Belflan's US stock swing trades

[belflan]

what moved the market?

was it = Stocks Close Lower as Oracle Spurs Concerns - Market Overview * US * News * Story - MSNBC.com

question?

what size does a company have to be, for its news to move the market?

Oracle's market cap $100B

Glen

 

[Charlton]

what moved the market?

was it = Stocks Close Lower as Oracle Spurs Concerns - Market Overview * US * News * Story - MSNBC.com

question?

what size does a company have to be, for its news to move the market?

Oracle's market cap $100B

Glen

Glen

I think Oracle is a special case. It's database system is used extensively across the world as well as its packaged solutions and business intelligence reporting systems. Thus, if it forecasts lower sales it is not just its own situation upon which it is making a pronouncement, but also its own view on the market in general. Companies tend to invest less/postpone investment in business systems if they fear for the future.

It is a barometer for the market because of its unique insight into other companies' intentions.

Charlton

 

[belflan]

Glen

I think Oracle is a special case. It's database system is used extensively across the world as well as its packaged solutions and business intelligence reporting systems. Thus, if it forecasts lower sales it is not just its own situation upon which it is making a pronouncement, but also its own view on the market in general. Companies tend to invest less/postpone investment in business systems if they fear for the future.

It is a barometer for the market because of its unique insight into other companies' intentions.

Charlton

Interesting, thanks,

I would like to get a list together of the companies that (if there’s announcement about them) potentially could move the market (ie Microsoft, etc and now Oracle) not sure if this is of value or not

I’m thinking, I’m long scalp AAPL or RIMM, quite big position size say, breaking news on CNBC “Oracle's (or whoever) next quarter results will be Crap” = EXIT! EXIT! EXIT!

Glen

 

[belflan]

These are not trades (not even paper trades)

if entered these 14 trades would be $2,013 up

just keeping on eye on them

Glen

Running total (of non trades)

= $2,459

just keeping on eye on them


Market looks like it may test bottom?

Glen

 

[belflan]

according to CNBC JC Penney profit warning was the news that moved the market today

$9B market cap. (not that big)

maybe a sign of customer spending for the whole sector?

or maybe CNBC looking for a story on slow news day?

 

[Grey1]

To day was one of the easiest trading day I have ever had,,, FIbbo and myself did really well simply because there was no SPIKE in the market to ruin our daily analysis which is a rare event now a days ,,

I am still in cash on my swing and will let the board know when i take a position

Grey1

 

[belflan]

To day was one of the easiest trading day I have ever had,,, FIbbo and myself did really well simply because there was no SPIKE in the market to ruin our daily analysis which is a rare event now a days ,,

I am still in cash on my swing and will let the board know when i take a position

Grey1

Hi Grey,

fill us in on your/fibbo's daily analysis, go on...

cheers
Glen

 

[rajibde]

To day was one of the easiest trading day I have ever had,,, FIbbo and myself did really well simply because there was no SPIKE in the market to ruin our daily analysis which is a rare event now a days ,,

I am still in cash on my swing and will let the board know when i take a position

Grey1

Hi Iraj,

I'd be interested to know about the daily analysis too. I did lose in one of the intraday trades today- took a long in Drys (with all other conditions met) and the stock seemed to capitulate twice -luckily due to daily analysis, I had a swing short open in Bhi which saw me come out with a gain for the day....rest intradays were in a profit but the loss with drys was very quick and wiped out the intraday profits and half of swing for the day...I'll need to check and see what can be done in the future to avoid this...

Raj

 

[Grey1]

Hi Iraj,

I'd be interested to know about the daily analysis too. I did lose in one of the intraday trades today- took a long in Drys (with all other conditions met) and the stock seemed to capitulate twice -luckily due to daily analysis, I had a swing short open in Bhi which saw me come out with a gain for the day....rest intradays were in a profit but the loss with drys was very quick and wiped out the intraday profits and half of swing for the day...I'll need to check and see what can be done in the future to avoid this...

Raj

The reason for your loss was getting the market direction wrong .. some days it is impossible to know where market is heading because of huge number of news, events, in the market which produces excess volatility which traders are not used to like myself and as a result your chance of getting the direction correct is not more than 50/50.
I give you few guid lines to help in getting the direction right.

1) a weak market plays it strong for the first hour or so , This is due to massive sell orders which floods the market so the market must go up by definition ,,( institutional Sell orders are often not at the market price and are way above the market hence the initial few hours strength in the market )
2) look for 1 single catalyst which drives the market ,, if it is negative but market going up then you can assume in the after noon market SELLS

3) under no circumstances and i mean this get your analysis for market direction from 1 min chart,, This is mistake . get it from 10 min and daily .

4) watch the bad and good economic news.. if a Good news hit the market and market spiked up and later went down to its original point then the market is weak .i know it is too obvious but better to be said than not ,

5) if market capitulates before open then GO LONG after the 30-45 minutes

You don't have to win every day,, we all are mortals and please don't think I have all the answers because I don't . It is not about learning more , It is about understanding that this is the games of ODDS and a good trader will eventually comes on top even if he losses 10 days in a row,,

DONNOT GIVE UP

Grey1

 

[Glenn]

The reason for your loss was getting the market direction wrong .. some days it is impossible to know where market is heading because of huge number of news, events, in the market which produces excess volatility which traders are not used to like myself and as a result your chance of getting the direction correct is not more than 50/50.
I give you few guid lines to help in getting the direction right.

1) a weak market plays it strong for the first hour or so , This is due to massive sell orders which floods the market so the market must go up by definition ,,
2) look for 1 single catalyst which drives the market ,, if it is negative but market going up then you can assume in the after noon market SELLS

3) under no circumstances and i mean this get your analysis for market direction from 1 min chart,, This is mistake . get it from 10 min and daily .

4) watch the bad and good economic news.. if a Good news hit the market and market spiked up and later went down to its original point then the market is weak .i know it is too obvious but better to be said than not ,

5) if market capitulates before open then GO LONG after the 30-45 minutes

You don't have to win every day,, we all are mortals and please don't think I have all the answers because I don't . It is not about learning more , It is about understanding that this is the games of ODDS and a good trader will eventually comes on top even if he losses 10 days in a row,,

DONNOT GIVE UP

Grey1

Thanks Grey1.
May I add something which I find very useful from looking at the Macci on the INDU charts - 5 and 10 minutes.
When the Macci turns down from lower than OB( e.g. +80), it is a sign of Market weakness.
When the Macci turns up from above OS (e.g. -70) it is a sign of Market strength.
Thursday afternoon and Friday was a good example of showing weakness - see pic.
Glenn

 

[Grey1]

Thanks Grey1.
May I add something which I find very useful from looking at the Macci on the INDU charts - 5 and 10 minutes.
When the Macci turns down from lower than OB( e.g. +80), it is a sign of Market weakness.
When the Macci turns up from above OS (e.g. -70) it is a sign of Market strength.
Thursday afternoon and Friday was a good example of showing weakness - see pic.
Glenn

I agree. This is correct and very technical ..if market was technical ONLY then it would be great but it is not,,. As long as traders realise that there is a room and place for every thing and if your analysis failed it does not mean there is some thing wrong with the foundation of your analysis and it could only be some unforseen COMET hitting the market.
I give you an example,, I was short FSLR friday and suddenly there was a NEWS alert on solar companies massive deal with EDISON ( I think) on CNBC . I got caught in a SINGLE $3 bar ,, so what did I do ,, I closed with $2100 loss and shorted again when the dust settled with around $4500 gain ,, My point is this.. Traders must not throw analysis away because of the COMETS hitting the market or the stock and as Glenn correctly pointed out there are many technical ways of gauging WEAKNESS and STRENGTH in the market but at the same time an experienced trader MUST realise and UNDERTSTAND HOW market works and not get disappointed if HIS strategy failed to make $$$ on the day ,,,

Today I got an email from one of the TOP TRADERS on this BB which has had NO LOSING DAY since 12th of March .. Good on ya/ This is the point for having a BB like this to help each other,, Well done buddy

Grey1

 

[rajibde]

The reason for your loss was getting the market direction wrong .. some days it is impossible to know where market is heading because of huge number of news, events, in the market which produces excess volatility which traders are not used to like myself and as a result your chance of getting the direction correct is not more than 50/50.
I give you few guid lines to help in getting the direction right.

1) a weak market plays it strong for the first hour or so , This is due to massive sell orders which floods the market so the market must go up by definition ,,( institutional Sell orders are often not at the market price and are way above the market hence the initial few hours strength in the market )
2) look for 1 single catalyst which drives the market ,, if it is negative but market going up then you can assume in the after noon market SELLS

3) under no circumstances and i mean this get your analysis for market direction from 1 min chart,, This is mistake . get it from 10 min and daily .

4) watch the bad and good economic news.. if a Good news hit the market and market spiked up and later went down to its original point then the market is weak .i know it is too obvious but better to be said than not ,

5) if market capitulates before open then GO LONG after the 30-45 minutes

You don't have to win every day,, we all are mortals and please don't think I have all the answers because I don't . It is not about learning more , It is about understanding that this is the games of ODDS and a good trader will eventually comes on top even if he losses 10 days in a row,,

DONNOT GIVE UP

Grey1

Thanks a lot Iraj -it gives me a much better understanding. Yesterday's 'Drys' trade added to the experience -the indu 10 min actually did start to turn back down after 25% of up movement (approx)-this is what made me decide to get out of the trade but it had gone down very fast and hence the loss on that trade....anyway on the day I was up (a bit of a luck there which helped due to the swing position)

Thanks and best wishes.

Raj

 

[belflan]

Excellent stuff guys, this is just the type of discussion that helps me no end

thanks to all
Glen

 

[wheezergeezer]

Excellent stuff guys, this is just the type of discussion that helps me no end

thanks to all
Glen

I second that ...........thanks you all for taking the time and effort t post..........

 

[belflan]

Running total (of non trades)

= $2,459

just keeping on eye on them


Market looks like it may test bottom?

Glen

running total on these babies = $2,126

 

[robq]

"1) a weak market plays it strong for the first hour or so , This is due to massive sell orders which floods the market so the market must go up by definition ,,( institutional Sell orders are often not at the market price and are way above the market hence the initial few hours strength in the market )"

Grey1, Can you please elaborate. Does this mean that brokers accept sell orders from institutional clients at above market price and then manipulate market price so that they can sell at the higher price?

Rob

 

[Grey1]

"1) a weak market plays it strong for the first hour or so , This is due to massive sell orders which floods the market so the market must go up by definition ,,( institutional Sell orders are often not at the market price and are way above the market hence the initial few hours strength in the market )"

Grey1, Can you please elaborate. Does this mean that brokers accept sell orders from institutional clients at above market price and then manipulate market price so that they can sell at the higher price?

Rob

Hi

They are not manipulating . Years ago there was a debate about MMs manipulation but I always saw that at the way business was conducted not only in the stock market but also in any auction market.
Any way , let me explain ,,,Now a days most business is conducted through special program trades called VWAP Engine,. The task of a VWAP Engine is to distribute the large order with little impact on stock price without other traders noticing the Trade activity .
If Futures have been in a down trend prior to stock market open the sell orders queue up to exit previous open positions. Different Mms use different VWAP engines to trigger their order . Due to the large size, VWAP engines must push the price up so they can fragment and distribute the large order on the way down ,,,. therefore market seems spiking up and looking very strong .. Remember futures have been weak all night ,, All Asian market are weak but suddenly US stock market is strong .. How can that be true ,, Well it is not,, market is weak but acting as strong to fill the large sell orders,,

OK lets get into the MIND of a DAY TRADER. Day traders are human ,, They tend to believe what they see,, This is the nature of human being ,, He looks at his 1 min chart and watches the price action trying to make head and tail of the market direction , and with the first sign of couple spikes up he makes up his mind as market to be strong , He goes long and as soon as the VWAP engines filled their orders the market sells off and the day trader is crashed.

Now you can see where i come from when i say weak market plays it strong,,

lesson 1 . Donot even think you can judge the market direction by looking at price action on 1 min chart. You cannot do that , Newbies do .
Lesson 2 it is not always easy to find the markek direction soon enough to capitalise on the move

Lesson 3 if you are just guessing then you are gambling . It might pays off and it might not.

I TOO often have difficulty for very long time to gauge the market direction ,,, SO we are all in the same boat . ( this some times is due to huge NEWS around the market or too many contradicting analysis thrown at traders on CNBC or other medias _

Grey1

 

[moreagr]

Hi

They are not manipulating . Years ago there was a debate about MMs manipulation but I always saw that at the way business was conducted not only in the stock market but also in any auction market.
Any way , let me explain ,,,Now a days most business is conducted through special program trades called VWAP Engine,. The task of a VWAP Engine is to distribute the large order with little impact on stock price without other traders noticing the Trade activity .
If Futures have been in a down trend prior to stock market open the sell orders queue up to exit previous open positions. Different Mms use different VWAP engines to trigger their order . Due to the large size, VWAP engines must push the price up so they can fragment and distribute the large order on the way down ,,,. therefore market seems spiking up and looking very strong .. Remember futures have been weak all night ,, All Asian market are weak but suddenly US stock market is strong .. How can that be true ,, Well it is not,, market is weak but acting as strong to fill the large sell orders,,

OK lets get into the MIND of a DAY TRADER. Day traders are human ,, They tend to believe what they see,, This is the nature of human being ,, He looks at his 1 min chart and watches the price action trying to make head and tail of the market direction , and with the first sign of couple spikes up he makes up his mind as market to be strong , He goes long and as soon as the VWAP engines filled their orders the market sells off and the day trader is crashed.

Now you can see where i come from when i say weak market plays it strong,,

lesson 1 . Donot even think you can judge the market direction by looking at price action on 1 min chart. You cannot do that , Newbies do .
Lesson 2 it is not always easy to find the markek direction soon enough to capitalise on the move

Lesson 3 if you are just guessing then you are gambling . It might pays off and it might not.

I TOO often have difficulty for very long time to gauge the market direction ,,, SO we are all in the same boat . ( this some times is due to huge NEWS around the market or too many contradicting analysis thrown at traders on CNBC or other medias _

Grey1

very informative explanation Grey1.. thank you! my learning never stops.

 

[Trader333]

I agree a very useful post , Thanks Iraj


Paul

 

[belflan]

Futures Rise on Banks Enthusiasm - Market Overview * US * News * Story - MSNBC.com

higher open due to large sell orders?

Glen