BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

Fundamentally Speaking....

King talking down the £ yesterday as the market interpretted his words as meaning could be more QE and rates at current levels for some time to come, and then Geithner talking up the $ (strong $ is desirable, recognises it's importance globally etc...yeh I know, who is he kidding) ...this pairing should be a no-brainer shouldn't it ?? Lol...except both want a 're-balancing' toward savings and exports, but of course it is consumption that grows Gdp with all the benefits that come from that...so there we have it, both statements not at all at odds with each other ! (I'm just glad my trading decsions are technical, Lol)

G/L

 

[glyder]

bbmac,
as always, great analysis, thanks very much.

 

[bbmac]

Fri 13th Nov

Fri 13th-Unlucky !? Hope not, lol

Double bottom at that previous 1hr/4hr swing lo=prev supp=potential supp zone and 2 x pinbars on the run up past the 50% of the posts Boe Inflation report/King's comments fall.

The 1hr chart as I see it is respect of potential supp/res factors is below;

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Th 19th Nov 09

Cable has breeched it's ascending potential support trend line on 4hr/daily as a downtrend re-establishes on the lower 5min t/f, that downtrend being co-existant to the 1hr t/f..Currently demand/support has been found @ the 38.2% fib of the 6260-6876 move after early london session selling past the asian session low around 6685.

This is how I see the 1hr t/f in respect of potential supp/res factors atm, and the red/blue previous obvious near-term swing hi/lo zones are co-existant on 4hr too. Fibs not shown on this 1hr chart are the 5707-6876 and said 6260-6876 moves with only the 76.4% of the 6513-6876 @ 6599 left unbreeched.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

38.2% 6260-6876

hi-probability Reversal set-ups on the lower t/f's at that potential support mentioned above being the 38.2% fib of 6260-6876...enbaling a safe play of the pullback.

The 1min regular sequential bullish divergence based repeating set-up is here:

.....which was supported by an oscillator extremes/cci hook based repeating reversal set-up on the 5min t/f:

G/L

 

[gamma]

Hi bbmac,
Expecting a bit of a pullback here to test the pivot @16688

 

[bbmac]

Hi bbmac,
Expecting a bit of a pullback here to test the pivot @16688

Hi Gamma, I have the daily pivot higher? but 38.2% of the intraday fall is there and mni touting offers in the 6685 area more toward 67000 they say..5min has printed a LH, HL then a H and now a L off that LL at current i/day Low....regular bearish divergence coupled with hidden bearish divergence in the 5min osciallators at that 38.2% of current i/day fall area.

Uk data due at 0930am could affect it....could have ability to dissapoint especially if retail sales are much weaker than expected and govt borrowing is higher than expected, Expectations are for growth in retail sales and around a £7Bn govt borrowing figure

That set-up above at current i/day lows also had a 30min repeating regular bullish divergence based set-up on 30min supporting it ..pic below

G/L

 

[bbmac]

That set-up referrred to above at the 38.2% of the current i/day fall is here:

It was supported by some hidden div in the 5min osc but set-up came @ a H after a HL on that t/f although still @ a LH on the 30min

If data comes in as expected, conventional wisdom suggests some knee-jerk £ strength ? ....but it is data, and anything can happen, lol

G/L

 

[bbmac]

0930am Data

So, September retail sales revised higher, October headline lower than expected and Govt Borrowing higher than expected ?!? sort that one out...Lol...Price currently banging it's head on the react @ the 50% of i/day fall that is at same place as 23.6% of main 6876-current i/day low fall

G/L

 

[globaljobber]

Excellent day today with lots of nice setups so far. Had to post 1m chart here showing the ones I saw this morning between 7:00am and 9:00am.

 

[bbmac]

w/e 20th Nov 09

Another Bearish daily candle close on Friday off the recent 6876 Hi, the Weekly candle too closing as a bearish engulfing of last week's evening star weekly candle. That 6876 recent Hi was the second attempt on the previous weekly t/f swing hi=prev res =potential res zone created by the current 7044 yearly hi...it is shown in the weekly screenshot below as well as the next near-term obvious previous swing lo=prev supp = potential suppoort zone on this t/f, below current price and the ascending potential; support trend line

Price remains in an uptrend on the weekly t/f, whilst on the daily price has sold below the last HL of it's recent uptrend, as well as the ascending potential support trend line on that t/f. The near-term obvious potential support/resistance factors on this t/f are shown on screenshot below and the blue zone (previous swing lo=prev supp=potential supp) is co-existant on the weekly t/f.

Turning to the 4hr t/f and price is in a downtrend swelling below it's 100sma..The near-term obvious potential support/resistance factors on this t/f are shown on screenshot below and the blue and red zones are co-existant on the Daily t/f.

The downtrend extends down to the 30min t/f although on that and the 1hr a HL has been printed in the 1hr previous swing lo=prev supp = potential supp zone created by Friday's Low, although price closed short of the last LH on that 1hr t/f, the pullback hi off Friday's 6459 Low, the last LL of the resepective downtrend, that last LH being @ 6532 and at the top of that previous swing lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone on the 1hr/4hr/daily t/f.

The most obvious swings for fibs of the down move off 6876 recent Hi are the swings down from that 6876 and 6675.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Mon 23rd Nov 09

Cable adopts a bullish tone on an overnight re-test of the previous 1hr swing lo=prev supp=potential supp zone created by the Friday Low @ 6459, and is testing the 61.8% of the 6675-6459 swing as t/f's to 30min go into an uptrend with 1hr printing a H above last LH of it's downtrend now.

The 1hr chart in respect of potential near-term obvious potential supp/res factors is shown below, the red abd blue zones are co-existant with minor previous swings on 4hr;

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Cable's bullish tone so far today continued as price breaks through the 38.2% 6876-6459 following a small pullback from it, now finding supply around the 76.4% of the shorter 6675-6459move...that pullback off the 38.2% fib mentioned above that was co-existant with the top of the prev 1hr/minor 4hr swing lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone created the best Re-entry [ to next higher t/f trend after a pullback] set-up of the day so far. The 5min prev sw hi=prev res=potential rbs is shown below

and the 1min hidden-div based re-entry set-up is here

A nice pip gain ensued before the fresh supply described above.

The initial pullback of that 38.2% fib mentioned above saw a nice 1min trigger reg-div based repeating reversal set-up to short for a few pips gain too..

 

[bbmac]

1hr

This is what I am see-ing now on 1hr in respect of obvious near-term potential supp/res/sbr/rbs factors as price drops from that previously mentioned 76.4% 6675-6459 and finds some demand @ the 23.6% of the friday low-today's current hi, 6459-6629 move, the demand coming at a L on 5min below the last HL of it's uptrend.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Bullish tone continues after extended pullback?

You can see below the 5min Hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to next higher t/f trend after a pullback) set-up that developed following the drop from current i/day Hi to the potential rbs/supp of the 23.6% 6459-6627 move, mni also touting bids toward 6580.

The set-up came @ a L below last HlLof the 5min uptrend but still @ a HL on 30min into whose uptrend the Re-entry set-up indicated a hi-probability 'with trend' trading opportunity....not optimum, but ok therefore in respect of where it developed re overall price action on the 2 x t/f's concerned. There was no lower 1min trigger set-up so had to go in on close of first 5min bullish candle in the set-up. Small +10pip gain booked only.

G/L

 

[smbtnt]

Hidden divergence - daily cable

Hi bbmac,

Would like your opinion on this setup please, abit premature but definite hidden divergence forming on cable.
On the attached daily chart where would you trigger entry and stop if you were trading this setup?

 

[bbmac]

Hi bbmac,

Would like your opinion on this setup please, abit premature but definite hidden divergence forming on cable.
On the attached daily chart where would you trigger entry and stop if you were trading this setup?

Hi, I would comment as under;

1. The daily candle has not closed yet,..this is important if using a candle as the trigger for entry in a set-up, a candle is not a candle until formed and closed.

2. The hidden div on your oscillator comes @ a L on that Daily t/f not an immediate HL in the Daily t/f uptrend, indeed the L comes below the last HL of that uptrend, so not optimum in respect of an uptrend for the hidden div on that t/f...that said the most important thing is that that same hidden divergence and entry candle comes at a HL on the next higher t/f-the weekly into whose uptrend you are considering a re-entry...so looking at the weekly it does come @ a HL position but arguably there is not a strong uptrend now on weekly after the LH and L

3. What is the potential RBS/support on the weekly t/f at which the set-up has develioped? I see nothing obvious?

4. What are the macd signal lines doing on the weekly and monthly t/f's ? ie for a Re-entry (to next higher t/f trend after a pullback) timed on the daily into the next higher t/f trend-in this case the weekly I would want to see the weekly macd at least crossed above it's zero axis (if not pointing up) and the next higher t/f to that-in this case the monthly, the macd signal line at least pointing in direction of the intended trade...indeed both weekly and monthly macd signal olines are ok in this respect.

So, all in all not a perfect confluence of factors particularly re points 2 and 3,...this said if the daily closes as a bullish engulfing or bullish thrust candle it looks more attractive? If I were trading it off the daily candle close at the trigger I would have stop below the last obvious near-term previous swing low under the set-up.

Hope this helps

G/L whatever you decide to do/have done.

 

[bbmac]

Hi bbmac,

Would like your opinion on this setup please, abit premature but definite hidden divergence forming on cable.
On the attached daily chart where would you trigger entry and stop if you were trading this setup?

The difference between your daily hidden div scenario and that similar 5min scenrio decsribed in post #315 above is that on the next higher t/f-the 30min into whose uptrend the 5min hidden-div set-up indicated a possible chance to get back with trend, was that on the 30min it came @ a HL that followed a HH not a H like in the weekly t/f. Both set-ups developed @ a L on the trigger t/f following a HH.

 

[smbtnt]

The fact we broke higher than the previous LH marked on your weekly chart, does that not qualify as a HH?
There is no obvious ppz or support on the weekly tf but this is a dynamic setup and hence nuanced in its nature.
What I actually see is an expanding triangle formation, which is either prelude to a volatile move or an end to a trend.
Too many things against this setup I would agree and the R:R does not support swing trade. However worth keeping an eye on that daily setup for further development.

Thanks for your comments and time on this.

 

[bbmac]

....The fact we broke higher than the previous LH marked on your weekly chart, does that not qualify as a HH?...

It is significant I agree but in terms of overall price action-peak/valley analysis still does not constitute a strong uptrend, ie a L followed by a H does not constitute an uptrend , more an upmove that may develop into an uptrend. A HH comes after a H of HH not just beacuse it broke a previous HL in a different price action phase. I agree with you and for the same reasons that it didn't really represent a high-probability trading opportunity.