I give up....... on technical trading

[wskanaan]

I have only been trading for about two months... and have been swinging up and down between gains and losses.... mainly because I was trying to find a good strategy using indicators... but it just doesn't work... even the ones that are sold on the market seem to have a 50/50 chance of making money....

I have lately moved to fundamental analysis.... basically... oil goes up... I sell dollars, oil goes down... i buy dollars... and it has worked very well for me... till now...

The only thing I can say has been reliable is the use of pivot points, support and resistances for placing buy/sell orders....

Can anyone tell me of a strategy using technical analysis that works???

 

[nine]

Find the up/dn trend. Buy/Sell pullbacks.

No indicators except maybe an ma to evaluate pullbacks and maybe volume if it helps you evaluate the pullbacks or trend exhaustion.

For specifics someone can recommend a couple of threads on the site.

Two months is hardly started I'm afraid. Often people aren't consistently profitable after 2 years.

 

[wskanaan]

Often people aren't consistently profitable after 2 years.

Two years??? If I am not making profits within six months... then I should not be trading. I think it is just about finding the right way to do things... and technical analysis is not it for me. I have tried back testing many strategies and they do not give consistent results... all depends on the market conditions... and technical indicators only give you an indication of what was... not what will be...

Anyway... Oil dropped yesterday... and it seems to be dropping at this time... so I am buying usd... let's see if it works today...

 

[A Dashing Blade]

Two years??? If I am not making profits within six months... then I should not be trading...

So that's 12 Feb 2009 pencilled in then . . .
Bless!

 

[wskanaan]

So that's 12 Feb 2009 pencilled in then . . .
Bless!

:cheesy:

Actually... it is more like four months... since two have already passed

 

[0007]

Two years??? If I am not making profits within six months... then I should not be trading. I think it is just about finding the right way to do things... and technical analysis is not it for me. I have tried back testing many strategies and they do not give consistent results... all depends on the market conditions... and technical indicators only give you an indication of what was... not what will be...

Anyway... Oil dropped yesterday... and it seems to be dropping at this time... so I am buying usd... let's see if it works today...

Until you actually understand what is happening with TA, and the limitations of indicators you will not succeed. Good advice from Nine and there is plenty more on T2W including strategies that work (Trader_Dante / 3 Ducks, to name just two). Lots of people make TA work so I suggest it is you that has not yet developed full understanding.

If you completely crack it within 2 years count yourself lucky. If you don't have the determination to go beyond 6 months I recommend you give up now because it will save you loads of money and pain. Good luck.

 

[graemenash]

Two years??? If I am not making profits within six months... then I should not be trading.

Sorry but that's just wrong. Unless you're very lucky, 2-3 years at least is about the level of study needed to be consistently successful in this game.

If you could breeze in and do it after 6 months, everyone would be doing it...

 

[wskanaan]

I am actually surprised to hear this...

However.. I think I should be able to learn it much faster.... there is a lot of material to learn from and once you actually trade real money you have to learn things way faster...

Anyway... things are looking up... even if today was not a good money making day for me till now...

 

[si1503]

Disagree with many of the above comments about everyone needing 2 years at trading until they can be profitable. Turtles anyone?

If you are disciplined from the start you will progress much faster, the problem is 90% of new traders are not. All you need to do is find your edge, for some traders this will come far quicker than others.

 

[wskanaan]

Disagree with many of the above comments about everyone needing 2 years at trading until they can be profitable. Turtles anyone?

If you are disciplined from the start you will progress much faster, the problem is 90% of new traders are not. All you need to do is find your edge, for some traders this will come far quicker than others.

Good to hear... I think 2 years is unrealistic... but.... it is comforting to hear since I have an excuse for not succeeding in my own target time frame... although I think I should be turning things around this month...

 

[wasp]

'ignorance is bliss' springs to mind...

Ah well, more cannon fodder!

 

[graemenash]

Disagree with many of the above comments about everyone needing 2 years at trading until they can be profitable. Turtles anyone?

If you are disciplined from the start you will progress much faster, the problem is 90% of new traders are not. All you need to do is find your edge, for some traders this will come far quicker than others.

To clarify I think 2-3 years is the timescale if you're learning through independent study; obviously if you have a mentor and/or are taught a specific method then yes, things should happen more quickly although IMHO it still takes years before you can develop a real inside-out knowledge of the markets; it's an old saying but the best traders never stop learning.

 

[si1503]

To clarify I think 2-3 years is the timescale if you're learning through independent study; obviously if you have a mentor and/or are taught a specific method then yes, things should happen more quickly although IMHO it still takes years before you can develop a real inside-out knowledge of the markets; it's an old saying but the best traders never stop learning.

Thanks for clarifying, I broadly concur. I certainly don't disagree with that last part. I was not trying to imply anyone can pick up trading overnight but I do believe it can occur sooner for some individuals than others.

 

[rols]

Can anyone tell me of a strategy using technical analysis that works???

Yes of course

EMA 365

Weekly Chart

If price is > than EMA BUY
If price is < EMA SELL


PS I've got some Free Luncheon Vouchers to go with that ....

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Disagree with many of the above comments about everyone needing 2 years at trading until they can be profitable. Turtles anyone?

If you are disciplined from the start you will progress much faster, the problem is 90% of new traders are not. All you need to do is find your edge, for some traders this will come far quicker than others.

I agree with you here, it is very easy to just get started and make money within a few months of trading. Some start making money straight away.

The problem comes with holding onto the cash in the long run. This is the part that takes years to master. Newbies come along and get all gobby 'cos they made a bucket load of wonger', and disagree with traders of long standing, they soon disappear, some come back under different names years later and have another go.

I assume you've been trading several years yourself and know fully what I'm talking about.

Same message goes to wskanaan.

 

[shadowninja]

Everyone comes to the market thinking they have what it takes and are better than the rest so will only need a week to settle into trading. Been there, done that. Actually, I thought I had it sussed after an hour. I'm that good.

 

[0007]

Everyone comes to the market thinking they have what it takes and are better than the rest so will only need a week to settle into trading. Been there, done that. Actually, I thought I had it sussed after an hour. I'm that good.

 

[wskanaan]

Everyone comes to the market thinking they have what it takes and are better than the rest so will only need a week to settle into trading. Been there, done that. Actually, I thought I had it sussed after an hour. I'm that good.

Interesting turn of topic.... I started this thread to get people's input on technical analysis and got something else...

anyway... thanks rols for the strategy...

I have to say... I feel like I walked into a trap but to assure you people.. I came into trading with a very good background in business, programming and math.... I have been doing strategy testing on every promising strategy I could find... none gave a consistent good result... but all were aimed for the short term trading... which is what I do. In addition... even if I lose all my money - which was not much to begin with - I put it with the possibility of losing it all in mind... just for learning purposes... but I was lucky not to lose it all till now and I do feel I can recover it all before six months (hopefully this month)... based on recent performance...

 

[wasp]

Interesting turn of topic.... I started this thread to get people's input on technical analysis and got something else...

anyway... thanks rols for the strategy...

I have to say... I feel like I walked into a trap but to assure you people.. I came into trading with a very good background in business, programming and math.... I have been doing strategy testing on every promising strategy I could find... none gave a consistent good result... but all were aimed for the short term trading... which is what I do. In addition... even if I lose all my money - which was not much to begin with - I put it with the possibility of losing it all in mind... just for learning purposes... but I was lucky not to lose it all till now and I do feel I can recover it all before six months (hopefully this month)... based on recent performance...

Ironically, I would say the best way you could achieve a decent 'strat', is to spend 2 years watching a price only chart till your eyes bleed and you know the players better than yourself. Only then start trading.

Why the **** do people think they can just walk into trading and become proficient in six months is beyond me. This is a difficult business and spawns the richest in the world. Next to brain surgery or air traffic control, I can't think of a more testing business and you wouldn't expect to pick them up in 6 months.

If you can do it in 6 months though, all the best....

Oh, and search for 'rols' and 'rich tea', theres another 'strat' for you.

 

[0007]

Why the **** do people think they can just walk into trading and become proficient in six months is beyond me. This is a difficult business and spawns the richest in the world.

Next to brain surgery or air traffic control, I can't think of a more testing business and you wouldn't expect to pick them up in 6 months.

Try military combat flying - it's very similar to trading! (and no one cracks it in 2 years)