the secular trend (a moving Trend line)
The Basics of MAs
MAs lag market reversals at tops and bottoms, the larger the MA the longer the lag period, the shorter the MA the shorter the lag but the more frequent the whipsaws. MAs work well when markets trend but get frequently whipsawed when they are in a range.
Therefore, trade trends with the MAs but do not trade ranges using MAs. Just stand aside and be patient until a new trend emerges.
The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge.
Simple Trading Rules
1. When the 39 MA is moving up buy when the 3 MA crosses up over the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses above the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses above the 39 MA consider adding to your long position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 crosses back below the 13 MA..
2. When the 39 MA is moving down sell short when the 3 MA crosses below the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses below the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses below the 39 MA consider adding to your short position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 MA crosses back up over the 13 MA.
3. Only initiate trades in the opposite direction of the intermediate trend when the 3 MA crosses above or below the 39 MA, preferably after the 39 MA has already changed direction.
4. This 3:13 MA crossover will keep you trading in the trend with only a small lag and on the sidelines during corrections. The lag only becomes more substantial at reversals of the intermediate trend (a 3:39 crossover), a small price to pay at these uncertain times of trend transition.
Aids to Interpretation
* When the 3:13 crossovers occur at some distance from the 39 MA then you are 'likely' dealing with a short term correction (even though it can be substantial) to the 39 MA..
* If the 3:13 & 39 MAs are close and converging before crossing over you are 'likely' dealing with an intermediate (or significant) correction of the trend or reversal.
* 'Likely' means probable not 'you can bet the farm on it' surety. There is no sure thing just as there is absolutely no free lunch.
A good simple system to follow, to get in and out of markets?.
Remember the numbers 3 x 13 = 39
Exponential moving averages of 3,13 and 39 can keep you in and out of markets fairly efficiently and profitably, (in any time frame actually). I will show you how.
Some basic principles to hang on to are:
* The market moves in long (secular) trends which may last years, e.g. the present equity bull market dates from 1982.
* Intermediate trends lasting many months, even a couple of years or so.
* Short term trends lasting weeks or months.
* Trade intermediate trends in either direction.
* Trade short term trends only in the direction of the intermediate trend.
Proxies:
* 3 Day MA - a proxy for price
* 13 Day MA - a proxy for the short term trend (a moving trend line)
* 39 Day MA - a proxy for the intermediate trend (a moving trend line)
* 40 week, 200 day MA - a proxy for the secular trend (a moving Trend line)
The Basics of MAs
MAs lag market reversals at tops and bottoms, the larger the MA the longer the lag period, the shorter the MA the shorter the lag but the more frequent the whipsaws. MAs work well when markets trend but get frequently whipsawed when they are in a range.
Therefore, trade trends with the MAs but do not trade ranges using MAs. Just stand aside and be patient until a new trend emerges.
The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge.
Simple Trading Rules
1. When the 39 MA is moving up buy when the 3 MA crosses up over the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses above the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses above the 39 MA consider adding to your long position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 crosses back below the 13 MA..
2. When the 39 MA is moving down sell short when the 3 MA crosses below the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses below the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses below the 39 MA consider adding to your short position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 MA crosses back up over the 13 MA.
3. Only initiate trades in the opposite direction of the intermediate trend when the 3 MA crosses above or below the 39 MA, preferably after the 39 MA has already changed direction.
4. This 3:13 MA crossover will keep you trading in the trend with only a small lag and on the sidelines during corrections. The lag only becomes more substantial at reversals of the intermediate trend (a 3:39 crossover), a small price to pay at these uncertain times of trend transition.
Aids to Interpretation
* When the 3:13 crossovers occur at some distance from the 39 MA then you are 'likely' dealing with a short term correction (even though it can be substantial) to the 39 MA..
* If the 3:13 & 39 MAs are close and converging before crossing over you are 'likely' dealing with an intermediate (or significant) correction of the trend or reversal.
* 'Likely' means probable not 'you can bet the farm on it' surety. There is no sure thing just as there is absolutely no free lunch.
Jtrader, you have established the fact that you don't believe in anything other than price action, support and resistance and simple trend lines, I am sure there are many traders that do the same thing, I respect you and the others for trading the way you do.It does'nt make any difference to me how you trade or what you do. What rubs me the wrong way is your "Bible thumping" attitude of " Don't do that, don't use that, do it my way, it's the only way" It reminds me of my Grandson saying something like, My trendlines are better than your moving average....na..na.na.nana.
If the name of the thread was" please tell me what to avoid" then your post would have been in order.
Nobody has mentioned RSI,CCI,ADX.The only reference was to VISUALISE what a mess you would have if you stacked 9 or 10 MACD indicators on top of each other.
philhackett
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3x13x39
Remember the numbers 3 x 13 = 39
Simple daily moving averages of 3,13 and 39 can keep you in and out of markets fairly efficiently and profitably, (in any time frame actually). I will show you how.
Some basic principles to hang on to are:
* The market moves in long (secular) trends which may last years.
* Intermediate trends lasting many months, even a couple of years or so.
* Short term trends lasting weeks or months.
* Trade intermediate trends in either direction.
* Trade short term trends only in the direction of the intermediate trend.
Proxies:
* 3 Day MA - a proxy for price
* 13 Day MA - a proxy for the short term trend (a moving trend line)
* 39 Day MA - a proxy for the intermediate trend (a moving trend line)
* 40 week, 200 day MA - a proxy for the secular trend (a moving Trend line)
The Basics of MAs
MAs lag market reversals at tops and bottoms, the larger the MA the longer the lag period, the shorter the MA the shorter the lag but the more frequent the whipsaws. MAs work well when markets trend but get frequently whipsawed when they are in a range.
Therefore, trade trends with the MAs but do not trade ranges using MAs. Just stand aside and be patient until a new trend emerges.
The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge.
Simple Trading Rules
1. When the 39 MA is moving up buy when the 3 MA crosses up over the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses above the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses above the 39 MA consider adding to your long position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 crosses back below the 13 MA..
2. When the 39 MA is moving down sell short when the 3 MA crosses below the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses below the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses below the 39 MA consider adding to your short position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 MA crosses back up over the 13 MA.
3. Only initiate trades in the opposite direction of the intermediate trend when the 3 MA crosses above or below the 39 MA, preferably after the 39 MA has already changed direction.
4. This 3:13 MA crossover will keep you trading in the trend with only a small lag and on the sidelines during corrections. The lag only becomes more substantial at reversals of the intermediate trend (a 3:39 crossover), a small price to pay at these uncertain times of trend transition.
Sell Dec. Gold S&P 500 3x13x39
Aids to Interpretation
* When the 3:13 crossovers occur at some distance from the 39 MA then you are 'likely' dealing with a short term correction (even though it can be substantial) to the 39 MA..
* If the 3:13 & 39 MAs are close and converging before crossing over you are 'likely' dealing with an intermediate (or significant) correction of the trend or reversal.
* 'Likely' means probable not 'you can bet the farm on it' surety. There is no sure thing just as there is absolutely no free lunch.
Attachments
Is anyone actually following this strategy, if so how does the money management concept works out?? Most of the times when prices slides too far away from the 3rd deviation and only then it return to meet the 5min MA to break-even or give a small proportion of profit from the risk I have taken.. There is no stop-loss if yes then where to keep?? Although it looks like high probability win system, what are your views??
Pls guys I will really appreciate your efforts in answering this question.
Thanks!
Pls guys I will really appreciate your efforts in answering this question.
Thanks!
Stops and TP's I don't use.
If you find the 5 LWMA too fast, you can substitute an 18 LWMA.
Another option is to just use the 5 and 18 together as a crossover system.
Roy
apmf
If you find the 5 LWMA too fast, you can substitute an 18 LWMA.
Another option is to just use the 5 and 18 together as a crossover system.
Roy
Euro today
Here is how it works. At 7.30 am there was a blow off spike that I caught at 1.3640 going short. After I entered the trade I realised this was a reversal of 15 m time frame.
I could have taken profit at 1.3618 (the 18 on 1 min) but waited.
I could have taken profit at 1.3593 ( the 18 on 5 min) but waited.
I closed on weaknes at 1.3537 for 101.
Here is how it works. At 7.30 am there was a blow off spike that I caught at 1.3640 going short. After I entered the trade I realised this was a reversal of 15 m time frame.
I could have taken profit at 1.3618 (the 18 on 1 min) but waited.
I could have taken profit at 1.3593 ( the 18 on 5 min) but waited.
I closed on weaknes at 1.3537 for 101.
Attachments
Have you tried price action? I am paper trading with just price action right now and I have been profitable. So far it's discretionary, though I have ideas of how it can be automated - I'll be learning about mechanical systems when I start my masters degree next year
. So far I have learn't a lot from | Learn To Trade The Market | Forex Trading Course, Price Action StrategiesI would definately check it out if u haven't already.
apmf
If you find the 5 LWMA too fast, you can substitute an 18 LWMA.
Another option is to just use the 5 and 18 together as a crossover system.
Roy
Thanks a lot Roy, nice one! I can see that we can grab more profit but does that increases the maximum drawdowns, I mean when using 5ma the price usuallly makes 3 candles and returns back to 5ma giving out few pips profit or breakeven or with minor loss provided if we ignore huge trend formations. How will you differentiate it with using 18 or using it together as a crossover system?. I will test both these on the demo and will see how it works for me and hope it may give me an edge.
1.3537 exit great! Do you usually wait for MA crossovers inside the bands and when?
How do you know when to use 18 ma as exit or have you actually optimized your previous strategy and no longer following 5 period lwma as exit?
Apologies for asking so many questions, I am just a newbie starting to get my foot on system trading.
Once again thanks for sharing this strategy with us.
Ash
If you find the 5 LWMA too fast, you can substitute an 18 LWMA.
Another option is to just use the 5 and 18 together as a crossover system.
Roy
Thanks a lot Roy, nice one! I can see that we can grab more profit but does that increases the maximum drawdowns, I mean when using 5ma the price usuallly makes 3 candles and returns back to 5ma giving out few pips profit or breakeven or with minor loss provided if we ignore huge trend formations. How will you differentiate it with using 18 or using it together as a crossover system?. I will test both these on the demo and will see how it works for me and hope it may give me an edge.
1.3537 exit great! Do you usually wait for MA crossovers inside the bands and when?
How do you know when to use 18 ma as exit or have you actually optimized your previous strategy and no longer following 5 period lwma as exit?
Apologies for asking so many questions, I am just a newbie starting to get my foot on system trading.
Once again thanks for sharing this strategy with us.
Ash
fxoverdrive
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hi
check www.systems4trading.com
they have 1000s of indicators and systems for MetaStock, AmiBroker, TradeStation, MetaTrader and other software
check www.systems4trading.com
they have 1000s of indicators and systems for MetaStock, AmiBroker, TradeStation, MetaTrader and other software
