yes opened today based on above post
my understanding is that you are still 100% short, looking for a drop to the 11600 level to close 75% of your position
the only reason i am not already short is due to the software problems
Glen
yes opened today based on above post
my understanding is that you are still 100% short, looking for a drop to the 11600 level to close 75% of your position
the only reason i am not already short is due to the software problems
Glen
no, there still swing trades, just shorter term. (you must think it is wrong to do this, I'll look for an exit)
cheers
Glen
Thanks for your post Grey1,
What you say above seems obvious to me now,
however I think it only seems obvious to me now, because you posted it.
maybe this is why traders struggle with your strategies, unless you mentor them
Also as you've said before trying to do this part-time will probibly not work (full time commitment is required)
cheers
Glen
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I took a bit of a break from the markets after this post from Grey during the week and a silly trade by me also which cost me $500 on the 17th (paper account)
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tec...medium-term-grey-s-analysis-4.html#post407220
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tec...medium-term-grey-s-analysis-4.html#post407220
''risk associated with NEW levels of volatility which is beyond historical cycle on the weekly , Monthly and daily chart. These levels could even further increase and the down ward reward no longer justifies to have an open position ,,''
''I am not going to take any position till the volatility reduces as well as the market mode turns into technical from purely a NEWS and DATA driven market,, ''
The above comments were written by Grey1,
Attached is the Daily and weekly charts for the INDU, with ATR showing 290 on daily chart and 571 on weakly chart. (i need to get more data to see how signficant this volatility is with regard to the history of the INDU, although it looks very high)
I also need to understand better what Grey1 means about ''downward reward no longer justifies to have an open position''
How is he measuring 'downward reward' (prices of stocks within his portfolio against his target prices?) does he think this could be the bottom (many of his targets already hit)
so Grey1 is sitting on the sidelines for the minute (for Swings) and who would argue / trade against Grey's view point?
in my inexperience I would be thinking that the MACCI daily is heading O/B and I would be looking for a short entry on its turn (but only a fool IMHO would go against Grey's take on US stocks,)
so for now i'm out
I've learnt a huge amount in a short period of time thanks to G1 and the members of this board
Glen
''I am not going to take any position till the volatility reduces as well as the market mode turns into technical from purely a NEWS and DATA driven market,, ''
The above comments were written by Grey1,
Attached is the Daily and weekly charts for the INDU, with ATR showing 290 on daily chart and 571 on weakly chart. (i need to get more data to see how signficant this volatility is with regard to the history of the INDU, although it looks very high)
I also need to understand better what Grey1 means about ''downward reward no longer justifies to have an open position''
How is he measuring 'downward reward' (prices of stocks within his portfolio against his target prices?) does he think this could be the bottom (many of his targets already hit)
so Grey1 is sitting on the sidelines for the minute (for Swings) and who would argue / trade against Grey's view point?
in my inexperience I would be thinking that the MACCI daily is heading O/B and I would be looking for a short entry on its turn (but only a fool IMHO would go against Grey's take on US stocks,)
so for now i'm out
I've learnt a huge amount in a short period of time thanks to G1 and the members of this board
Glen
Attachments
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Running total (Review)
Review of test
Total trades so far = 21
Winning trades = 15
Losing trades = 6
Account at start (30th Jan 2007) = $30,000
Account size today = $36,087
therefore profit to date = $6,087 (approx 20% increase on a/c size)
__________________________________________________________
E-Curve
Largest peek to valley draw down = $3,248
Largest valley to peek rise = $8,492
___________________________________________________________
lessons learnt / things to be worked on
1. I must be more patient when waiting for technicial market set up's / entries
2. I must continue to listen to Grey1's advice
3. must continue to develop my skills in reading market's fundamental direction (based on interest rates, housing etc)
4. Must continue to study and watch market cycles (and the role of volatility within cycles)
5. And when I get time will develop my stock section skills (based on FA, CAPM etc)
Glen
Review of test
Total trades so far = 21
Winning trades = 15
Losing trades = 6
Account at start (30th Jan 2007) = $30,000
Account size today = $36,087
therefore profit to date = $6,087 (approx 20% increase on a/c size)
__________________________________________________________
E-Curve
Largest peek to valley draw down = $3,248
Largest valley to peek rise = $8,492
___________________________________________________________
lessons learnt / things to be worked on
1. I must be more patient when waiting for technicial market set up's / entries
2. I must continue to listen to Grey1's advice
3. must continue to develop my skills in reading market's fundamental direction (based on interest rates, housing etc)
4. Must continue to study and watch market cycles (and the role of volatility within cycles)
5. And when I get time will develop my stock section skills (based on FA, CAPM etc)
Glen
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Grey1
Senior member
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Volatility and the number of FED related news is huge and I personally have not seen any thing like it last past 8 years. I therefore only intra day trade with much smaller size than my swings.
Recession is not going away and cannot be deleted with interest rate cut OVER NIGHT . The steps taken by FED only increases MARKET VOLATILITY for short term traders like ourselves,, so perhaps it is best to stay out and be in CASH until we can tame the volatility or we have further evidence of credit crunch spillage across other sectors such as TECH which we still know very very little about ,,
Grey1
Durable Goods Drop 1.7% as Economy Slows - Economy * US * News * Story - MSNBC.com
durable good figure worst than expected (adding to the view there may be a good chance of correction?)
we'll see
durable good figure worst than expected (adding to the view there may be a good chance of correction?)
we'll see
Hi Paul,
i guess you have to make a call one way or the other, or you would never enter a trade
cheers
Glen
Glenn
Experienced member
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There are many times when you can't make a call because you don't have the kind of information you are looking for.
"I don't know" is a call.
Staying out is a position.
Waiting is a big part of trading.
Glenn
agree, i guess the waiting bit comes with experince, something i need to work on
cheers
Glen
These are not trades (not even paper trades)
if entered these 14 trades would be $2,013 up
just keeping on eye on them
Glen
