Active day and swing traders

[marben]

Phew! Finally got a good opportunity to close my last "old" trade - the RSA short. The new downtrend I had been hoping for clearly didn't develop, so got out today @ 94.75 for a small loss against my original opening @ 93 on 8/9.

Jon, I'm trading at 1/4 size at the moment and my rules are somewhat experimental, so I might deviate more than usual over the next few weeks. I'm in the middle of studying a book recommended by Techst (Technical Analysis by Gerald Appel). This seems to have some very interesting stuff in it, so I'm incorporating various things into my methods & backtesting them - but might put some sensible looking things into practie as I trade before backtesting. Living dangerously :cheesy: but at this trade size I can afford to try things out.

I shan't increase my trade size until I've solidified my rules & got a better picture of what works best.

I'm watching an interesting intra-day fight between bulls & bears in CBRY. Looks like the bears are winning at the moment.. no wait.. the bulls are coming back :cheesy:. Suspect the price will break sharply one way or the other once this battle is won. Will have a go at a quick day trade on this using 2 EMAs of 15 minute price to measure strength if it does break strongly. Will stay in that trade if day finishes on a high or a low in my facvour.

Good trading!

Mark

 

[marben]

I reckon the bulls won. Long CBRY @ 573 with a tight stop. I'll exit this before COB unless the day finishes at a high.

 

[marben]

I reckon the bulls won. Long CBRY @ 573 with a tight stop. I'll exit this before COB unless the day finishes at a high.

Nope! So closed @ 572.5 - no harm done.... except that if I'd stuck with it a few minutes longer....

 

[techst]

Marben - the MACD section is worth the value of the book on it's own!

Have you seen CPI? That babies heading south! Join the ride

 

[marben]

Marben - the MACD section is worth the value of the book on it's own!

Have you seen CPI? That babies heading south! Join the ride

Thanks Techst. Haven't got that far with the book yet but loooking forward to it. I like Gerry Appel's no-nonsense style. I'm hoping it'll explain where I was going wrong before. I like to take it slowly and methodically.

Looks like you could be right on CPI ... but we were both right standing away until now. Slope of MACD histogram (yes, I know, you don't like it!) has reversed, so that's a point in your favour. Funnily enough it looks like it could well indicate short within the next week or two using my new indicators too.

Did you trigger short on it today (I believe it's now below the trigger level that you mentioned earlier)?

Regards,

Mark

 

[Splitlink]

CPI. Congrats, techst. I recommended caution on the 14th and it went up 10 points the next day. Now it's a different ballgame, as you guys say! My view this morning-(worm's eye, by the look of it) is that it has to stay below 263. A stop at 265?

I have to log my posts on paper or I can't find what I did say. 8 whole pages since that post- this thread is well used!

Split

 

[Euro_d]

Morning all,
CPI, I have confusing sigs on that one! it has popped outside the lower Bol band and MACD is turning South. it has also bounced from its medium term trend channel and sits right in the middle. You could be right but personally the signals are not strong enough.

So, I have one for you, what do you tink of IOT long? it has popped outside the lower medium term channel and touching the lower Boll, we don't have a MACD cross but it is turning. I reckon if we see another day + then it will be worth a punt.
Given market direction I favour shorts today, perhaps AAL?

As I said yesterday until we have passed the Rita effect I might just sit on my hands, lets see.

Good trading to all,
Dave

 

[marben]

'morning all,

Back in to CBRY long @ 578.5 early this morning. Looking for a big bounce back but tightish stop set (by my standards) in case it breaks down. Elder Force Index a bit worrying as it passed a multiweek low but other indicators positive. Short-term uptrend resumed around 10am yesterday. Expecting this to feed through into resumption of longer term major uptrend.

IPR long coming along nicely.

Monitoring BOC & SPW for possible longs but unlikely to trigger today.

Monday will be a very important day, once Rita has gone through & we see the market reaction. Unless the FTSE surpasses it's recent high within a few days, I'd be worried about a major trend change and might encash some of my investments.

Good trading all,

Mark

 

[Euro_d]

Hi Mark, I think CBRY is a good idea, not just technical but with Pepsi on the sidelines it could rocket short term, good luck.
I am still out as everything I look at has conflicting signals. Only one possible is IOT but am waiting for direction which as yet is elusive!

Will probably not be doing anything today due to the Rita effect.
I think that Monday will be a "sigh of relief" day provided the destruction is not as bad as feared.
However, following that we are in a traditional bearish period. I dont see autumn 2004 levels of 4300 being reached but we could conceivably drop to the May low of 4800.

I see a difficult couple of months.

Have a good weekend

Dave

 

[marben]

...
I think that Monday will be a "sigh of relief" day provided the destruction is not as bad as feared.
However, following that we are in a traditional bearish period...
Dave

Hi Dave,

Bear in mind (pun intended) that this has been a funny old year: "sell in May & go away" wasn't exactly the best strategy!

Enjoy your golf!

Best regards,

Mark

 

[marben]

...and closed CBRY trade again @ 573: 5min price enterered a range and then broke out on the downside. Will re-enter iff clear evidence of 5min uptrend resuming. OTOH if it breaks below yesterday's low, then I'll have to recheck EOD data & consider whether longer trem uptrend is likely to resume.

Mark

 

[Splitlink]

LLOY is getting close to a support level. Close stop B/O at 462.5

Split

 

[Euro_d]

Yep Split, I can see that one brewing. Trend channel is around where we are now but the low of late Aug was around 450 or a tad above.
I reckon another day or so will reveal all.

If it breaks down to 455 or consolidates at the current lows then I am with you.

Dave

 

[marben]

Well, back to the old CBRY game... back in long at 573.5. Looks like last excursion was a false downside breakout (back in 5min range now). If so, could be a strong surge back above earlier range to 581+. Level2 shows evidence of big buyer(s) hoovering up sells. Volume is low so far today, which is a rather negative signal UNLESS it does surge as the day progresses.

SPW long has also triggered but a pullback seems to have started so I'm waiting for that to complete before entering.

Good trading,

Mark

 

[Splitlink]

Yep Split, I can see that one brewing. Trend channel is around where we are now but the low of late Aug was around 450 or a tad above.
I reckon another day or so will reveal all.

If it breaks down to 455 or consolidates at the current lows then I am with you.

Dave

Hope it goes up before then or I shall be stopped out and will have to try again!

I'm in Barcelona, by the way.

Split

 

[marben]

Now long SPW @ 565.5 as pullback seems to have halted (not a day trade, unless price plummets ).

Evidence of overall uptrend from March this year, supported by bid situation (though bid is surrounded by regulatory risks). Daily stochastic showing "oversold", Elder FI mildly -ve, so triggered when price exceeded yesterday's high.

Current position: long IPR, CBRY, SPW. Watching BOC.

With all those longs in place I'm hoping Rita doesn't cause havoc over the weekend (current forecasts show reducing probability, fortunately for all) and there is a relief rally on Monday, as Dave suggests.

Cheers,

Mark

 

[marben]

GSK hovering around upside of resistance level. It'll be interesting to see the EOD data tonight.

 

[Splitlink]

The reason that I bought LLOY this morning was because I could see this triangle and, as I could put a logical stop fairly close, I thought it worth a try for a break on the upside.

Any forecasts? While I'm still in the triangle !!!

Split

 

[Euro_d]

It is Friday after the European markets have closed and it is piddling with rain so no golf and I have a tournament tomorrow!
So what better way to make me happy than look at my successes of the month so far, something I normally do at the end of each month.

My regular colleagues wil remember that I posted a note almost a month ago stating that I need to have a very close look at my exit strategy as I felt I was closing too early.

Feeling reasonably smug with 116 points in the bag (closed trades) I decided to look at how these performed after I closed them.

I hope the following sorry tale will:
A) serve as a public flogging for me
B) an enlightenment for my colleagues here

To date I have entered and closed 20 trades this month, including carry overs from the previous month, 3 off.
Of those 20 trades (remember I made a nice 116 points) 11 continued to rise after I closed them.
Upon analysing I found that NONE dropped below the entry and non rose and then dropped to hit my 3% stop.

Therefore my colleagues I have a net result that I have gained 116 points (certainly a living) but missed a further 400, yes 400 F *)£"$^*£""*%^ points.

So I must admit that I need to go and study where to exit. Further I must learn to stick to my own rules, set a trailing 3% stop.

If anyone of you good people have any good ideas then I will willingly listen.
It seems that I am good at finding the trades but fail miserably at maximising my profits.

I will now go away blushing!

Have a good weekend
Dave

 

[Anonymous]

but missed a further ___, yes ____ *)£"$^*£""*%^ points.

You are not the only one.