2nd of September was the day!

Technically Fundamental said:
Are you still talkin up gold? Jesus know when you're beat. Holding on to one mistake can end you. Trust me I know.
Click to expand...

It's Silver Today due to relative strength, if you had watched the clip, you would know.

All my Bullion trades have done extremely well for me thank you.

As for the fatherly advice, about holding on to a mistake, thanks very much.

Here is the 'beating' on Gold alone in the run up from $962 to resistance at $1005/6 and subsequent consolidation, over just over a week.

No doubt you also made £33k in a week, only it was shorting Gold and are about to show us too - Y/N?

Real traders or people who want to learn for this thread only please, the rest should jump on a football thread some where and go Yah! and Booo! to opinions contrary to your own.

I need to leave now, Silver is knocking on $17, look forward to you posting your calls real soon.
 

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  • Gold up to $1007 10 Sept.xlsx
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Good call so far, Silver looks like it might be a bit more attractive than Gold and offer more bang for the buck.

Still looking for a break of the previous recent highs though.

Are you trading the futures only or do you get involved in stocks and ETFs too?
 
Late Final on Silver

This Clip was my overnight 2159 GMT clip on Silver.

YouTube - Silver 2159

Since then Silver has hit its 17.15 target and Gold has reasserted again to new high of move around $1017.

There is still time for those to place a small position trade over differing time frames I expect Gold to Attain $1032, $1,250, $2,000 and beyond. :clap:
 
We are at the level described in post 53.
The smart money now has to decide if inflation is a realistic threat.

For me inflation is a non issue for the foreseeable future so probably a good place for gold to make a sideways range and then collapse back towards the initial break and quite possibly beyond.
 
The Baptist said:
This Clip was my overnight 2159 GMT clip on Silver.

YouTube - Silver 2159

Since then Silver has hit its 17.15 target and Gold has reasserted again to new high of move around $1017.

There is still time for those to place a small position trade over differing time frames I expect Gold to Attain $1032, $1,250, $2,000 and beyond. :clap:
Click to expand...

at least 3000 $ :cheesy:

given that USD would be used as toilet paper (cheap one at that)
 
counter_violent said:
We are at the level described in post 53.
The smart money now has to decide if inflation is a realistic threat.

For me inflation is a non issue for the foreseeable future so probably a good place for gold to make a sideways range and then collapse back towards the initial break and quite possibly beyond.
Click to expand...

If it does, good place for another buy, I would have thought :)
 
montmorencyt2w said:
If it does, good place for another buy, I would have thought :)
Click to expand...

If it does what ? Price goes back to initial break area ? Would this not negate the original breakout ?

This may sound like stating the bleeding obvious....the level I described mid teens 1,015area is where big decisions will be made...it is not at all obvious which way this will break...if you believe in rampant world inflation then go long gold...if not then short the crap out of it.

Just as The Baptist stated that sept 2nd was a defining day for gold...I am saying that this price area is another defining level for what comes next...there are only two options and either one will be explosive I expect.

The decider will be a Price and Time Event.
 
It makes me feel fuzzy when more exp people share my opinion. If the institutions hold on through a new high when the news brings in the stupid money.
Dollar index and $/yen approaching major levels... could be time to cut and run for the time being. That where my money (what little there is lol) is going.
 
counter_violent said:
If it does what ? Price goes back to initial break area ? Would this not negate the original breakout ?

This may sound like stating the bleeding obvious....the level I described mid teens 1,015area is where big decisions will be made...it is not at all obvious which way this will break...if you believe in rampant world inflation then go long gold...if not then short the crap out of it.
Click to expand...
Not necessarily because (IMHO) it will surely be back soon.

I was more thinking if it collapsed even further.

IMHO it's definitely coming back up again, but before then, an opportunity for those who didn't go long first time around, or those who want another go. I'm speaking "fundamentally" rather than "technically", and am not as sanguine about inflation as you are, for one thing.

Just as The Baptist stated that sept 2nd was a defining day for gold...I am saying that this price area is another defining level for what comes next...there are only two options and either one will be explosive I expect.
Click to expand...
I haven't thought about it in those terms exactly and I bow to Baptist and you on that one. I just am sure that if it goes down, it isn't staying down for long. I agree it might be explosive or it might just go back to the previous consolidation area and gather strength for another surge, as it were.

My "buy" comment was tongue in cheek but only partly so.
 
It's good always too be opposed in your view, if for no other purpose but to keep ones mind open.

So thanks for that! Having stated such I have not changed my assessmen in the slightest, given the pace of the move, there will be regular periods where Gold will come off for a period.

I suspect however that the next 6 monthly candles will be green. And 75% of the weekly ones too.

My monthly , weekly and daily set ups were all present when $962 fell.
This pattern is a continuation pattern across all 3 time frames. It also delivers target projections, many of which have been met on the shorter time frame.

Technically I remain a strong bull and consider any withdrawal back below $ 1000 as unlikely and a great opportunity.

Fundamentally as an aside it is worth pointing out that for decades gold production has been well below supply. The shortfall was met for years by central banks selling their bullion, as the credit miracle, initiated by nixons removal of the gold standard in 1971.

This selling has stopped due to depleted stockpiles. GB having picked the low for gold to dump the bulk of britains bullion.

As my earlier post on 'where have all the mines gone' due to this massive overhang threat of central banks, mines where run by accountants and turned into low growth tight cost gran ie funds offering big dividends. Exploration was not a priority.

The biggest supply south Africa has been dwindling in production for decades. CAR, Congo are the richer pickings in a highly unstable environment.

Finally the loss of faith in fiat currencies unbacked, chronic US debt and related dollar threat, further
makes for the enriching eastern giants lean to investment here, where there is already a high cultural affinity in ownership. These are all the makings of a perfect storm for the unwinding of the long standind dollar ponzi scheme and an epic run for gold.

Happy trading.
 
The Baptist said:
My monthly , weekly and daily set ups were all present when $962 fell.
This pattern is a continuation pattern across all 3 time frames. It also delivers target projections, many of which have been met on the shorter time frame.

Technically I remain a strong bull and consider any withdrawal back below $ 1000 as unlikely and a great opportunity.
Click to expand...

I don't see a continuation on the weekly. The weekly setup is a huge double top formation, which looks pretty similar to copper from 2004-2008, before the 64% drop. You keep mentioning inflation but money supply and credit has fallen at the fastest rate since the onset of the great depression.

The world is deflating, and when in a deflationary cycle, dollars are needed to pay off debts. Holding some gold is fine, but why would China bet the house at 1000-2000 when they could buy more at 800 or 500?

You will maybe see the highs around 1030, maybe then hysteria will push it higher like it did with oil last year, but this will only happen if the double dip hasn't started.

If you look more closely at the prechter link which was posted on the first page of this post, you will see that excess liquidity means that all markets are the same market. It's a casino. Dollar down equals eur, gbp, aud, gold, commodities, oil up in linear fashion. Flight-to-risk/flight-to-quality.

The problem with that, as happened last year, when the 'nailed-on' China decouple play turned out to be nonsense, is you get an almighty crash across the board.

Also, IMO, Barrick Gold removing its hedges is not a bullish sign for me. It's a sign that they are going all-in HBOS style.
 
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Deflation? Trillions of Government debt taken on? Try Devaluation of currency

SAINT said:
I don't see a continuation on the weekly. The weekly setup is a huge double top formation, which looks pretty similar to copper from 2004-2008, before the 64% drop. You keep mentioning inflation but money supply and credit has fallen at the fastest rate since the onset of the great depression.

The world is deflating, and when in a deflationary cycle, dollars are needed to pay off debts. Holding some gold is fine, but why would China bet the house at 1000-2000 when they could buy more at 800 or 500?

You will maybe see the highs around 1030, maybe then hysteria will push it higher like it did with oil last year, but this will only happen if the double dip hasn't started.

If you look more closely at the prechter link which was posted on the first page of this post, you will see that excess liquidity means that all markets are the same market. It's a casino. Dollar down equals eur, gbp, aud, gold, commodities, oil up in linear fashion. Flight-to-risk/flight-to-quality.

The problem with that, as happened last year, when the 'nailed-on' China decouple play turned out to be nonsense, is you get an almighty crash across the board.

Also, IMO, Barrick Gold removing its hedges is not a bullish sign for me. It's a sign that they are going all-in HBOS style.
Click to expand...

The best part of your post was this - Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value ---- zero. Voltaire ( 1694-1778 )

When confidence goes this is a truth.

When in a deflationary cycle the share market is not screaming upwards, along with Oil, Gold and silver and even softs.

You are reading yesterdays news by talking about Deflation.

Personal and Commercial credit maybe harder to get now, which is what you and I and business people feel, but this is more than way over compensated by Mammoth Government debt issuance. UK's credit interest bill will shortly have grown to £16 Billion a month, twice the cost of hosting the ever escalated cost of the Olympics every month!

The fact you and I can't extend a £10K overdraft is neglibile in this environment, The government is soaking up far more borrowing than households and business ever had.

When this amount of unbacked paper money is pumped into a system, only one thing happens - devaulation of purchasing power of that now abundant paper. The corollary of this devaluation is increased amounts of that paper for hard tangible items ie Inflation.

Wealth is not created by releasing Trillions of $/£'s just re-evaluation of its worth on supply and demand basis, double the supply soon enough half the value, pay twice as much for staples.

Its the safest way to devalue your epic owings for an economy, and it was what Nixon did, with the costly Vietnam war he refused to back out of earlier (apart from removing the Gold Standard in 1971 to allow for printing press economics), double digit inflation ruled the 70's with both Oil and Gold having huge runs!

Finally I disagree with your assessment of the Weekly Gold chart.

It is exactly where it should be for this Break Out move, There is a Doji, which indicates indecision and the possibility of a pull back, given I called the Break Out at $962 on the 2nd and it has sped up to as high as $1024 Intraday by the 17th, It is Bound to potentially have a pull back - $62 up in 14 trading days? Thats an average $4.42 daily.

This process of 3 steps forward and one back will happen all the way passed $1032, $1100, $1250 etc..

The Naysayers will be in force on every Pull back stating how far it has gone already, I am confident of that. People have not conceptualised at a Macro level the full scale of the QE numbers, their eye's glaze over when it is multiples of Billions/Trillions - The obligations to service the debt on these numbers don't become fairyland, just because day to day we don't feel like there is not much lending about personally and in the businesses we run. We are utterly 'crowded out' by Government Borrowing on an unheralded basis.

They only way these crazy numbers get handled is national government default on Debt (politically undesirable and unlikely), Chronic Tax increases combined with huge Fiscal expenditure cuts (political Suicide), Currency devaluation/Inflation (and combinations thereof as lethal cocktail mix, Latter two especially).

Welcome to Inverse Goldilocks Economy the Ying to Greenspans Yang. Low growth High Inflation ( while we unwind his 'productivity miracle' of rampant credit and liquidity with chronic indebtnedness and frugality).
 
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so explain the record contraction in the money supply? oh wait you cant coz your talking nonsense! so many people on this forum talk a good game yet they cant see past the blinkers of "printing money = omg inflation"

have you actually checked the cpi lately?
 
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