Sorry, can't go there. Wait till the book comes out in 20 years.
Notice this retracement just hit the 50 fib. I expect it to go to the 61.8 before falling
Sorry, can't go there. Wait till the book comes out in 20 years.
Notice this retracement just hit the 50 fib. I expect it to go to the 61.8 before falling
johnzxr, it's 1am here in Perth and I need all the beauty sleep I can get, believe me.
Maybe tommorow.
timsk
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Hi 0XTCi,
Thank you for a useful and interesting contribution. Normally, I'm not a fan of indicators, but I can see the value of the BB's as you describe. A few questions if I may . . .
1. If I've understood you correctly, trades are triggered upon the breach of the outer BB with 3 standard deviation. Given this, I'm not clear about the significance and use of the inner BB with 2 standard deviation?
2. With reference to the MA, I'm not sure what you mean by "linear, typical price.This is true price."? For very short periods (like 5), I favour an exponential MA and routinely set the source for the calculation to (H+L)/2, but I suspect this isn't what you meant! That said, I imagine it's not going to matter greatly?
Cheers,
Tim.
Thank you for a useful and interesting contribution. Normally, I'm not a fan of indicators, but I can see the value of the BB's as you describe. A few questions if I may . . .
1. If I've understood you correctly, trades are triggered upon the breach of the outer BB with 3 standard deviation. Given this, I'm not clear about the significance and use of the inner BB with 2 standard deviation?
2. With reference to the MA, I'm not sure what you mean by "linear, typical price.This is true price."? For very short periods (like 5), I favour an exponential MA and routinely set the source for the calculation to (H+L)/2, but I suspect this isn't what you meant! That said, I imagine it's not going to matter greatly?
Cheers,
Tim.
The Jig Saw begins
Hi timsk, Let me tackle 2) first. Linear wieghted I have found to be just a fraction faster than all the others, exponential included. The difference between Median, High + Low /2 and Typical, High + Low + close /3 is only apparent on the shorter MA like 5. With a 50 MA you will not see any change. The idea of using typical with the 5 is it gives a much closer reading of the true price. Imagine a 1 hour candle that had a high/low range of 60 points, no matter where the candle closes your median price calculation works on 30.(0 + 60/2) If the candle closed say 10 points from the high the Typical calculation is 0 + 60 +50 /3= 36.6 Just that much closer to where the candle actually finished.I hope that makes sense?
Now for 1) . First, although they may be classed as an "indicator", I prefer to think of Bollinger Bands (20,2) as the greatest "aid" that a trader could ever find.IMHO anybody who does not incorparate them into their charts is really missing out on when the markets are telling you what it's doing.
Bollinger Bands and time cycles,( waves ) go hand in hand, one cannot operate without the other. Before your post I was trying to think of a way to explain how to count waves to stuart and john, by sending them on a journey of self discovery, Guys if you read this I want you to google Hurst cycles, try and understand how they might apply to Forex,and get back to me with your thoughts.
timsk, I know this is not the answer you are looking for right now, but if you bear with me for a little while you will get your answer I promise you.
Hi timsk, Let me tackle 2) first. Linear wieghted I have found to be just a fraction faster than all the others, exponential included. The difference between Median, High + Low /2 and Typical, High + Low + close /3 is only apparent on the shorter MA like 5. With a 50 MA you will not see any change. The idea of using typical with the 5 is it gives a much closer reading of the true price. Imagine a 1 hour candle that had a high/low range of 60 points, no matter where the candle closes your median price calculation works on 30.(0 + 60/2) If the candle closed say 10 points from the high the Typical calculation is 0 + 60 +50 /3= 36.6 Just that much closer to where the candle actually finished.I hope that makes sense?
Now for 1) . First, although they may be classed as an "indicator", I prefer to think of Bollinger Bands (20,2) as the greatest "aid" that a trader could ever find.IMHO anybody who does not incorparate them into their charts is really missing out on when the markets are telling you what it's doing.
Bollinger Bands and time cycles,( waves ) go hand in hand, one cannot operate without the other. Before your post I was trying to think of a way to explain how to count waves to stuart and john, by sending them on a journey of self discovery, Guys if you read this I want you to google Hurst cycles, try and understand how they might apply to Forex,and get back to me with your thoughts.
timsk, I know this is not the answer you are looking for right now, but if you bear with me for a little while you will get your answer I promise you.
timsk
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Hi 30XTCi,
Thanks for the explanation.
Another journey of self discovery awaits us eh? Given the number I've already been on in recent years, I ought to be a truly enlightened being by now! :cheesy:
I've Googled Hurst Cycles and, other than the original text by Hurst himself, there doesn't appear to be a great deal out there other than various e-books published by people claiming to make Hurst's work intelligible for the layman and the mathematically challenged - i.e. people like me! Here's an example:
JM Hurst Cycle Trading
Did you have a specific text in mind? Anyway, I'll keep looking and, in the meantime, look forward to your next pearl of wisdom to help us all along the path to enlightenment.
Tim.
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Basics
timsk, I just wanted to point out the basics about how cycles operate,smaller ones within larger ones within even larger ones.
See attached, where are those guys, they're late, might have to move on without them.
Hi 30XTCi,
Thanks for the explanation.
Another journey of self discovery awaits us eh? Given the number I've already been on in recent years, I ought to be a truly enlightened being by now! :cheesy:
I've Googled Hurst Cycles and, other than the original text by Hurst himself, there doesn't appear to be a great deal out there other than various e-books published by people claiming to make Hurst's work intelligible for the layman and the mathematically challenged - i.e. people like me! Here's an example:
JM Hurst Cycle Trading
Did you have a specific text in mind? Anyway, I'll keep looking and, in the meantime, look forward to your next pearl of wisdom to help us all along the path to enlightenment.
Tim.
timsk, I just wanted to point out the basics about how cycles operate,smaller ones within larger ones within even larger ones.
See attached, where are those guys, they're late, might have to move on without them.
marlintrdg
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If your trading the forex majors, then EOD Price Action around a 21sma (for trend only)..
timsk
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Hi 30XTCi,
Tim.
Yeah, I saw the diagram on the net and, while I can see that there might be some application for the swing or position trader, I assume it's of no particular benefit to day traders? (I day trade U.S. stocks and SPY).
I didn't realise there was a timetable - perhaps the others don't either! I'm on my annual hol's for 2 weeks on Monday, so you'll have to continue this without me. Still, something for me to look forward to when I get back.. . .where are those guys, they're late, might have to move on without them.
Tim.
12 Seconds
timsk,I use Metatrader for charting, the smallest time frame being one minute. Inside a one minute cycle I have been able to identify five by 12 second cycles, all the way up to Monthly.Normally I work in 15min,30m,1Hr and 4 Hrs.
I have a question in general. What do you use to tell you when price has changed direction?:idea:
Anybody?
timsk,I use Metatrader for charting, the smallest time frame being one minute. Inside a one minute cycle I have been able to identify five by 12 second cycles, all the way up to Monthly.Normally I work in 15min,30m,1Hr and 4 Hrs.
I have a question in general. What do you use to tell you when price has changed direction?:idea:
Anybody?
marlintrdg
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Your going to have to sign up with Oanda to get the smaller time frames, the live account data from Oanda is better, super fast charts, very close to eSignal
I used it back in my naive lazy newbie "forex news" days..
Going deaf now
Anything less than fifteen minutes you need a good pair of ear plugs:cheesy:
What about direction?
Anything less than fifteen minutes you need a good pair of ear plugs:cheesy:
What about direction?
marlintrdg
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I only trade EOD in Forex, anything less that Daily is noise to me, but others seam to have good luck.
I use Price Action for most setups.
Have A look at OzFx's system before it went to subscription, he had a nice 4hr setup but it uses indicators..
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timsk
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Oh, O.K. I'm glad to hear I'm wrong about the timeframes!
I'm interested in your use of BB's because, as I understand it, BB's are displaced moving averages based on volatility. So, I'm thinking they are a different angle on what I'm currently doing, utilising similar raw ingredients, namely, two MA's and ATR.
I trade off a 5 minute chart mostly, but will also take trades using a 10 min' chart. I'll keep an eye on a 1 or 2 min' chart for extra granularity and a 30 min' chart for 'the big picture'.
The key MA is the shorter one: 18 EMA on a 5 min' chart and 9 EMA on a 10 min' chart. I arrived at this having conducted my own somewhat crude cycle analysis! Ignoring the first half hour of the day as orders from the previous day get filled, the remaining 360 minutes divides into 4 periods of 90 minutes each. Very roughly, on any given (non trending) day, there are roughly four tradable swings. The short EMA does a reasonable job at identifying those swings (18 x 5 = 90 and 9 x 10 = 90). The longer SMA's are 78 periods on a 5 min' chart and 39 on a 10 min' chart respectively. (78 x 5 = 390 and 39 x 10 = 390). The idea being that price will usually visit this longer MA at least once on any given (non trending) day. It's a bit crude but, again, it does a reasonable job of providing rough compass bearings for the day.
I aim to enter as close to the short trend line as possible (gold line on chart, attached) - going long above it and short beneath it. The ATR is an aid to position sizing and (like the BB's) indicates overbought and oversold situations. So, I won't go long if price is greater than 1 x ATR above the ema and visa versa for shorts. The exception to this rule is if price is more than 1 x ATR above the ema. If a good short set up is triggered, then I'll take the trade with the ema as a rough target. As you can see, the idea isn't dissimilar to the one you've already outlined. The attached chart is a case in point - short on the bloo X hairs. Also, it shows the shorter trendline does a reasonable job of keeping me on the right side of the main trends.
Tim.
Attachments
timsk, thanks for your post. I see the similarities. What I find interesting is the fact that your sytem is littered with some of my favourite Gann numbers. 9,18,90,360. During my R&D, over the course of about 12 months,I counted hundreds of thousands of candles. From highs to highs, lows to lows, highs to lows, lows to highs, not only on every time frame, but forwards AND BACKWARDS. After a while certain numbers at specific places start to form patterns.( If you try it, have a good supply of headache tablets and eye drops. ).
I only do Forex.I traded the Aussie ASX many years ago.Never looked at the SPY. From what you said I take it this market is open for 6-7 hours. Your 90 min average 5 min cycle also corresponds roughly to many pairs in FX when not much is happening.
Next comes the wave bit.
).I only do Forex.I traded the Aussie ASX many years ago.Never looked at the SPY. From what you said I take it this market is open for 6-7 hours. Your 90 min average 5 min cycle also corresponds roughly to many pairs in FX when not much is happening.
Next comes the wave bit.
Waves
johnzxr, I tried using Elliot Waves, and gave up in disgust, thinking they should have been called idiot waves.
No disrespect to anybody that uses them, if it floats yer boat.......
The problem I encountered was for every Elliotision (? Sp) that produced a chart, they all had a different wave count.They also had the ability to go back in time and change the present count to something else, or insert a "corrective abc or xyz" Hmmm. I wanted something more concrete, one time frame, one count, period.
It's not that easy to see the cycles on a chart, that take place on each time frame.In fact I did'nt even know they existed until one day, while extracting data from an excel spreadsheet, I produced a graph to plot the data. I almost had a heart attack!
It never ceases to amaze me how the time frames all work together. Try to visualise this: Take your everyday MACD. A positive wave (long) would be above the zero line, and below it a negative wave (short). Start with the Monthly and overlay onto it a weekly, then the daily, 4HR,1Hr,30m,15,5,and 1Min. Can you imagine the mess that would produce. Let's say half were long and half were short. This is exactly what the markets are like every day, and you wonder why they don't do what you think. Gotta go.
johnzxr, I tried using Elliot Waves, and gave up in disgust, thinking they should have been called idiot waves.
No disrespect to anybody that uses them, if it floats yer boat.......
The problem I encountered was for every Elliotision (? Sp) that produced a chart, they all had a different wave count.They also had the ability to go back in time and change the present count to something else, or insert a "corrective abc or xyz" Hmmm. I wanted something more concrete, one time frame, one count, period.
It's not that easy to see the cycles on a chart, that take place on each time frame.In fact I did'nt even know they existed until one day, while extracting data from an excel spreadsheet, I produced a graph to plot the data. I almost had a heart attack!
It never ceases to amaze me how the time frames all work together. Try to visualise this: Take your everyday MACD. A positive wave (long) would be above the zero line, and below it a negative wave (short). Start with the Monthly and overlay onto it a weekly, then the daily, 4HR,1Hr,30m,15,5,and 1Min. Can you imagine the mess that would produce. Let's say half were long and half were short. This is exactly what the markets are like every day, and you wonder why they don't do what you think. Gotta go.
JTrader
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I can't recommend one single strategy that i've ever seen posted on any public bulletin board.
I especially cannot recommend an approach that uses indicator such as RSI, MACD, ADX, CCI etc, as they tell you nothing about the chart/candlesticks in terms of Support/resistance, trend, trend reversal etc.
Novice traders are attracted to strategies that use indicators, as IF it works, it removes decision making repsonsibility away from the persons interpretation of what is happening with price. And if the indicator based strategy doesn't work, the person can just blame the indicators, and not accept personal responsibility, for not having the nouse/balls/will to learn about S/R & trend - the chart - the things that matter.
I especially cannot recommend an approach that uses indicator such as RSI, MACD, ADX, CCI etc, as they tell you nothing about the chart/candlesticks in terms of Support/resistance, trend, trend reversal etc.
Novice traders are attracted to strategies that use indicators, as IF it works, it removes decision making repsonsibility away from the persons interpretation of what is happening with price. And if the indicator based strategy doesn't work, the person can just blame the indicators, and not accept personal responsibility, for not having the nouse/balls/will to learn about S/R & trend - the chart - the things that matter.
the blades
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