British Inventor cracks currency markets

[trendie]

the July figures so far show a current running total of -1049 pips; over 12 days. only 2 winning days, and 10 losing ones.

the remaining 9 days need to recover this shortfall, otherwise this may become the first losing month.

I wonder if smalldog is still taking all the trades?
Is this due to the reduced volatility "Sell in May and go away"? In FX?

 

[Trader333]

Is this due to the reduced volatility "Sell in May and go away"? In FX?

No it is just down to poor trading in my view.



Paul

 

[trendie]

No it is just down to poor trading in my view.



Paul

 

[96pills]

is it a british company?? why do they sell in dollars and have American website.

 

[trendie]

Curiouser and curiouser.

They have decided to stop trading until the end of August.
Which is peculiar since their monthly results show August results. (of previous years)
Why change now? (because they're live?)

The other situation is that if they don't trade July then it will be the first losing month they have!

I am beginning to think trading is like quantum particles. When trading in backtest, the results are exceptional. But when trading in full glare of the public, the very act of observing the trading affects the results of the trading. :cheesy: (EDIT: invariably negatively. I haven't come across a system that works with mediocre results in backtest, but shows better results live. Why is that??)

 

[Trader333]

I haven't come across a system that works with mediocre results in backtest, but shows better results live. Why is that??)

Because no one would curve fit to mediocrity and so no system probably exists with that in mind. It is incredibly easy to get back test results to give astounding profits that will never work in real time.


Paul

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Because no one would curve fit to mediocrity

Paul, you've obviously never taken a close look at new_trader

 

[A Dashing Blade]

I am beginning to think trading is like quantum particles. When trading in backtest, the results are exceptional. But when trading in full glare of the public, the very act of observing the trading affects the results of the trading. . . .

Agree, I'm increasingly of the opinion that back-testing is a total waste of time and systems can only be developed inreal time ie by forward testing

 

[dazza2]

Theyre back

They're back in action with a new piece of software. Is anyone still using this service?

 

[trendie]

These guys are breakeven at the moment for September.
They need a stormer of the next 8 days to get anywhere near the averages for their system.
Have they changed their rules? They seem to be struggling at the moment.

 

[flux]

Agree, I'm increasingly of the opinion that back-testing is a total waste of time and systems can only be developed inreal time ie by forward testing

Hmmm, that's a bit extreme - surely there's nothing wrong with backtesting as long as you keep an adequate out of sample period for testing purposes?

Sorry, just flicked through this thread and thought I'd comment. Was kind of hoping for more updates on this, as I definitely won't fork out any money to these guys (or any others like them), but have been kind of curious how that kind of thing pans out...

S

 

[A Dashing Blade]

Hmmm, that's a bit extreme - surely there's nothing wrong with backtesting as long as you keep an adequate out of sample period for testing purposes?
. . .

Try it and see!
Seriously, there's somerthing akin to the quantum physics idea that observing something changes it.

With backtested trading strats, the act of actually trading them with real money changes the p/l (to the downside natch!)

 

[trendie]

They havent updated their September figures yet?
And the past few weeks have been not so good.
Too early to tell for October obviously.

 

[Diesel Muppet]

Does any one have any reliable info on this service?

 

[salvadorveiga]

i dont know if the past results are true or not, but i can totally relate to them regarding July. It was also my only losing month this year, while in May I gained 6,000 pips almost Julnewas pretty bad losing almost 1500 pips. It also depends on how I record my trades, I'm not a day trader, I at the time recorded the trades in the month of the opening date, so in May a lot of trades rolled to June that were closed in the first week or so of June. If I had recorded in a closing basis, it would be a positive month...

but i guess these problems don't apply to them right? they are day traders?

 

[trendie]

not that I care, since I dont take their signals, (but I use their results as baseline for my own performance)....

They seem to have removed some of their results daily results.
They had all the data for November, which would have been a relatively poor month; either a losing month, or marginal results; anyway, they have removed data from Nov-26th to Dec-7th inclusive.

This looks a bit fishy to me, unless there is an innocent explanation.
One of the things I had noticed, was that a GU trade was showing as heavily in profit, whereas the charts suggested a much lower return.
I cant remember which day or trade, so have no proof of this!!

Anyway, hopefully they can explain the discrepancy to their subscribers!