Belflan's US stock swing trades

belflan said:
Grey,

you out yet?????????????/

View attachment 31587


nice one!!!!!!!!11
Click to expand...

I got out @ open but shorted MBI again and am still short MBI . A very very nice profit ..
MBI will blow down in 3 month and not break down this is why I am large postion short of this stock in my Ameritrade account. I suggest investors look into shorting this stock after Sanata's rally ( JAN) and leave it for 3 month . The first target for the stock based on new info I got from my previous work place is $12.50 with a second target of $6.20. what happend to CTX should happen to MBI ,,,


Other good few month shorts are ABK and TSCO ..


grey1
 
Lets hope Buffett is wrong ... at least in the next 3 days

Adding to the TSCO discussion from Leovirgo

From Grey1's swing rules/guidelines

1) if MACCI daily is 100 + on Friday

DAILY MACCI was around +90 on Wednesday and turned down into Thursday.
If this is mechanical then we do not select the stock? TSCO is trending down and is
not likely to reach +100 very easily. 13 week resgression is sloping down and TSCO
was weak compared to market direction.

2) Day 1 stock is in negative lets say on Monday

TSCO down on Thursday against market direction

3) At around 8UK time stock is near low of the day ( on Monday again )

Stock at low of day towards Thursday close

4) Open a postion just before market close ( on Monday )

Short 39.60 @ 20:56pm UK time
Stop (using 1.5 x daily ATR) = 41.26
Target is 3 x stop = 34.60

5) close postion on Wednesday
Close position on Tuesday if target not met

Jonathan
 

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jdbzero said:
Adding to the TSCO discussion from Leovirgo

From Grey1's swing rules/guidelines

1) if MACCI daily is 100 + on Friday

DAILY MACCI was around +90 on Wednesday and turned down into Thursday.
If this is mechanical then we do not select the stock? TSCO is trending down and is
not likely to reach +100 very easily. 13 week resgression is sloping down and TSCO
was weak compared to market direction.

2) Day 1 stock is in negative lets say on Monday

TSCO down on Thursday against market direction

3) At around 8UK time stock is near low of the day ( on Monday again )

Stock at low of day towards Thursday close

4) Open a postion just before market close ( on Monday )

Short 39.60 @ 20:56pm UK time
Stop (using 1.5 x daily ATR) = 41.26
Target is 3 x stop = 34.60

5) close postion on Wednesday
Close position on Tuesday if target not met

Jonathan
Click to expand...

My bad..!! I thought TSCO was Tesco from LSE. TSCO from NDQ is tractor supply co.!! :cheesy:
 
From Grey1's swing rules/guidelines

1) if MACCI daily is 100 + on Friday

Don't know were the MACCI is today (haven't got TS set up yet) however market looks over bought today

2) Day 1 stock is in negative lets say on Monday

both stocks of short list

both stocks negative for day while market is postive

3) At around 8UK time stock is near low of the day

Yes

4) Open a postion just before market close ( on Monday )

LTD - short @ 20.42 at around close
Stop (using 1.5 x daily ATR) = 21,92
Target is 3 x ATR = 17.42

FRE - short @ 35.05 at around close
Stop (using 1.5 x daily ATR) = 39.55
Target is 3 x ATR = 26.05

5) close postion on Wednesday

close wed if target not met

Glen
 
belflan said:
From Grey1's swing rules/guidelines

1) if MACCI daily is 100 + on Friday

Don't know were the MACCI is today (haven't got TS set up yet) however market looks over bought today

2) Day 1 stock is in negative lets say on Monday

both stocks of short list

both stocks negative for day while market is postive

3) At around 8UK time stock is near low of the day

Yes

4) Open a postion just before market close ( on Monday )

LTD - short @ 20.42 at around close
Stop (using 1.5 x daily ATR) = 21,92
Target is 3 x ATR = 17.42

FRE - short @ 35.05 at around close
Stop (using 1.5 x daily ATR) = 39.55
Target is 3 x ATR = 26.05

5) close postion on Wednesday

close wed if target not met

Glen
Click to expand...


View attachment 31727


shorts loooking ok so far (LTD and FRE)
 
Last edited:
jdbzero said:
Adding to the TSCO discussion from Leovirgo

From Grey1's swing rules/guidelines

1) if MACCI daily is 100 + on Friday

DAILY MACCI was around +90 on Wednesday and turned down into Thursday.
If this is mechanical then we do not select the stock? TSCO is trending down and is
not likely to reach +100 very easily. 13 week resgression is sloping down and TSCO
was weak compared to market direction.

2) Day 1 stock is in negative lets say on Monday

TSCO down on Thursday against market direction

3) At around 8UK time stock is near low of the day ( on Monday again )

Stock at low of day towards Thursday close

4) Open a postion just before market close ( on Monday )

Short 39.60 @ 20:56pm UK time
Stop (using 1.5 x daily ATR) = 41.26
Target is 3 x stop = 34.60

5) close postion on Wednesday
Close position on Tuesday if target not met

Jonathan
Click to expand...


TSCO ticking over ok too

View attachment 31731
 
Last edited:
Sorry I have been away from trading desk for few days but be back on Friday . ( probably Thursday )


grey1
 
jdbzero said:
...
TSCO
Short 39.60 @ 20:56pm UK time
Stop (using 1.5 x daily ATR) = 41.26
Target is 3 x stop = 34.60
Close position on Tuesday if target not met

Jonathan
Click to expand...

Position closed @ 38.82 on close Tuesday following 3rd day rule
Profit + $0.78/share

Choice of potential shorts today, no surprise there, but I'm only taking one selction at a time for now. So ...

Open short ALKS @ 14.62
Stop = 15.46 (1.5*ATR)
Target = 12.29 (4.5ATR) or Thursday

The ATR multiple is just a guess based on Grey1's statement about avoiding opening turbulance by using more than daily ATR as stop. Also do we close these end of day or look at the stocks 10min MACCI for guidance??
 
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leovirgo said:
I thought Mr Buffet has a large holding in TSCO! May I know why you think it is a short candidate?
Click to expand...


I short stocks based on my own valuation model and based on that TSCO is over valued.

Grey1
 
Financial stocks after JAN will hit the floor as a result I feel traders should look into

UMPQ,ABK,MBI,RDN,FNM,WM,CTX as well as Housing stocks .

Any way I am 100% sure you are all more up to date then me as I have been away from the market for few days due to family committments .




Grey1
 
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