Brend's trading ideas

My indicator is showing buy signal. US dollar has strengthened across the board. Strong support at 1.0140 on the 10 min chart.

Bought 100,000 USD/CHF at 1.0166
Place a stop at 1.0120
Target level at 1.0215

USD/CHF went to 1.0215 so my position was closed at a profit. Realised profit is US$479.69.
 
Non-farm payroll (NFP) number is being released today at the exact same time that ECB President Trichet begins his press conference, which means that we could see unusual volatility at the morning of US hours. The ECB press conference and the Non-farm payroll report will either neutralize each other or be a toxic combination for the US dollar.

Trading the Non-farm payroll is usually very difficult given the inherent volatility of the currency pair but given the 2 big event risks – the ECB rate decision and the NFP release.

The market currently expects a bad number, so a negative non-farm payrolls report will not be enough of a surprise. The current forecast calls for 60k jobs to be shaved off US payrolls. If payrolls come any where near -90k, the dollar would collapse against the Euro as the market questions the viability of a 2008 rate hike by the Federal Reserve. If payrolls on the other hand are better than -40k, it suggests that the labor market is bad but not as bad as everyone may have feared, which would be dollar positive.


Currently I am holding 2 forex positions:
1. Shorted 100,000 NZD/USD at 0.7605, stop at 0.7645, target level at 0.7570.
Current price is 0.7604, unrealised gain is US$6.

2. Bought 100,000 USD/CHF at 1.0154, stop at 1.0120, target level at 1.0200.
Current price is 1.0159, unrealised gain is US$58.22.

Since I do not know the outcome Non-farm payroll and the ECB press conference, there are a few ways to reduce my risk:
a) I can close my positions before the announcement can miss out the opportunity to profit when my initial view is correct.
b) I can adjust my stop closer to my cost level but the great volatility from post NFP announcement can easily trigger stop to my positions.
c) I can hedge my position using binary options.

Binary option trading platform: MANSION118.


1. Since I had shorted NZD/USD, I had bought Over for the binary option. So this means that in the situation that NZD/USD rises, I lost money from my convention forex position, at least I still win some money from my binary option.

I had bought US$80 for NZD/USD Over trade for Daily expiration, strike price is 0.7649, odds is 3. This means if NZD/USD goes above 0.7649 by 5am China time, I will win US$240. If not I will lose US$80, but I may gain much more from my forex position.

2. I had done the same for USD/CHF. Since I had bought NZD/USD, I had bought US$80 Under for the binary option. So this means that in the situation that USD/CHF falls, I lost money from my convention forex position, at least I still win some money from my binary option.

I had bought US$80 for USD/CHF Under trade for Daily expiration, strike price is 1.014, odds is 1.78. This means if USD/CHF goes below 1.014 by 5am China time, I will win US$142.40. If not I will lose US$80, but again I may gain much more from my forex position.
 
LME Copper has reached the key resistance of $8900/mt, I think this price is too expensive for many consumers, this level is not sustainable.

US is going to announce Non-farm payroll and Unemployment rate today, I don't think they will be good figure. Bad data is expected to push commodities prices lower.

Shorted 1 lot of Comex Copper mini at 4.0175
Stop level at 4.0800
Target level at 3.9300
Value of 1 point = US$12500

Copper chart: Metal Trading: Short Comex copper mini at 4.0175
 
Strong support at 1.0140 on the 10 min chart.
USDCHF moves down again represents good opportunity to buy again.

Bought 100,000 USD/CHF the 3rd time, this time at 1.0153
Stop level at 1.0120
Target level at 1.0200

Chart shows clear that a support is formed:
Binary Trading: Bought 100,000 USD/CHF the 3rd time

Yesterday I had bought 100,000 USD/CHF at 1.0153, stop level at 1.0120, target level at 1.0200.

USDCHF goes below 1.0120, so my position was stopped out. Realised loss is US$326.97.

Today I had bought US$80 for USD/CHF Under trade for Daily expiration, strike price is 1.014, odds is 1.78. This means if USD/CHF goes below 1.014 by 5am China time, I will win US$142.40. If not I will lose US$80.

This option is meant to hedge my USDCHF position. Since my USDCHF is stopped out, now I hope that this option will be a winning trade to cover some of my losses.
 
LME Copper has reached the key resistance of $8900/mt, I think this price is too expensive for many consumers, this level is not sustainable.

US is going to announce Non-farm payroll and Unemployment rate today, I don't think they will be good figure. Bad data is expected to push commodities prices lower.

Shorted 1 lot of Comex Copper mini at 4.0175
Stop level at 4.0800
Target level at 3.9300
Value of 1 point = US$12500

Copper chart: Metal Trading: Short Comex copper mini at 4.0175

Seeing that USD has stopped strengthening, I decide to take profit at 3.9720. Realised profit is US$568.75.

Copper chart: Metal Trading: Short Comex copper mini at 4.0175 (Closed)
 
My indicator showing sell signal today.
Fear factor in the market will continue to strengthen JPY.

Hourly chart showing overbought region, so I think its time to short this pair.

Shorted 100,000 EURJPY at 167.69
Stop level at 168.62
Target level at 166.50
 
Double top formed for gold, indicator also signal sell.

Shorted 1 lot of gold at 931.13
Stop loss at 946.00
Target level at 920.00

Chart: Metal Trading: Shorted 1 lot of gold at 931.13

On 4th July, I had shorted 1 lot of gold at 931.13, stop loss at 946.00, target level at 920.00.

Hourly gold chart shows oversold so I decide to take profit at 926.63. Realised profit is US$450.

I will short gold again if it rises to the resistance level of $933.
 
My indicator showing sell signal today.
Fear factor in the market will continue to strengthen JPY.

Hourly chart showing overbought region, so I think its time to short this pair.

Shorted 100,000 EURJPY at 167.69
Stop level at 168.62
Target level at 166.50

On 4th July, I had shorted 100,000 EURJPY at 167.69, stop level at 168.62, target level at 166.50.

EURJPY keeps going up, so I decided to cut loss at 168.23, realised loss is US$534.49.

Chart:Binary Trading: Shorted 100,000 EURJPY at 167.69 (Closed)
 
Germany industrial production is negative 2.40%, below expectation of positive 0.30%. This has weakened EUR.

Shorted 100,000 EURJPY at 168.18
Stop loss at 169.00
Target level at 167.50

See here: Binary Trading: Shorted 100,000 EURJPY at 168.18

Yesterday I had shorted 100,000 EURJPY at 168.18, stop loss at 169.00, target level at 167.50.

Today EURJPY goes below 167.50, so my target limit is filled. Realised profit is US$626.84.
 
My indicator shows sell signal for silver and this indicator has achieved very good profits in my back-test.

I had advised my ex-customers actively on silver trading when I was a commodity sales because silver is much more gentle and predictable compared to gold. And many customers believe that silver has much more upside compared to gold in the precious metal family.

Shorted 1000 units of Silver at 17.98
Stop level at 18.09
Target level at 17.40
Value of 1 point is US$1000
 
My indicator shows sell signal for silver and this indicator has achieved very good profits in my back-test.

I had advised my ex-customers actively on silver trading when I was a commodity sales because silver is much more gentle and predictable compared to gold. And many customers believe that silver has much more upside compared to gold in the precious metal family.

Shorted 1000 units of Silver at 17.98
Stop level at 18.09
Target level at 17.40
Value of 1 point is US$1000

On 7 July, I had shorted 1000 units of Silver at 17.98, stop level at 18.09, target level at 17.40.

Good support at 17.60, silver price seems like not going lower. So decide to take profit at 17.72. Realised profit is US$260.

Chart: Metal and Stock Indicies Trading: Shorted 1000 units of Silver at 17.98 (Closed)
 
My indicator is showing buy signal and hourly chart is showing positive signal as well. Fed Chairman is giving a speech now, expects some solution on the credit crunch crisis, will strengthen USD temporary.

Bought 100,000 USDCHF at 1.0263
Stop at 1.0210
Target level at 1.0330
 
My indicator is showing buy signal and hourly chart is showing positive signal as well. Fed Chairman is giving a speech now, expects some solution on the credit crunch crisis, will strengthen USD temporary.

Bought 100,000 USDCHF at 1.0263
Stop at 1.0210
Target level at 1.0330

US May pending home sales is negative 4.7%, worse than expectation of negative 3%. To me this is a lousy data for USD, so I decide to take profit on USDCHF, sold at 1.0286. Profit is US$223.60.

At the point of writing this, USDCHF is still going up. So traders may want to monitor the position yourself to get a better selling level.
 
GBP fell against EUR after an industry survey showed confidence among Britain's consumers dropped in June to the lowest level in at least 4 years.

I personally think with the current weakness in UK economy, GBP is overvalued.

Bought 50,000 EURGBP at 0.7967
Stop loss at 0.7937
Target level at 0.7990
 
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