About To Give Up

[DionysusToast]

Losing money for 2 years is a bit daft unless you are trading for pennies on Oanda.Which is much better than SIM trading. Losing serious money consistently for 2 years is madness. There is no need to do that at all. I would say that anyone that jumped in and lost a significant (to them) amount of money in 2 years is not cut out to trade at all.

In terms of how long it takes to wade through the BS and learn how to trade? Five years perhaps? On the other hand, if you didn't have to wade through the BS, and you had some decent schooling, someone to tell you what was what - I reckon 6-12 months.

The trouble is - there is a lot to learn and it helps to have a teacher but most teachers are bunk. So, you end up reading books, paying for signals, watching people SIM trade hoping to one day connect to a real trader who will at least show you what a trade looks like. Of course, none of this helps in terms of what trading really is.

Now - lets say you found a genuine mentor that could turn the lights on for you. The next step is to promise yourself not to look at anything else, to actually commit to that one path and to put the responsibility on your own shoulders.You have to promise yourself not to look at other techniques or read the latest post from an on line guru when it doesn't go right straight away. You have to tell yourself that you need to go from that genuine tuition point to the point where you apply it yourself.

It's harsh but true that the OP hasn't actually taken step one yet. He's had 2 advisors and backtested a 'system'. I remember those days. He doesn't understand how the markets work. More than likely he's looking at the charts as an entity in their own right as opposed to a representation of a bunch of people winning/losing money. The charts are not the market, the people are the market. If you think too much in chart terms and not enough in people terms (warts & all) - you'll never really get it.

So - I don't think that it can be quantified in time. There will be the time it takes for you to realise what the markets really are (which for me meant someone explaining it many times) and there will be the time it takes for you to apply that information and there will be the time where you deviate because you second guess yourself/your knowledge/your mentor.

 

[the hare]

My mates masters tutor (who frequently invited in his millionaire hedge fund trader buddies for talks - so you know he's the business) reckons he's got a model that does it. He's a consultant on teh side too.

It probably comes as no surprise that I'm with Nicholas Taleb 100% on this one.

I trade with a mechanical trading system. The thing is though, it'll only make money, until such point that its stops working, and I dont have a clue when that might happen. Thats just the nature of trading systems. I've had stuff in the past that worked for 7 or 8 years, and then failed, and I have no illusions that the same thing might happen to my current models. You just have to know when they've stopped working, and **** em off.

Some people are just fortunate enough to have systems and methods that are in phase with current market conditions. Everything else is just bollox.

 

[Pipsaholic]

I appreciate everyones advice on here its helped. All friends and family are mega against trading for some reason label it as gambling once you tell them you can make x amount per day as it trumphs their day job any day. They really do **** me off first question they ask you how much money have you made and if its not in the thousands they label it as a waste of time get a jab like the rest of the rats.

Anyway moving forward I am staying learned too much to throw it all down the toilet pan. Yes, I used to look at all these phsyco systems but going naked is best and signal services are a waste of time I agree.

Some good news for a while I made 28 points today on the Eur>USD going short thank god, but with the way things are going the market will ask for it back I bet you tomorrow.

 

[pboyles]

But at least the rats are getting paid. How long can you go on not making any money?

 

[VielGeld]

Hmm... Let me play Devil's Advocate for a moment. Everyone has to know what their limit is. Everyone has to have a point at which they say "this isn't for me, and I have to cut my losses." Only you can know this. The fact you are making this thread is that it's a last ditch effort to find enlightenment or you're out of the game. Be very attuned to this or you will only keep losing.

DT suggested making your own Journal. This is exactly what I've done last month, and I'm light years ahead already by being the luckiest guy on earth to have run into Robster who is willing to impart nuggets of wisdom. You might want to do the same.

Another thing. The only way to learn to be profitable in the market is to:

1) Watch it.

2) Know yourself.

If you believe system trading is for you, stick to one method until it is proven not to work. Then move on to the next, and then the next. One by one, you must work at it until you find something or give up on it.

My own "limit" is not monetary. It is when it is proven that I have no ability at the game. What is yours?

 

[Jerry Westerby]

its like snakes and ladders, innit. you can only know the way to the finish square after you've seen all the bits of the path you missed on your way back down.

 

[Nigel-P]

If you were looking for a good time of the year to take a break and reflect on your trading it's now. As the FT reported yesterday, even for December volume is right through the floor, and anyone watching the news knows that the event risk out of Europe is sky high. Might be worth waiting till January, just a suggestion. Good luck!

 

[the hare]

its like snakes and ladders, innit.

Yes, and some of the snakes are longer than the others (and some are shorter)

 

[Masquerade]

If you used a 500pt stop. Do you think you'd be better or worse off than you are now?

 

[scose-no-doubt]

I'm light years ahead already by being the luckiest guy on earth to have run into Robster who is willing to impart nuggets of wisdom.

He's full of sh*t that one and a bit a bit of a mental case. I'd steer clear.

 

[dc2000]

Hi,

Wondering if anyone can give me hope at trading as this looks like the end for me. Been trading for 10 months now 6 months demo and 4 months live with more losses than winners which where just luck imo.

I have taken the experts advice and devised my own system with no success. I have backtested it 2 years and it works, but hasn't forward testing on live real money. I either get in too early or late or get stopped out early. I use 2 times the ATR.

My only option is to dig through the web to find a proven system or some signal service for how long it lasts to be successful imo or else look for a new career which I am thinking trading may not be for me.

when you examined the trades that went wrong were they in line with the system rules ? if not was it down to yourself moving the goalposts.
do you think you could follow signals blindly?
2 times ATR is one hell of a target one half ATR would be more achievable on a regular trade basis

 

[dc2000]

I appreciate everyones advice on here its helped. All friends and family are mega against trading for some reason label it as gambling once you tell them you can make x amount per day as it trumphs their day job any day. They really do **** me off first question they ask you how much money have you made and if its not in the thousands they label it as a waste of time get a jab like the rest of the rats.

Anyway moving forward I am staying learned too much to throw it all down the toilet pan. Yes, I used to look at all these phsyco systems but going naked is best and signal services are a waste of time I agree.

Some good news for a while I made 28 points today on the Eur>USD going short thank god, but with the way things are going the market will ask for it back I bet you tomorrow.

2 numbers for cable tomorrow 15585.3 and 15655
and families been there "why dont you have a proper job like Henry" I do love christmas these days though santa comes in a lime green lamborghini gallardo cos he can

 

[DionysusToast]

It probably comes as no surprise that I'm with Nicholas Taleb 100% on this one.

I trade with a mechanical trading system. The thing is though, it'll only make money, until such point that its stops working, and I dont have a clue when that might happen. Thats just the nature of trading systems. I've had stuff in the past that worked for 7 or 8 years, and then failed, and I have no illusions that the same thing might happen to my current models. You just have to know when they've stopped working, and **** em off.

Some people are just fortunate enough to have systems and methods that are in phase with current market conditions. Everything else is just bollox.

A while back you were claiming to enter the market randomly and then manage the trade after entry.

What happened to that technique?

 

[the hare]

A while back you were claiming to enter the market randomly and then manage the trade after entry.

What happened to that technique?

That is exactly what I still do, and it still works, and it will continue to work as long as fat tails are around.

Although I enter randomly, I do have a directional bias. There are 2 main factors that effect the distribution in returns. 1) random chance, and 2) the effectiveness of the directional bias. I trade groups of diversified systems, and its not uncommon to see a fairly wide differences in the performance from each of these individual systems. A system thats performing well might return 150% per annum, a system thats performing poorly might lose 50% per annum.

The key point is I have no idea which individual systems are going to work, or which will fail, or when they'll stop working, or when the results from systems may completely polorize. Nor do I care really.

I used to be a discretionary trader, and I used all of the usual bollox. Then I asked myself the key question, "what if my results are due to luck", what if I'm a statistical outlier. I really didnt like the answer to that question, and thats the day I started tossing coins for a living.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

How the hell do you even go about developing something like that? You must at least have a timing trigger or something. Complete randomness? Really? Are you all in one market? What about correlation or risk exposure? I don;t like the sound of this at all.

 

[Masquerade]

Although I enter randomly, I do have a directional bias. ........I used to be a discretionary trader, and I used all of the usual bollox. Then I asked myself the key question, "what if my results are due to luck", what if I'm a statistical outlier. I really didnt like the answer to that question, and thats the day I started tossing coins for a living.

I realise this is going off topic, but how do you determine your directional bias? You then go on to say you used to be discretionary but now have "started tossing coins for a living" and I just wondered how trading with a directional bias correlates with tossing coins.

 

[the hare]

How the hell do you even go about developing something like that? You must at least have a timing trigger or something. Complete randomness? Really?

Absolutely not. When the system is turned on it randomly decides how long to wait before taking a trade. It might wait 5 minutes, or 5 hours, or it might not trade at all that day. Once a trade is closed, it randomly decides how long its going to wait before taking the next trade

Entries are completely random.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Absolutely not. When the system is turned on it randomly decides how long to wait before taking a trade. It might wait 5 minutes, or 5 hours, or it might not trade at all that day. Once a trade is closed, it randomly decides how long its going to wait before taking the next trade

Entries are completely random.

So it randomly decides when to start goosing for your trade parameters? That's a bit different.

 

[the hare]

I realise this is going off topic, but how do you determine your directional bias? You then go on to say you used to be discretionary but now have "started tossing coins for a living" and I just wondered how trading with a directional bias correlates with tossing coins.

The short answer is I use baysian classifiers, although I suspect I could equally well use a moving average. The basic logic is that I'm trying to take multiple bites out of a longer term trend, rather than catching turning points. Identifying if somethings been going up, or down isnt rocket science I get screwed at the turning points, and win rates drop but I get multiple bites of the cherry during the bit in the middle, which pushes the win rate up.

Without the bias and over a big enough sample, I'd get 50/50, the bias just pushes things a bit more in my favour.

The key point is that I'm not using fixed targets. Losses are kept reasonably small, and the size of my average winner gets bumped up due to the fat tails.

I wouldnt want to trade like this without diversification, cos you never know what you'll get. If you traded just the one instance, I might get lucky and get a 100% return, or I might might be unlucky, and lose 50%.

Thats the basic building blocks of the method. Noone at T2W would touch it with a bargepole. The win rate isnt high enough, you get lots of losing days, losing weeks, and at times even multi month drawdowns. The annual returns are a pittance in comparison to what people are looking for.

However out in the real world, it allows me to manage significant capital, achieve triple digit returns on a good year and keep drawdowns typically under 12%. Thankfully, thats all I need to do.

If I analyse results, its clear that at times I can call the directional bias right, but still lose money, and alternatively I can call it wrong and just get lucky. Luck is still the overriding factor even though there's a fair amount of technology and stats being applied.

 

[Masquerade]

So with regard to your system; it makes money in good long term trends taking multiple bites as you say, but what happens when a trend changes? Are you able to get out and prevent giving back all the profits and how does it differentiate between a correction and reversal?

How does your system know when to close a profitable trade? What % of your system success is luck would you estimate? If your system is capable of managing large sums of money and generating strong returns with little drawdown, why not flog it to Goldman Sachs or some hedge fund and make millions?